Just some trendlines drawn. Currently, some significant ma levels on COINBASE:BTCUSD and BITFINEX:BCHUSD 6hr time frame have crossed over bearish. Additionally, the daily macd has also crossed bearish for both. I would avoid an entry at the moment, and wait to see when the bottom is in. I know my line are messy, but my expectation is a drop to around 1050-1150 area. Will have to see how the weekend unfolds. I saw the correction unfolding on the 8th, and exited much of my positions at that point. Stay calm and good luck.
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I wouldn't go in on this recent spike. We just came off a significant drop, and a pullback can be expected to stabilize before dropping further. Bitcoin ma levels and other indicators are holding to the downside, which always has a similar affect on other coins.
I will say that the current levels are poised for a dangerous drop, and would recommend sitting out these next few days to see how things develop. Fiat can always be parlayed into a profit, so missing a good trade isn't the end of the world, and at present this isn't even a good trade.
The only interesting thing about the swings these past few days is the potential for a cup and handle developing.
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Potential short term reversal zone. However, momentum is towards the downside, and fighting against gravity is a dangerous proposition. Trade at your own risk (reversal volume and implementing tighter stop/loss).
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We did in fact see a slight jump in price over the weekend, but as expected, the momentum didn't hold, and we are back at previous levels. My expectation is a drop to February lows of around 800-900, after which we should see a more significant reversal.
This analysis is based on significant daily ma levels for BCH crossing bearish, new trendlines I have drawn, and other indicators. BTC daily levels had already crossed over bearish nearly 2 weeks ago, and now we are seeing the rest of the market showing incredible weakness. As always, use your own judgement, be careful, and best of luck.
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Nice to see when your analysis/expectation meets reality:
"Based on what I'm seeing, my initial thought was that we would see a low of 800-900 (probably around 850-880) before any reversal"
The question now is what comes next. BCH is currently squeezed between some significant ema levels, and there's potential for a major move either up or down. Now, I know people who read this go "well of course it'll go up or down". However, my reasons for saying so is that we are at a point where the odds of either scenario are relatively equal, and any movement in either direction should trigger significant movement. With that being said, we are technically in a downward trajectory, so that makes a break down more likely. I would lock in some profits and keep stop losses ready. I expect a break up to hit the $1200~ mark, with a break down reaching the $680~ area. Best of luck.
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We did in fact reach peak at the $1200 mark, after which we saw a break down to the $1050 area. If you look at my chart, you will notice that we have not really broken the downtrend, just tested the top of it. On the positive side, we also tested and held the bottom of the ascending trendline.
We are currently flirting with the daily 50 ema, and in order to expect further uptrend movement we would need to close above it a second time. However, I do not expect that too happen. Testing the top of the downtrend without seeing follow through, and without closing above key levels soon thereafter, is generally a sign of weakness. I had a buy signal at $880, and my sell target was $1200. I'd stay in fiat for now.
At present, a break downwards should find some initial support at the $1080 ascending trendline, with support below that being near the $1000~ area. If we do break upwards, I expect to hit the $1550~ area. Best of luck
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Very weak attempts at testing resistance. Downtrend is holding strong. Current support at $625~, with next support area being around $550~. I have an initial buy order set up at $540 for the lower support area.
Daily RSI is currently slightly oversold, but in weak times like this we can easily drop further when buyers aren't looking to enter at this point. Any bounce would find resistance at $750~. Best of luck.
Looking for an eventual drop to the $550 area - we'll see.
Gruntle
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@london55555, Very likely, and I'll be looking out for indication of when that the level is in play. Certainly we have yet to see the true bottom. Your call on a BCH short at $1800 was spot on.
The trend is my friend, and I respect it.
Gruntle
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@london55555, Looking like the 520-600 range is a distinct possibility for next week. Will have to see how the next day or two plays out before I have a better idea of direction. BCH definitely has room to drop.
NewYork888
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@Gruntle, Yes we covered everything as you probably saw but i'd say you're very correct here. Good luck great charts.
Gruntle
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Instead of seeing volatility we are running incredibly flat after another drop on the 22nd. Question here is whether we see a continuation downwards, or a reversal. I don't like to go by gut feel, because that's a surefire way to lose. If you don't have a gameplan or direction, than it's far better to be patient and wait till the signals present themselves. That is where I'm currently at.
Based on what I'm seeing, my initial thought was that we would see a low of 800-900 (probably around 850-880) before any reversal, but this flat movement puts in play a larger drop. If we continue to run flat we may see a larger drop to the $700 area. Another option is more flat movement leading to the 900-920 area before seeing a reversal. In either case, any reversal ought to be short term only, as long term signals and timeframes are trending down. Best of luck.