This chart is a little confusing but I'm attempting to show two sets of evidence that build the case for a drop in the ASX200 of 160 points to the support of ~5368 as a minimum movement.
The first set of information includes the blue arrows and the black resistance line at 58 points above the zero line on the MACD signal chart and the green text boxes. We can see that each time the blue MACD MA, hits the resistance line, reaches a peak and starts to drop, it was followed by a 160 point minimum. You can't see it correctly, and in this chart, the price feed is a little delayed, but just in the last few days, the blue MACD line has indeed peaked and has just started to roll over.
The second set of signals is represents my natural human instinct to determine patterns. This short signal is represented by the yellow ellipses and the blue A letters. What I'm seeing is a repetition of the price movement that occurred this time last year. Both yellow ellipses demonstrate similar price and MACD movements. Following the price movement in the yellow ellipse in Oct 2013, the price dropped by almost 300 points to the previous low (after immediately and quickly rising), destroying all the short position taken up by speculators . The question begs, will the same type of movement happen again and will the price drop to the previous low after a rapid price increase? The MA movement in the MACD chart is repeating itself as evidenced by the letter A.
The Australian economy is not firing all cylinders and there is a lot of talk about an Australian recession in 2015. There are a number of reasons for this which I won't go into now including Australia's main export Iron ore selling very cheaply as China's property market faces serious challenges. However, as we can see, the ASX is very close to record highs. This does not make any sense. The ASX200 highs are probably following the lead of the US markets, however it does not represent the the fundamentals of the Australian market. With the Australian dollar at historically high levels, I predict a correction in the ASX.
Human instinct will lead you in the trap, always, just let the chart speak. First correction was 2-leg, slower, last one was sharp with massive reversal and looks finished, because macd is HIGHER NOW than at last high, so do not expect second leg down - you are most probably in the position as blue arrow in march.
Just an opinion
maccabean
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I don't hold any asx200 positions. I believe it patterns because i believe in market cycles and I see a correlation between the seasons and price action and how the market reacts to certain economic stimuli. Please see my last few chart analysis, specifically the Nasdaq100 to see how correct my predictions have been.
look4edge
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i don`t cover it neither, i just meant, that your short setup to first target 160 p is very possible (march analogy), for more, you need to check weekly chart, ew or sth. else (not human instinct) as your macd is now higher and is not indicating second leg (but i am not expert on macd, last top is high but also very steep and therefore maybe not reliable)
anyway, you can get sth. else and hopefully lot bigger because of other reason or indication (like your cycles perception)
btw. i have setup for dax cca. 20% correction, will post it, based on current terminating flat irregular B in ABC correction and weekly patterns
will check your nasdaq, if revisiting ath si in the cards, do you have btk index as nasdaq driver?