Q: What has the highest probability of occurring?
After being one of the strongest performers in 2020 during the initial UK lockdown the stock lost over 30% of its value.
In 2021 it has staged a modest recovery but is still over 15% below its all time high requiring an over 20% rally.
There is well tested support at 8100p and resistance at 8775p.
There is 2 classic patterns 1 that has not validated. 1 that has validated.
The bull flag, with a breakout of 8775p, stop at 8100p, and projected target at 10150p. A risk-to-reward ratio of 2R.
The breakout from the bull flag needs to be confirmed by a close outwith both the flag and resistance. A difficult task therefore requiring more time to confirmation.
The double top, with a breakout of 8100p, and projected target at 7400p. Using a stop half the size of the range creates a 2R opportunity.
The stock also pays a 2.48% dividend semi-annually. Given the length of the setup this trade may run deep into 2022 to allow that dividend to be collected.
Although before that point there will be 2 earnings releases adding volatility to any potential positions held.
The short trade is therefore not of interest here however considering it has validated this may act as a catalyst for the long side. But again it is not yet validated.
After being one of the strongest performers in 2020 during the initial UK lockdown the stock lost over 30% of its value.
In 2021 it has staged a modest recovery but is still over 15% below its all time high requiring an over 20% rally.
There is well tested support at 8100p and resistance at 8775p.
There is 2 classic patterns 1 that has not validated. 1 that has validated.
The bull flag, with a breakout of 8775p, stop at 8100p, and projected target at 10150p. A risk-to-reward ratio of 2R.
The breakout from the bull flag needs to be confirmed by a close outwith both the flag and resistance. A difficult task therefore requiring more time to confirmation.
The double top, with a breakout of 8100p, and projected target at 7400p. Using a stop half the size of the range creates a 2R opportunity.
The stock also pays a 2.48% dividend semi-annually. Given the length of the setup this trade may run deep into 2022 to allow that dividend to be collected.
Although before that point there will be 2 earnings releases adding volatility to any potential positions held.
The short trade is therefore not of interest here however considering it has validated this may act as a catalyst for the long side. But again it is not yet validated.
Comment:
Clear rejection at 8775 resistance.
