So, this is reality. Yes, crypto is a long-term big bull run that’s nowhere near global adoption levels. That is the truth. However, there’s a saying everyone has heard before:
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
Time frame is what matters. Over the course of 2018, I’m sure we’ll see even greater parabolic growth in crypto. The question is, if markets correct, can you survive until then?
I survived the September and October bear markets. I didn’t trade it particularly well and took some pretty big hits to my positions and wealth and even though in the end everything is fine and I have quite solid gains for the year, the losses generated then cost me gains I can’t recover during this bull run.
Here’s a reality check for you if you’re one of the “lol it’s crypto noob markets correct noob” camp.
Price just went from $4,100 --> $1,600 in 2 days 6 hours.
We just experienced a substantially more violent correction than October panic was. This is not unique to Bitcoin Cash , as all markets suffered the same fate with the exception of a few outlier shitcoins.
What it does tell you though is that the bull run is over until proven otherwise.
This is a key premise that you must accept.
The fastest way to lose money trading is to be trading in the wrong direction.
This Idea is a longer-term idea and does not comprise a shorter-term trading strategy. I will be posting shorter-term trades while also updating this one.
I am not saying that this pattern will happen, but amidst major market correction, it is something you absolutely must be prepared for.
People have smugly forgotten or don't know what "buying the dip" is about when the trend is no longer up.
Unfortunately for Bitcoin Cash , until something fundamental diverges, it will correct as well as BTFee drags all markets with it.
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$2,800 is a key area that must be regained. Stay calm and stay patient. Things look recovering, but keep in mind they can be knocked down with great ease.
We're now sitting at a key moment where we have to monitor price action and decide what to do with core position.
More bull run, or bull trap before monster dump?
Always so hard to say, especially with crypto.
Right now I feel optimistic, but let's see how the day plays out.
It's a bit of a conundrum because of the price action on the BCHBTC pair at the moment. I'll let you make a decision how to handle it.
If you need to sell to pay expenses for the new year, now is the safe time. If you have strong hands, there may be better times.
It's very difficult, but try not to make decisions on shorter time frames.
$2,500 is next area to look for bounce if no immediate bounce here.
Long story short, I don't like that price action at all and although I feel like I'm going to get faked out in the next 12-48 hours quite often, for the purposes of a balanced strategy I've decided to sell a very small portion of my core position on this bounce.
That being said, keep in mind I bought most of my coins at $350 and am already effectively trading this position for free in 100% profits.
Your situation and entry point may be and likely is different.
Bitcoin Cash is the strongest coin on the market and will break Bitcoin Legacy, Litecoin, Ethereum, and Monero in 2018.
But, keep in mind bull runs cool and come to an end and it can and will take a few months for them to recover. In the absence of a Cashening or Dragonslaying scenario, Bitcoin Cash will follow the rest of the market down as whales steal everyone's money amidst panic and capitulation.
Frankly, if/when I can buy and pay for more things irl I will be considerably less inclined to sell. I am not particularly fiat heavy, for obvious reasons, so what do I do if market corrects to $1,400 over night and isn't getting back up for 2-3 months?
When i weigh all considerations both fundamental, technical, and personal, and make the decision to take profits, it's for an on-balance 51%+ settlement decision.
Because I've decided that's the way to handle it, and I can handle it at a reduced portion size, if it rocketships afterwards, well, I couldn't care less.
It will annoy me and I will feel angry for like 2 hours, but that is an okay cost for correct macro-level decision making, in my opinion.
It's about eliminating risk, and especially eliminating risk of ruin.
They call it bull trap/complacency for a reason.
BCHBTC trading pair is the most notable, still looking like it's due for a break out.
We'll have to wait and see what happens, but nothing is looking all that bullish on USD pairs at the moment.
BTC is going up.
Super short term though. We'll have to see what happens.
Multitasking and Christmas.
Many bearish divergences right now indeed.
Very choppy. Staying at $2,700 is it bullish, or bearish? It's very difficult to say.
Long-term focus advised.
Difficult spot to trade. BTC looks like it's mooning and is going to continue to moon.
$2,500 USD is key spot to hold.
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Bitmex moved their Bitcoin Cash in the last hour or two.
Total sum is about 13,000 BCH. Xapo was 560,000 by comparison.
We now trade below the 0.618 and it's becoming resistance. That is more bearish. The more time goes on like this the less that the trend is up and the more that the trend is down.
I took profits on this trade 3-4 days ago at $2,700 and haven't traded it at all since. However, I also haven't withdrawn that money. If price exceeds $3,000, I will. Otherwise I'm going to wait and see what happens. It's kind of like a margin self short.
Trading this is very difficult and choppy on short term time frames. BTC is not bullish, either.
Keep in mind when it comes to BTC that the hysteria around "in a parabola the corrections become smaller and shorter xD" argument is indeed the truth.
That extreme parabola is also the end of a cycle, however. After accumulation comes distribution.
Bitcoin Cash has the best fundamentals on the entire market, period, but right now everything is vulnerable to what BTFee does.
That's why BCHUSD pumped and BTCUSD didn't follow.
I don't believe there's any fundamental news to back this short of the triangle breakout.
But they just printed 100MM Tether 3 minutes ago, so...
Please don't be deceived by Ripple. It was same nonsense with IOTA a few weeks ago.
Ripple, ZCash, and Bitcoin Core are the three core cryptos of Digital Currency Group, which are a group that Axa/Bildeberg funds that is alongside Blockstream.
Always keep that in mind when facing these situations. It's all one big play.
Markets are no longer in an uptrend until proven otherwise.
Will have to do a new post as this one is old. Greed is how they get you to part with your money on the way up and fear is how they get you to part with your money on the way down.
The only reason people ignorantly believe the market isn't going to correct or can't correct or won't correct violently and suddenly are people who haven't lived through that kind of event.
You should probably think it over more. What you do with your own money is also your own business.
Has virtually nothing to do with 2018 and everything to do with the next 2-6 weeks.