BCHUSDT Poloniex - Pasted again in comments for easier viewing: for POLONIEX:BCHUSDT by WyckoffMode

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I believe what is occurring now just above the 1.0 FIB is what is called a Back Up / Last Point of Supply. Meaning, a TEST of Supply AFTER a SIGN OF STRENGTH. What NORMALLY occurs thereafter is a serious upside move to or near the 1.618 FIB. However, the way ALT/USD pairs have been blowing past the 1.618 FIB lately has me wondering if BCH "might" go higher than the 1.618 FIB and possibly to the 0.5 FIB I placed between the 1.618 and 2.618 Extension.

WHY the .5 FIB between the 1.618 and 2.618 Extension? I'll give ETHUSDT Poloniex as an example:

This is only my thoughts on BCHUSDT. These thoughts are my own and no-one else. I'm not responsible for any trades made based off my Technical Analysis.

David

Comment:

This is an older chart of ETHUSD in PHASE D before LIFT OFF:

I believe BCHUSDT may be in similar Phase D currently before its liftoff.

What's so significant about Phase D and Phase E thereafter?

Phase D: If we are correct in our analysis, what should follow is the consistent dominance of demand over supply. This is evidenced by a pattern of advances (SOSs) on widening price spreads and increasing volume, and reactions (LPSs) on smaller spreads and diminished volumes. During Phase D, the price will move at least to the top of the TR. LPSs in this phase are generally excellent places to initiate or add to profitable long positions.

Phase E: In phase E, the stock leaves the TR, demand is in full control, and the markup is obvious to everyone. Setbacks, such as shakeouts and more typical reactions, are usually short-lived. New, higher-level TRs comprising both profit-taking and acquisition of additional shares (“re-accumulation”) by large operators can occur at any point in phase E. These TRs are sometimes called “stepping stones” on the way to even higher price targets.

Comment:

TR = Trading Range

Comment:

Well, that Back Up / Last Point of Supply (BU/LPSY) did not last very long at all before shooting up.

Remember, My 1.618 FIB is "technically" the number of where BCHUSDT is heading to a minimum . However, it's possible for it to go to my $6,057.48 or even higher. It depends on a lot of geopolitics in the crypto space. It depends on how people feel about the current LONG block times in BTC, high fees in BTC, etc...

Here are a couple of excellent videos to watch in regards to BTC and BCH debate:

"As Bitcoin Breaks All-Time Highs Near $20,000 Its Future Has Never Been So Uncertain" -

"Bitcoin Cash May Become the REAL "Bitcoin!" (Bix Weir)" -

"Roger Ver and Richard Heart Bitcoin debate" -

Comment:

The 2h and 4h TF's suggest we still have quite a bit of downward pressure to overcome before we see the rise of any substantial pressure to the upside.

The 60m TF "might" suggest we are about to turn upside. However, the 2h and 4h seem to put a damper on such a move yet.

This is my opinion.

Comment:

0.618 FIB RT placement:

Comment:

I decided to use my 2 Guns Down Rule for this 0.618 FIB Retrace (RT). Here's the conclusion with THAT rule:

Comment:

Important thing to keep in mind is the "geopolitical" spectrum of Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Core:

Roger Ver and others are apparently supporting BCH and they feel Bitcoin Core has aborted Satoshi's original plan for bitcoin. I said that to say this:

It's possible Roger Ver and others in league with him are dumping the multitude of Bitcoins they own at or near the top until current day and carrying it over into Bitcoin cash to accumulate more Bitcoin Cash at lower prices. It's possible...

Which means, we may have to throw the technicals out the window this trip with Bitcoin Cash cause it may NOT come down to my 0.618 FIB RT because of the geopolitical implications involved in the space.

Comment:

A comment for those new to the space:

When we have a dump after a Wyckoff Spring it's implemented by stair stepping down. WHY? One reason is so they can get a premium on their coins while taking it down.

When we come to create a step in the stairs on the way down, the purpose of the step is to create a PAUSE in the trading by pumping it up just a bit to make new, smaller retail traders believe the dump is over and it's safe to get in. The composite groups want people to think this so the buy orders can fill up to their liking before they dump into those buy orders once again and take it even further down to their objective price.

So, the purpose of the pause each time on the way down is to encourage people to get back in to get the BUY order books to their liking in order to dump into them again for premium profits.

Comment:

Here's a view of what I drew on the chart ALONG WITH the indicators at the bottom. NOTE the blue LSMA and the blue arrow I drew coming down lining up with the red arrow I have coming down in the chart to the $2,209 price point.

Comment:

It already made it to $2,250.12 on Polo. I'm still expecting more downside pressure to push it down close to my 0.618 FIB. However, that's on a hunch. I haven't looked at the indicators again to see. More than likely it will though.

Comment:

I did not have enough in history on this pair to KNOW for sure where to place my 1.0% FIB placement. After looking at this more, I probably should have placed it at preliminary support which would have placed it at $2,026:

Comment:

Simply having a record in this publication of it coming down to the black trend line very close to the black 0.618 FIB RT drawn out to the right of the red one. Sorry I was off on this one a little bit, Followers.

Comment:

I'm quite certain (90%) we found bottom at the black FIB 0.618 RT and we will soon begin a Mark Up. However, do not be surprised if we test bottom once more; creating a "W" formation before the Mark Up. Time will tell.

Also, the Blue LSMA in the 180m TF in Phoenix 1.118 (top indicator) is getting ever closer to 20% line but it's very probably it may go down to 0.0% before we have obvious upside pressure. The ARI and Stoch RSI also act like they may want to come up.

The blue LSMA in the 240m TF for top indicator still has a ways to travel down to 20%. It's currently located at the red dashed line; which is the 50% marker. This would leave me to believe even more we may see a "W" formation in the lower 180m TF before confirming reversal to the upside.

The Blue LSMA in the 360m is not of as much importance as the red and green lines are because of current location of the blue LSMA in the lower TF's. I'll keep you updated on the 360m TF later as things play out.

Comment:

BCHUSDT is coming very close to going back up. Look at the green line and gray ghost in the 15m and 30m below 20%: