BAC (and the rest of the banking industry) has a rough few months ahead. The major institution has seen solid gains over the past year and is about to relinquish them all. The major indication this downtrend is about to pick up steam is seen as the 50 day moving average is ready to cross below the 200 day moving average, a major bearish sign known as the death cross. Price on the weekly candle has managed to close significantly below this intersection point, a sign that a significant decline could come sooner than later as there is very little support below the current price. Seen on the chart above, RSI is also headed south with no sign of retracement anytime soon. Money Flow is in a steep downtrend as well. I anticipate BAC seeing at least a 20% decline in the coming months. The last time BAC had a similar set up with the 50 day moving average crossing over the 200 day moving average, the stock fell 33% in 6 weeks. I have picked up November and December puts for BAC (and JPM because the chart and my prediction is basically the same).
Comment: While writing this, I was foolishly unaware of the upcoming earnings reports for financial companies. Since the vast majority of them beat expectations soundly, the stock has begun a short term rally. However, I still believe the financial sector will see significant downside before the end of the year. Technical indicators are still very bearish.
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