Time for some wild speculation, looking at where we might be in a year, if the bulls have their way. The next "reward halving" coming in July 2016 could easily fuel another bubbly rally (whether you think that's a valid reason or not :P)
I've been using this dusty old fork for a really long time now, and at this weekly scale, there's a lot of wiggle room. So don't complain about it not fitting perfectly, or how the wicks seem off - because this is price data from blockchain.info, and doesn't include all the price action (AFAIK). There's no "right way" to fit the fork at this scale. I just find it useful to try and identify the super-long-term growth trendlines and potential channel harmonics.
Today, our resident chikun-herder, @Fontas made a bold prediction in chat of BTC reaching 120K in two years. I thought I'd dust off this old chart and see how such an outrageous forecast could play out. While I couldn't really make sense of 120K on this chart, I did find the trajectory from here to 12K plausible (just a tenth, but still juicy :P), especially looking back at the history of the other mega bubbles in BTC's lifespan. And the timing of such a target would put us in June 2016, exactly 5 years after the first mega bubble, and also eerily aligned with the "33 week cycle" that has framed the larger movements for years (see the 1,2,3,4 columns)
I also scribbled the pink line to show what another "double-bubble" scenario would look like according to this timeframe, if we to repeat the combination bull runs of 2013. We'd hit maybe $2,000 in october before pulling back for the second push.
Check back next summer, but place your bets now, because if this is even remotely correct, we've got a 48X profit train getting started...
Comment
⋅
Well, it's only a year late, but maybe this is the summer we make it to 12K?
Comment
⋅
Better late than never? At least when you're hodling... ;)
Comments
xdwingdx
⋅
looks like a good time to buy based on this chart.
Hello, good analysis, thank you for that. If I look at it in EW terms you can see 1 complete in June 2011, the three in Nov 2013 and now the 4 and indeed the 5 coming... Later this evening I will try to check this more thoroughly. Bert
makeskita
⋅
Oh god, is it finally stuck? 4.5 years this has been my true north :(
makeskita
⋅
Nope, still working
SorinBlajan
⋅
i love your work. many thanks
Belcara
⋅
wonderful....you still hit your target....awesome
Jameve
⋅
Nice job, hope you made some coin after the mt gox debacle
Bonavest
⋅
So do you think this current upswing is going to mimic the the previous 2013 moves? That would mean a push to $50-60k then a pullback for a run up to 200k ?!
Jameve
⋅
@Bonavest, play it by ear, dont lose another 30k loan