Airlines, bottlenecks and COVID-19!

NYSE:BA   Boeing Company (The)
Have a close look at this very busy chart. There is a crisis in airline industry after COVID-19 struck. Some do not realise how serious this thing is. Expand and drag the chart a bit if everything does not fit nicely.

The airlines are connected up to many things. I could not include everything. But for basic GDP when the airlines are hit GDP and trade are hit. Of course a big part of air travel is the holiday and entertainment industries.

What his chart means really, is that a sizeable proportion of people won't be 'in the air' if they can't get a hotel or other accommodation. All that is very much linked up to ground transportation, and places of work (or entertainment).

Your leaders can 'open up the economy'. However, it'll be like wheels spinning on ice - no traction. I have to let my followers know that 'I don't rule the world'. You all need to talk to a chap who has golden hair. LOL!

I'm not flying anywhere for the next 18 months, even if I get an all expenses paid trip handed to me! Others can take their chances. The point is that lots of people may be thinking their life is more important than a holiday. Of course, if you saw protests in the UK and the USA, you would know that not everybody thinks like me.

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Comment: The International Air Transport Association on Tuesday 2020-06-09, said it expected the airline sector to also face a loss next year of about $15.8bn.

“Financially, 2020 will go down as the worst year in the history of aviation,” said Alexandre de Juniac, director general at Iata. “On average, every day of this year will add $230m to industry losses. In total that’s a loss of $84.3bn.”

Revenues are expected to fall 50 per cent to $419bn from $838bn in 2019. In 2021, revenues will rise to $598bn.

Some say that the FED can bail every airline out! Hats off to 'some'.

The reality is that airlines operate on very tight profit margins which depend on high volumes of travel by large numbers of people. That ain't happening again anytime soon.

The airlines have depended heavily on tourism, entertainment and commercial travel by businesses for their revenues. The virus - currently not killed or cured - means that there will continue to be a big damper on travel by air as we knew it.

In summary, my estimate (not prediction) is that airline stocks are toast for the next year.

FED balance sheet 42% of GDP @ 2020-01-26. Does money have value anymore? [Different perspective on the virus ]