I Would Love to Be Bullish on BAT, But Indicators Say Otherwise
Decided to post an analysis of BAT as well, since it is a coin that I have traded recently. I added to my BAT stash at 16 cents/around 2700 sats, but I sold at 4100 sats recently because of what I saw in the chart. I like this token a lot, but I decided to take profit for now, because the risks with this coin seem to be too high. Day traders love it because of its extreme volatility, while simultaneously staying in a confined range between 2000 and 6000 satoshis.
Unfortunately, the token has just made a lower high after a lower low. This alone is bearish. Hope for this coin is that there could be a new uptrend line (blue), which would be confirmed by a nice bounce between 2600 and 2700. I would be looking for re-entry there. There is also the possibility for a bounce in the 3450 area that could take us above the newly formed red resistance, but I have a feeling sellers will want to take this down further than that, based on past performance. If we bounce there, we could then start to form a nice bull flag that would eventually target the long term 6000 resistance. This is the ideal setup for bulls, as it gives time for the RSI to reset as well.
Best case scenario, BAT actually blasts up from here and breaks 6000, but I see that as being unlikely. Breaking the ATH would be a great short term long, as it is likely it would break this range once and for all. I have a feeling we will need to be patient for this to happen though. It's also possible that BAT will consolidate a bit from here in a bull flag before going higher. This may happen if BTC continues to hold strong. This is shown in the maroon squiggle.
Worst case scenario, BAT has begun a new downward channel, outlined by the two light red lines. This would put the next bottom at approximately 1000 sats, which is a great long term entry point to look for a reversal.
Conditional Buy Targets:
3400-3450 if we see a strong bounce here that breaks the red downtrend line
6000 only on confirmed breakout, stops below.
2600-2700 on bounce
1000 lowest target, best long term entry
Conditional Sell Targets
3800-4500 (current)
Break below 3500 for short
6000 resistance (if we make it up there)
10000-12000 If 6000 falls convincingly and BTC goes on a run
This is not investment advice and I am not a qualified financial advisor. You chose what to do with your money. This is just how I see the market for this coin. These are all conditional trades, but with an overall short term bearish bias. I think it's better to trade based on possible scenarios and setups. This is how I think about it and it helps to write my ideas down. To some it might seem odd, but it has worked for me.
-Victor Cobra
Unfortunately, the token has just made a lower high after a lower low. This alone is bearish. Hope for this coin is that there could be a new uptrend line (blue), which would be confirmed by a nice bounce between 2600 and 2700. I would be looking for re-entry there. There is also the possibility for a bounce in the 3450 area that could take us above the newly formed red resistance, but I have a feeling sellers will want to take this down further than that, based on past performance. If we bounce there, we could then start to form a nice bull flag that would eventually target the long term 6000 resistance. This is the ideal setup for bulls, as it gives time for the RSI to reset as well.
Best case scenario, BAT actually blasts up from here and breaks 6000, but I see that as being unlikely. Breaking the ATH would be a great short term long, as it is likely it would break this range once and for all. I have a feeling we will need to be patient for this to happen though. It's also possible that BAT will consolidate a bit from here in a bull flag before going higher. This may happen if BTC continues to hold strong. This is shown in the maroon squiggle.
Worst case scenario, BAT has begun a new downward channel, outlined by the two light red lines. This would put the next bottom at approximately 1000 sats, which is a great long term entry point to look for a reversal.
Conditional Buy Targets:
3400-3450 if we see a strong bounce here that breaks the red downtrend line
6000 only on confirmed breakout, stops below.
2600-2700 on bounce
1000 lowest target, best long term entry
Conditional Sell Targets
3800-4500 (current)
Break below 3500 for short
6000 resistance (if we make it up there)
10000-12000 If 6000 falls convincingly and BTC goes on a run
This is not investment advice and I am not a qualified financial advisor. You chose what to do with your money. This is just how I see the market for this coin. These are all conditional trades, but with an overall short term bearish bias. I think it's better to trade based on possible scenarios and setups. This is how I think about it and it helps to write my ideas down. To some it might seem odd, but it has worked for me.
-Victor Cobra
Comment:
Low buy area should be closer to 1200 sats, according to my line. Could also wick lower (if we manage to get all the way down there).
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Currently butting up against that falling wedge resistance. If we break out, it could give us some room to retest the more long term overhead resistance, now around 4300-4400. If we break down, the short term target is 3400-3450.
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Breaking out a bit, but this could just be a quick wick above resistance. If we continue to hold this 3950-4000 area and move higher, my short term bearish targets will be invalidated for now, and I would look towards 4200-4400 for sell signals.
If we blast above there with volume, a test of the resistance zone around 5350-6000 is in the cards.
If we blast above there with volume, a test of the resistance zone around 5350-6000 is in the cards.
Comment:
Looks like we won't be going lower (for the time being), but watch for that resistance. We could be repeating the double top fractal from July, in which case the lower targets will be back in play. If we go above that, my short term perspective will be completely invalidated.
Comment:
Volume is declining a bit. I doubt this has the power to break that resistance above, but we shall see. Look for a potential drop soon. Still out of position on this coin. If we break above 4400-4500 convincingly, I will re-evaluate.
Trade closed: stop reached:
WOW! Wasn't expecting that! Amazing pump for those who caught it. I'll be looking for the pullback, as there will have to be one.
Comment:
We stopped pretty much at the giant overhead resistance for now.
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If we can't get above the long term resistance and paint a higher high on the RSI, then it's still a sign of weakness. For now, the RSI is showing signs of weakness with a potential bearish divergence. Excited to see how this develops though. Sometimes crypto defies all logic.
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We are now confirming previous resistance as new support, but if it falls back down decisively below 4500, it wouldn't be a good sign as this is still a lower high. Still out of this one for now, but may post an updated chart soon! This could be a good long entry with a stop loss below 4400 with targets at 5400, 6000, and 7000.
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UPDATE:
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Just posting here as a final update. I stuck firm with my decision to stay out after selling at 4100. Thought it would be a good long term move since BAT has no long term uptrend. This analysis is once again valid. The Coinbase pump pushed it up to the long term resistance, but it got rejected pretty hard. I was pretty sure this would happen, so that's why I took profit at an acceptable level and stayed out. One day, maybe it'll break the range, but for now I have removed this coin from my long term portfolio. Newest analysis:
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