The exchange rate reached close to the correction level of 135 usd. The first rising wave structure is expected to reach 160 usd, and then a correction is probable to 149 usd levels. Then we predict the second rising wave structure to the level of 190 usd. At this level we expect a longer sideways motion. With two values between 167-189 usd. Then we are waiting for an outbreak.
Alternatively... based on the current daily trend (quite visible).. more travel south is the probability. Will explore further in a screencast coming up. :)
meszaros
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@Captain_Walker, Thanks for the comment. Thanks for joining a strategy. At the same time, the last couple of days prove that your exchange rate analysis is better than mine. I'm looking at fractals. The current movement is also the beginning of a fractalization. But not sure. In fact, it may be stuck. Then your theory will be the winning one. We'll see. I will not bet my own now, unless the exchange rate builds another bottom.
Captain_Walker
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@meszaros, Nice. I'm delighted that you are receptive and contemplative. These are excellent qualities to have as a trader. It's of course not about which strategy wins, but which (or combination of) succeeds in which markets at various times. That's how I see it.
My personal war-chest has a stash of various 'weapons' from which I select and match to individual markets, though my main 'weapon' is using the trend against itself. I use the principles of Aikido in trading - how crazy is that!? LOL. You don't get that sort of thing on trading courses AFAIK (I do not provide or sell anything to anybody).
But this is no mere martial arts context. So, when I go into 'battle' I take one or two main weapons and some others to help out, using them as and when necessary. Thus my charts seem to be covered in indicators. Traditionally, this has been said to be bad practice. In general that's right as some traders get confused by mixed 'signals'. I don't have that problem.
I command my weapons. They don't tell me what to do. :)) We're 'weapons hot' on this one! LOL. Of course, the markets always have surprises in store so I'll anticipate and limit damage if the 'forces' go against my 'exploitative attack'. :) I can't predict what will happen at any time in the future - I don't need to.
Sultan_of_Chart
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What makes you think it will break out of the clear downward channel it is in right now? China is getting slammed and US markets are fragile along the 200 day MA. I agree that BABA is undervalued fundamentally so I bought more at 147 but in the shorter term, what's stopping it from another leg down?
meszaros
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@astryer, Thanks for the comment. You are right in the fundamentals. First, I trade fractal shapes. At the moment, such a build-up is visible. Specifically, it's just the beginning. If it is further built, the option shown in the figure has a higher chance. If fear over China is overwhelmed, you will probably be righteous and see further points. Next week we'll be smarter :)
Sultan_of_Chart
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@meszaros, Thanks. I'd love to see an update of this in a few weeks once the dust has settled (hopefully) from the global selloff