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BAS55
Jan 3, 2021 12:56 AM

Doubling Down on BABA Long

Alibaba Group Holding LimitedNYSE

Description

Currently holding calls for Jan15 hedged with 220Jan15 puts incase it decides to go for that double bottom at 211.

Now I see either one of two cases happening here, if we compare to its historical trends;

Case 1: Similarly to 2017-2018, we see a short rally (2-3 weeks) followed by another double bottom retest at the 211 level. Ideal for medium term option holders to get a way out with profits and reinvest in the coming double bottom.

Case 2:
Similarly to the most recent correction, we see a huge volatile week after that candle that closed above 0.618 level where short term option holders have a chance to profit as well as lock in some shares if it did retest the 211 level during that week.

I do not see it breaking 211 whatsoever simply based on the history of the stock. Always stay open to all possibilities and outcomes nevertheless.


Please share your thoughts :)
NYSE:BABA
Comments
FamilyTreeInvesting
I won’t cut unless it breaks my weekly chart im expecting a Pull back tomorrow and maybe Tuesday with the Georgia elections coming into play but baba is oversold and should bounce
BAS55
@brianconrey79 so thats 210ish?
MGNCAPITALMARKETS
I agree BABA Buy under 219. We might see 209. I agree with you this is the range for the next 20 days at least
FamilyTreeInvesting
Now curious to see what happens with jack ma reported missing
BAS55
@brianconrey79 appreciate the input! This week will probably be make or break for our calls. Would you still ride them to expiration even if we had a consolidation week this week ? or would you take your losses and flip them to feb or march?
FamilyTreeInvesting
i like your analysis and similar to mine and on my daily RSI is sitting at 34 which is lower than i wanted for my 250C/JAN15 as i wasnt expecting as much of a sell off on friday that we got. I do not think we retest the 211 either as that would break my channel. The china delisting news could spook some people too but interesting to see what this week holds.
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