TheTrendLineInvestor

Does The CHART Look Good or Bad? Can You Guess the Stock?

NASDAQ:BBRY   BLACKBERRY LTD
This is a WEEKLY mystery chart of "XXXX"

There are times when I am going through a list of charts and I am so focused on the candles that the company name doesn't even register until I consciously look for it.. Does this ever happen to you??

This is one of those charts. I have looked at this chart for several weeks now. Each time, if I have a very recent history showing, I comment to myself that this one is looking ok. Then I look at the symbol and I talk myself out of the investment. In retrospect, I talked myself out of a 10% winner. And that is only since the beginning of the year.

Much of the left side of the chart is not included here. Much of the media coverage of this company is not favorable. But someone is buying it...
How do you handle situations like this? Do you ignore the symbol and just look at the chart? Do you take a chance on it even though just saying the company name or its symbol leaves a bad taste in your mouth? Do you skip over the chart because you paid attention to the symbol?

Here is what I am going to do. I am going to invest in this stock if it closes above the horizontal resistance line. At the time I invest, I will set a stop loss a little under that same horizontal resistance line. This will keep any losses to a minimum. I understand that my stop may be too tight but I am ok with that. If I get stopped out and then the stock goes back above the horizontal resistance line I can always try again if I want to.

For those of you saying, "you could set your stop loss at the green uptrend line". You are right, I could. But I won't. The green uptrend line is currently 10% or more below a potential entry price. If the investment doesn't work out, I could lose 10% or more. That is just too much for me. I would rather lose a couple commissions and maybe 2-3% of my capital if the stock doesn't cooperate.

If you also want to try this investment, please, be my guest. But you will have to figure out the symbol first. If anyone puts the correct symbol in the comments to this post I will let everyone know puzzle is solved. If you just have to know before everyone else, just ask and I will PM it to you. This little exercise is supposed to put a smile on your face. Not make you want to pull your hair out.


Trade What You See! Not what you think, or feel, or hope, or ...
This is a great rule for technical investors but it can be a very hard rule to follow at times. Hope you are having a great weekend.


I guess I didn't get rid of the name of this company after all. Or maybe TradingView doesn't allow "Mystery Charts" :)
Oh well. THE MYSTERY IS SOLVED.

** March 9 Update **
This morning BBRY             has opened down. Now you have another way to play this stock . And this time, it is even more cut & dry to me.

The green uptrend line is at about $9.75 ish             today. The stock is trading just above that price as I hammer away at my keyboard. The green uptrend line defines the uptrend. So if I was invested in this stock , my "line in the sand" would be the green uptrend line.

At this point, If I wanted to go long BBRY             , I would buy in at this level. I would look for the stock to stay above the green uptrend line on a closing basis (for the week). If BBRY             closes below the green uptrend line (for the week) I would be out. As long as it stays above the green uptrend line I could stay invested.

At this point, if I wanted to go short BBRY             , I would not buy at this level. I would wait until there is a close below the green uptrend line.
(If you look above, you will be reminded that I said wait up there too. High probability trades involve waiting for the trigger. Not guessing... )
Once BBRY             closes below the green uptrend line I would then take a shot on the short side. If BBRY             comes back above the green uptrend line in a short period of time, the short trade would be over.

Mikhoul
2 years ago
Your are investing in "Trouble"... BBRY is just moved by RUMORS & HOPES (Emotion) nothing factual.
Good Luck
Reply
TheTrendLineInvestor Mikhoul
2 years ago
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I respect your opinion. And I am not above agreeing that you may be right by the way...
Reply
dawarravi
2 years ago
You are right on with the analysis. However, BBRY as you said scares the hell out of me as well. I am right now torn between the technical and fundamental sides of me. But your strategy seems like a low risk, high reward strategy and I might give it a shot.
Reply
PepinoPepi
2 years ago
This is probably the best investment in tech you can make over the next 3-5 years. I see bbry moving up to $50+ in a couple of years. Fantastic mgmt, strong execution, revenue growth, software focus, warm and warmer reception on company announcements. Funny to read the non-believers, Apple was such a company just a few years ago! Everyone was telling me how the company had no future. Anyways, like your strategy, but I am all in on this name here!
Reply
dawarravi PepinoPepi
2 years ago
Where is the "strong execution" part coming from in your comment? Do you have any thing to prove that?
Reply
PepinoPepi dawarravi
2 years ago
Yes, plenty. Simply take a look at operating performance over the past year. It is obvious! Company has stabilized and positioned itself for growth!
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PepinoPepi PepinoPepi
2 years ago
and ignore sell side analysts who manipulate the stock. GS today announcing a downgrade - really? Same people who were selling you subprime crap, telling you how great it is, and then behind your back shorted the hell out of it. Would never believe or have confidence in such an organization!
Reply
TheTrendLineInvestor PepinoPepi
2 years ago
Gentlemen, may I interject something? Please remember there is a distinct difference between "Technical Analysis" and "Fundamental Analysis"... If you go back and read anything I wrote you will notice I like to invest with technical analysis and technical setups. As I read Pepino's comment, I can tell that he is "all in" on BBRY because of his fundamental analysis or at least his fundamental beliefs about the company's future success. Now I could go on for days about the pros and cons of each method of investing as I see them but please realize that one is not better than the other necessarily but one method may work better for some. Let's just all agree that when technical analysis and fundamental analysis tell investors the same thing that is a great time to be in a stock. I will say this about BBRY. IF the fundamentals Pepino speaks of are correct, then he is right to be "all in on this name here". But the Technicals, at the moment, may not be saying BBRY is a buy. So technically, I would not want to be long the stock at this point in time. How can I say ths? Well take a look at today's closing price. It is below the bottom of the wedge in the chart. Remember the "wedge" rules of "Technical Analysis". The trade is to follow the price out of the wedge. If it breaks below the wedge then short it. If it breaks above the wedge then go long. Pepino, I am not saying you are wrong to be long the stock. I am just saying that based on the way I trade & invest, I would not be at this point. Hope you both are very successful investors using your own methods may they be technical or fundamental or a combination of the two. :)
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