The situation with very big pump of Bitcoin Cash [BCH] is very similar to the movie situation The Big Short – when the asset value raises, and the value of the second asset that determines the price of the first falls. Let’s see asset values and costs form miner side. Hashrate of networks (based on last mined blocks, during writing these article) : BTC = 6 619 792 Th/s BCH = 284 668 Th/s So, hashrate ratio is 6 619 792 / 284 668 = 23.2 Price of BTC = 4065$ and BCH = 710$. Price ratio is 5.7 Looks like too crazy. But there is one more moment to consider: BCH is not accepted everywhere like BTC and has no such value and usability. Some pumpers make it a bubble or somebody rich ‘BTC’ and ‘BCH’ symbols in API. The second thoughts that BCH has unstable lagging network and block time is very unstable, now is 29 min, instead of 10, which must be. So, open short position with monitoring and moving down stops after price goes lower than 650. These rally should be end earlier than end of next week or we get new paradigm with BTC/BCH situation.
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I think that big dump can be made under the pretense of 51% attack or DDOS of main BCH pool or just loosing hashrate power, when the blocktime come to 1h or more... UTC Time 14:50 Hashrate of BCH is 3.962844287747465e+017 Hashrate of BTC is 7.344198437744869e+018 Ratio is ~18.5 (depends on pool luck too)
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UTC Time: 10:00 AM Btc block count: 481496 Btc avg. block time: 11min 23 sec = 11.39min Bch block count: 480525 Bch avg. block time: 2min 23sec= 2.39min Next difficulty retarget will be at block number: 481824(the same as Segwit activation). BTC network will reach Segwit activation in approx: (481824-481496)*11.39min= 3736min BCH network will reach these block target in (481824-480525)*2.39= 3104 min Difference is approx. 10 hours [it is also possible that BCH become faster and BTC slower because of miners movement], but in these moment willhappen Bch difficulty retargeting which makes block time 10 min and it will be not so proffitable because of price. When the Segwit will be activated BTC network will also retarget and PROBABLY will be much more profitable, after it BCH network will go down... So, wait for extreme volatility and news speculations...
And also keep in mind the korean pump on bithumb as there was 1.2 billion volume twoo days ago and 700 yesterday and even less today. Directly from the south Korea won to bitcoin cash
RenikvanderBorch
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@RenikvanderBorch, and with 1.2 billion i mean dollars compared to the won
@RenikvanderBorch, yeah, i saw it, but any volume can be also considered as buying from (my)yourself and seeling to (my)yourself and market feedback reaction...
ExcitingTechnology
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You might be on to something with the hash ratio. I don't think comparing BCH to BTC via Fiat makes a lot of sense. I've noticed that ratios and correlations make more sense when you price everything based on the price of Bitcoin (the coin most traders settle to).
ExcitingTechnology
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@ExcitingTechnology, To be more specific. I'm suggesting charting based on BTC/BCH vice BCH/USD or EUR
KostiaMinin
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@ExcitingTechnology, thank you, sir.
Actually my analysis, based on hashrate ratio calculations, may be described by a small metaphor:
There are two supercars. One has 1000 Horsepowers, nice look, and can drive in a lot of types asphalts and concrete, girls are also love that supercar, it costs 400'000$. The second has only 50 horsepowers, pretty good look, some restrictions with driving conditions, but seller wants 90'000 $. Which one will be better gift to yourself, bought by yourself.