Antminer S9 ROI: Bitmain vs Retail over 1, 1.5 & 2 yrs
Lastly after some research I determine the average lifespan of a miner is just 1 to 2 years (https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S254...(18)30177-6).
Area plot: Bitmain
Elec: 0.06 USD/kWh
Model: Antminer S9
Hrate: 13.5 TH /s
Unit cost: USD 500 (Bitmain), USD 900 (retail)
Operating time: 24 hrs /day, 365 days/year
It's a bit of an abstract metric, but I think it's useful. Basically there are 2 parts to expenses: running costs (electricity) and material costs (mining machines). I wanted to work out the where the ratio of income/expenses (ROI) was with respect to the break even level (white line). But to do that we need to agree over what period we pay off those material costs because they are really just one-off expenses and not incurred everyday like electricity costs. So if I want to pay them off within 1 year then, for example, I'll have to put about twice as much of my daily income towards paying the debt than if I decide to pay the machines off over 2 years. The upside is that I will have paid off the debt earlier.
Of course in a bull market I can pay off the acquisition costs much quicker (maybe in just 2 or three months).
The area plots apply to Bitmain. The lines with dotted markers apply to Bitmain's customers who buy their miners (retail). We can see that if you buy an S9 now you won't be able to pay off the material costs in one year at the current Bitcoin price as the green dotted line is under the break even level. But so long as the price doesn't drop further, you can still pay off the debt within 1.5 years.
However the longer you take to pay off material costs, the more likely you mining rig will become obsolete because a newer, much more efficient rig has been released. Or maybe your rig will just die because running 24/7/365 the operational life might be max. 2 years.
Hope that helps. Any questions please ask.
If you look at the lifetime of a GPU, that is about 8-10 years if you don't overheat and do a 75-80 tdp. I think investing in a GPU (which would still have value if crypto suddenly totally crashes) is a much safer option here. I believe FPGA's will therefore regain the interest. You just need people that really understand how that programming works. Nontheless, if I got the picture here at these prices it is a sh*t investment to go for s9 antminer atm.
The lifetime of your GPU's is very depending on how you treat them (Temp, not always on, Power limitation, etc....)