RiversAndMountains

Bitcoin Cash - Bitcoin Spirit, $450 Body; Think Tiny Bull

Long
BITFINEX:BCHUSD   None
Important Reading for Anyone Interested in Bitcoin Cash: https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/6rxw7k/informative_btc_vs_bch_articles/dl8v4lp/

A history of the Bitcoin community over the last few years and how this day came to be. It's absolutely worth your time to read all of it, all the links, and make up your mind as to where you want to stand at this stage of history.

I will admit that my estimate in entry points was completely wiped out by tremendous bullish momentum. As of writing, South Korean volume was $557MM today for Bitcoin Cash , whereas Bitcoin Core was $266MM on HitBTC and $152MM on Bitfinex. If you think about the implications of this as the November fork drama approaches...

The advice that I will give you to you on Bitcoin Cash is most simple: do not short Bitcoin Cash .

Why? It is a tiny bull that has yet to grow into its full form. Think those little sponge animals that when you throw them into water, poof. Shorting Bitcoin Cash is a fantastic way to get a call from your good friend margin.

The $500 mark is a big mark as it represents both a former point of resistance and the return above a historical downtrend line.

If it breaks through that, next target is $549 previous resistance, which I would assume would be smashed through, and then after that $730.

When to buy? Buy a dip. Make sure you have strong hands. It _will_ dip. It _will_ retrace. Just keep in mind when bull runs are very manic, they can go up in a straight line for a long time with very few retracements. This is the benefit of strong hands. Frankly, buying a breakout is fine too.

Remember, in people's minds, and in reality, this is something that is very very much Bitcoin and is still selling for $400-$500 while Core is selling for $6,000. Once this hits a more feverish pitch, the fib uptrace lines are going to be smashed through as the blue (green) candles are straight lines.

Segwit2X Futures have been moving on HitBTC at $1,000 today: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/segwit2x/#markets. Bitcoin Cash as it stands today is worth tremendously more than Segwit2x with what it has, where it came from, and the fact it has first-mover advantage against other forks.

Think about it.
Comment: Smashed right into $520 as like a blow off top and is currently in pullback. You have to decide on your entry point based on how bullishly it recovers.

But right now you can build a position at 460 and decide to add to it if it continues to drop and a fresh breakout above $500 is a good time to add as well.
Comment: Potentially the corrective pullback we've had at $520 may be finished. Price action is early so we have to watch carefully, but based on price action it looks like this count may work and we could see more gains.

$500 is major resistance though, but keep in mind _very_ bullish movements will have limited pullbacks.

Comment: Just getting home after family things today. If you take a look at the BCH chart on the shorter time frames and watch it all day, it was a pretty scary looking dump, yet very normal. Remember in the original chart where I said "take profits, expect dumps"? Well, there's a reason for that.

Analysis is only analysis and you have to always keep an eye on price action, decide your risk versus reward, how much you are willing to lose, how long you can tolerate being in drawdown, etc.

Also, remember when I said you may need strong hands? Think about all the people that held Bitcoin when it bubbled originally at $280 and then fell to $60. How hard was that? Yet those who did are now millionaires. It doesn't come easy.


As you can see from the chart it looks like we have a valid correction wave count with support being found at the critical support line.

Bull run may take a few days to a few weeks to continue upwards. It may also continue upwards tomorrow. It's very difficult to say.

In any event, as it stands now, you are trading with the trend by entering long positions at dipped prices and stronger hands will prevail.

Bitcoin is a mighty bull. Ask any cowboy how hard it is to stay on the back of one for 8 seconds.

Comments

RiversAndMountains, I've followed your posts on BCH with great interest. Your analysis has been spot on and you've made a fantastic call. Congratulations and thanks. I look forward to continuing to read your thoughts and perhaps to contribute some of my own. If you have a tip jar, I'd love to show my appreciation.
+4 Reply
@Unterhashing, Thanks a lot. I really appreciate it. Happy to do everything pro bono but appreciate the kindness for sure.

Bitcoin Core: 1P9fTP6XapkaCvGMuEChF9S5VxQKPXnxdj

Bitcoin Cash: 1CgLP3vUA14ZfKLqFFLVH6gdMDnLxmKWuF
Reply
Unterhashing RiversAndMountains
@RiversAndMountains, And I really appreciate your generosity in sharing your thoughts. Payment sent (Bitcoin Cash of course!).
+1 Reply
@Unterhashing, Much appreciated! Thanks so much for the kindness.
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imkeshav RiversAndMountains
@RiversAndMountains, I feel the same and sent you a little appreciation through BCH. Thanks for your time and knowledge
+1 Reply
@imkeshav, Thank you so much man. I really appreciate it!
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Oh maybe the rally is because BCH is in the Third position in Market Cap overtaking Ripple
+3 Reply
It looks to me that we can begin to say with greater confidence that there's been a trend change from bearish to bullish. We've 1) broken the downwards trend line, 2) made a higher high than the October 17 high, so I'm now watching closely then to see if the last part of the trend change - 3) making a higher low, completes the process. Holding support at $420 would complete the process.
+1 Reply
Update on bch please !
+1 Reply
yeshuyesh45 yeshuyesh45
@yeshuyesh45, how much it might fall ? Bought at 500 !
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