Technical analysis used is called Elliott Wave technical analysis.
We can see an almost textbook 5 waves movement down.
I have done a quick check of the validity of the count, based on the rules and:
1. Wave 2 never moves the start of Wave 1 2. Wave 3 is not the shortest out of the 3 impulse waves W1,W3,W5 3. Wave 4 never enters the price territory of Wave 1
All checked out confirming the validity of the count.
The Fibonacci sequence is the mathematical basis of Elliott Wave Analysis.Based on that and on the guidelines I can see two scenarios for Alibaba and the ending of Wave 5
1. Scenario Nr 1 - Wave 5 ending where it is now. Based on the common Fib extension of 0.382 one of the most common one for Wave 5 . This one found support 3 times in the past month at this level.
2. Scenario Nr2 - Based on the guidelines when we have an impulse wave and Wave3 is the extended one, which is the case so far, Wave 5 and Wave 1 tend towards equality. This equality would happed, guess where at 0.618 golden ratio.
I continue to be amazed by the precision of the Elliott Wave Model.
Disclaimer: This is my analysis and does not constitute financial advice.
Check this out! My analysis done in January went exactly to the dot! I said it is most likely to check the $70-$80 level and it did. So we are now in a correction but the move down is not completed yet.
WavesInvesting
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If you hear something about "delisting" from China or USA the stock could go to $70 overnight, otherwise how do you explain a stock easily valued at $300 based on the financials trading at $110 ? So I think it is plausible. I am not saying it will defiantly go there but there is a perfect plausible target.
MeneerHandsome
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70$ means yet another loss of 40% of the market cap.
I'd be surprised given the current cash position of 70billion.