This doesn't say what direction the top will be relative to now, it just says that this time period will be a top. We can set a higher high above $500, or a lower high below $500, but if history were to repeat (again) we would be seeing a local top around the bitcoin halving coming up this summer.
The next few weeks will dictate the trend we will be on for the incoming year leading up to the next halving IMO . We exited the 2015 ranging market with $300 as our major resistance turned support, so dropping below before bouncing up this June would be quite ominous.
Of course, because I'm publishing this, the law of predictions state that I will be completely wrong and nothing at all will match up from any point going forward. That's just how these things work, eh?
I am also publishing this chart from a QUANDL dataset to get the all-time price history, hopefully this will playback properly in the future.
Tick tock. Will update again as we enter February.
Short squeeze is over now. Time will tell where the next few weeks take us through this date. Sideways is the best case for bulls.