RiversAndMountains

Bitcoin Cash - Surviving Market Corrections

BITFINEX:BCHUSD   None
(Verbose post coming to Yours. org shortly (in my signature))

So, this is reality. Yes, crypto is a long-term big bull run that’s nowhere near global adoption levels. That is the truth. However, there’s a saying everyone has heard before:

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

Time frame is what matters. Over the course of 2018, I’m sure we’ll see even greater parabolic growth in crypto. The question is, if markets correct, can you survive until then?

I survived the September and October bear markets. I didn’t trade it particularly well and took some pretty big hits to my positions and wealth and even though in the end everything is fine and I have quite solid gains for the year, the losses generated then cost me gains I can’t recover during this bull run.

Here’s a reality check for you if you’re one of the “lol it’s crypto noob markets correct noob” camp.

Price just went from $4,100 --> $1,600 in 2 days 6 hours.

We just experienced a substantially more violent correction than October panic was. This is not unique to Bitcoin Cash , as all markets suffered the same fate with the exception of a few outlier shitcoins.

What it does tell you though is that the bull run is over until proven otherwise.

This is a key premise that you must accept.

The fastest way to lose money trading is to be trading in the wrong direction.

This Idea is a longer-term idea and does not comprise a shorter-term trading strategy. I will be posting shorter-term trades while also updating this one.

I am not saying that this pattern will happen, but amidst major market correction, it is something you absolutely must be prepared for.

People have smugly forgotten or don't know what "buying the dip" is about when the trend is no longer up.

Unfortunately for Bitcoin Cash , until something fundamental diverges, it will correct as well as BTFee drags all markets with it.

==
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Comment: More verbose thread live on Yours.org (in my signature)
Comment: Here we are after the daily candle closed. New update to Yours.org trading thread.


$2,800 is a key area that must be regained. Stay calm and stay patient. Things look recovering, but keep in mind they can be knocked down with great ease.
Comment: Update to Yours.org long-term trade thread.


We're now sitting at a key moment where we have to monitor price action and decide what to do with core position.

More bull run, or bull trap before monster dump?

Always so hard to say, especially with crypto.
Comment: New update to Yours.org trade thread. We're at a key level.


Right now I feel optimistic, but let's see how the day plays out.
Comment: New update to Yours.org trade post. Our friend Bitcoin Legacy has started a dump again.


It's a bit of a conundrum because of the price action on the BCHBTC pair at the moment. I'll let you make a decision how to handle it.

If you need to sell to pay expenses for the new year, now is the safe time. If you have strong hands, there may be better times.
Comment: This is pretty much the situation


It's very difficult, but try not to make decisions on shorter time frames.

$2,500 is next area to look for bounce if no immediate bounce here.
Comment: New update to Yours.org trade thread.


Long story short, I don't like that price action at all and although I feel like I'm going to get faked out in the next 12-48 hours quite often, for the purposes of a balanced strategy I've decided to sell a very small portion of my core position on this bounce.

That being said, keep in mind I bought most of my coins at $350 and am already effectively trading this position for free in 100% profits.

Your situation and entry point may be and likely is different.

Bitcoin Cash is the strongest coin on the market and will break Bitcoin Legacy, Litecoin, Ethereum, and Monero in 2018.

But, keep in mind bull runs cool and come to an end and it can and will take a few months for them to recover. In the absence of a Cashening or Dragonslaying scenario, Bitcoin Cash will follow the rest of the market down as whales steal everyone's money amidst panic and capitulation.
Comment: When I make the decision to sell a portion it is for a variety of reasons.

Frankly, if/when I can buy and pay for more things irl I will be considerably less inclined to sell. I am not particularly fiat heavy, for obvious reasons, so what do I do if market corrects to $1,400 over night and isn't getting back up for 2-3 months?

When i weigh all considerations both fundamental, technical, and personal, and make the decision to take profits, it's for an on-balance 51%+ settlement decision.

Because I've decided that's the way to handle it, and I can handle it at a reduced portion size, if it rocketships afterwards, well, I couldn't care less.

It will annoy me and I will feel angry for like 2 hours, but that is an okay cost for correct macro-level decision making, in my opinion.
Comment: Like I say in the Yours.org trading thead, you have to get the idea of buying the bottom and selling the top out of your head. It's not about that.

It's about eliminating risk, and especially eliminating risk of ruin.

They call it bull trap/complacency for a reason.
Comment: New update to Yours.org trading thread


BCHBTC trading pair is the most notable, still looking like it's due for a break out.

We'll have to wait and see what happens, but nothing is looking all that bullish on USD pairs at the moment.
Comment: Ratio pair was just dumped hard.


BTC is going up.

Super short term though. We'll have to see what happens.
Comment: New update to Yours.org trade thread. Posted about a half hour ago but forgot to post here.

Multitasking and Christmas.
Comment: New update to trading thread. Looks like on the short term we're coming to an end of a triangle. Possibility we break upwards. We'll have to sit tight and see what happens.
Comment: New update to Yours.org trading post


Many bearish divergences right now indeed.
Comment: New update to Yours.org trade post.


