The price action for this chart is defined by the average of BCHABC across 4 exchanges(Poloniex, Bitfinex, Binance, and Bitstamp) added to the average of BCHSV across 3 exchanges(Bitfinex, Binance, and Poloniex). I copied the pre-fork price action from BCHUSD @ bithumb(where BCHABC is currently trading at about a $150 premium), appended it to this chart and meticulously lined up several key swing highs and swing lows so I could do some somewhat accurate analysis on the chart. In hindsight, I should have used a vertical line to make sure I didn't mess up the horizontal scale as I was adjusting the pre-fork data to fit correctly.
Personally, I'm bullish on BCHABC and bearish on BCHSV. If one considers the possibility of BCH technically being the original chain of bitcoin as NIST claims, in my opinion it's easy to understand why this fork was so important and why it seemed to have had such an impact on the crypto market as a whole. My bullishness on BTC in the short-term is currently somewhat dependent on BCHABC continuing to win the battle. To make the chart a lot more interesting, I've overlaid the individual prices of BCHABC and BCHSV. It will be quite interesting(to me) to see BCHABC at binance react to the TA from this chart...
Bitcoin's latest bear trap hit the downtrend line on my falling wedge perfectly, currently bouncing right off(see the related "personalized bitcoin index" chart and press play)...
Note: As with my related chart I just mentioned, in this version, I sacrifice accuracy of the volume indicator to get a slightly more accurate price reading, correcting the average price against any movement of USDT/USD at Kraken. In a couple weeks or so after Coinbase finally stops holding the coins hostage and the dust settles, I'll follow it up with another one with a more accurate volume indicator that will either disregard USDT pairs altogether or otherwise not worry about what happens with USDT.
Current formula: (BINANCE:BCHABCUSDT*KRAKEN:USDTUSD+BITFINEX:BABUSD+POLONIEX:BCHABCUSDC+BITSTAMP:BCHUSD)/4+(BITFINEX:BSVUSD+BINANCE:BCHSVUSDT*KRAKEN:USDTUSD+POLONIEX:BCHSVUSDC)/3
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A 15m version with a couple modifications from @SineBoyWaveMan
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Looking at BCH as if it had never forked, currently sitting on a 1.27 extension of significant medium-term swing. This along with my analysis on BTCUSDSHORTS and BTCUSDLONGS lead me to remain more bullish than neutral at this level, at least in the short-term.
1) Trade and technical analysis need to be simple. Trade analysis is like guessing a word... it starts with T and has a K at the end and 4 letters... T A S K? T O O K? T I C K?...
2) TA is linked to reality, not to an alternative dimension. You need fundamentals to move the market, and not charts.
3) TA is linked to market mood. And market mood has some rules:
a) offer and demand,
b) rumours are stronger than news - when you know the news, the opportunity had gone...
c) the looser number > the winner number. Yes, if everybody says buy, better sell. In a zero sum game like the market, loosers are the majority.
There isn't a best TA technique... I like Elliott Wave because it considers traders' mood. Moving averages, oscillators, trendlines, volumes are about mood too...
BTC is too oversold in my opinion... all indicators are pointing to a recover. And with so many bears now, and a clear support at 5.100, it is not a bad idea to long it. But we need a confirmation - I believe Daily high Nov,15th candle as a good entry point, and its low as a good SL. Daily 100 SMA at 6.400 is a good TP. A 500 risk and a 800 profit. The TP level is at 76.4% retracement from October 15th to November 15th. It gaves us 18 days to achieve target, near December 3rd.
And yes, I could be wrong...
UnknownUnicorn3605128
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tomtourettes
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@YungSwan, I guess we'll see. You won the last battle, but I definitely feel you're pressing your luck at this point :)
2) TA is linked to reality, not to an alternative dimension. You need fundamentals to move the market, and not charts.
3) TA is linked to market mood. And market mood has some rules:
a) offer and demand,
b) rumours are stronger than news - when you know the news, the opportunity had gone...
c) the looser number > the winner number. Yes, if everybody says buy, better sell. In a zero sum game like the market, loosers are the majority.
There isn't a best TA technique... I like Elliott Wave because it considers traders' mood. Moving averages, oscillators, trendlines, volumes are about mood too...
BTC is too oversold in my opinion... all indicators are pointing to a recover. And with so many bears now, and a clear support at 5.100, it is not a bad idea to long it. But we need a confirmation - I believe Daily high Nov,15th candle as a good entry point, and its low as a good SL. Daily 100 SMA at 6.400 is a good TP. A 500 risk and a 800 profit. The TP level is at 76.4% retracement from October 15th to November 15th. It gaves us 18 days to achieve target, near December 3rd.
And yes, I could be wrong...