Very choppy. Staying at $2,700 is it bullish, or bearish? It's very difficult to say.

Long-term focus advised.
Comment: New update to Yours.org trade post.


Difficult spot to trade. BTC looks like it's mooning and is going to continue to moon.

$2,500 USD is key spot to hold.
Comment: New update to Yours.org trade thread. BTC in the middle of a false break out and pullback, BCH looking less bullish and ratio pair looking less bullish.

Check out the apparel shop in my signature below. We've got some really cute items and $2 from every purchase is going to the Bitcoin Cash Fund!
Comment: No analysis to this comment.

Bitmex moved their Bitcoin Cash in the last hour or two.

Total sum is about 13,000 BCH. Xapo was 560,000 by comparison.
Comment: Markets have been dumped. Alts are too expensive. Be careful. Don't be afraid, but be careful.


We now trade below the 0.618 and it's becoming resistance. That is more bearish. The more time goes on like this the less that the trend is up and the more that the trend is down.

I took profits on this trade 3-4 days ago at $2,700 and haven't traded it at all since. However, I also haven't withdrawn that money. If price exceeds $3,000, I will. Otherwise I'm going to wait and see what happens. It's kind of like a margin self short.

Trading this is very difficult and choppy on short term time frames. BTC is not bullish, either.
Comment: New update to Yours.org trade post. The reality is that things aren't bullish. Across the entire market, Ripple is bullish and some alts are bullish and that's really it.


Keep in mind when it comes to BTC that the hysteria around "in a parabola the corrections become smaller and shorter xD" argument is indeed the truth.

That extreme parabola is also the end of a cycle, however. After accumulation comes distribution.

Bitcoin Cash has the best fundamentals on the entire market, period, but right now everything is vulnerable to what BTFee does.
Comment: Big breakout on the BCHBTC ratio pair


That's why BCHUSD pumped and BTCUSD didn't follow.

I don't believe there's any fundamental news to back this short of the triangle breakout.

But they just printed 100MM Tether 3 minutes ago, so...
Comment: Looks like our earlier breakout was merely a short squeeze. Things do not look good for either Bitcoin Core or Bitcoin Cash right now.

Please don't be deceived by Ripple. It was same nonsense with IOTA a few weeks ago.

Ripple, ZCash, and Bitcoin Core are the three core cryptos of Digital Currency Group, which are a group that Axa/Bildeberg funds that is alongside Blockstream.

Always keep that in mind when facing these situations. It's all one big play.

Trade closed manually: This is a pretty bearish break.


Markets are no longer in an uptrend until proven otherwise.

Will have to do a new post as this one is old. Greed is how they get you to part with your money on the way up and fear is how they get you to part with your money on the way down.

Comments

Ok, this is a very valid and important perspective. Good to know and be prepared for all possible scenarios.
+3 Reply
It all feels wrong, as much as I wish it were going to move up from here. I do not think the final correction has happened. I think more ugly to come. Rivers strategy of money mgmt is sensible, if in the same scenario do the same, if not HODL.
+2 Reply
Really appreciate the work you do, however, if I am reading you correctly you are essentially indicating we are going into a bear market....seriously? That doesn't seem plausible to me at all. This entire thing right now is sentiment. Its going to be spikey, volatile, nuts really...and there will be horrendous corrections along the way, but jeez dude, if you are in for $350...what are you doing, ...hold man lol. Long run ahead. Anyway, thanks for the effort you put into this but it sounds like you are having a FUD night. I have them too.
+2 Reply
@xxxSALTHEART, Lol. What do you do with yourself when you wake up and the market drops to $1,900 and is still falling?

The only reason people ignorantly believe the market isn't going to correct or can't correct or won't correct violently and suddenly are people who haven't lived through that kind of event.

You should probably think it over more. What you do with your own money is also your own business.
+1 Reply
xxxSALTHEART RiversAndMountains
@RiversAndMountains, that’s entirely true...it just seems wildly premature to call bear. Sure, it’s possible...but as it’s going to explode onto the scene in 2018 it feels like an off-call. Just my 2 cents.
Reply
@xxxSALTHEART, Not sure if you've noticed it trading below the prior all-time high or not. None of the markets are bullish after the 60% retracements.

Has virtually nothing to do with 2018 and everything to do with the next 2-6 weeks.
Reply
xxxSALTHEART RiversAndMountains
@RiversAndMountains, think we are going to agree to disagree. Of course, this isn’t as much of an issue for hodlers. I think this pullback is healthy and won’t last very long. 18 will be explosive.
Reply
And the plot thickens... are there any markets these slimy bilderberg shits don't have their hands in somehow?!
+1 Reply
the retest of 13500 line seems different than prior BTC corrections, which were denoted by strong recurring capitulations without these strong intermediate undulations. Last night when Korea started to sell off there was an opportunity to break down strongly again. wonder if the PPT is in effect to draw a bottom at 13500.
+1 Reply
Merry Christmas Rivers...
+1 Reply