JamesEubank
Long

Buy and hold BHP Billiton (Longer-term)

NYSE:BHP   BHP BILLITON LTD
20 0 1
From 1982 to 1997 the market, I believe, was valuing BHP             fairly giving a good base-line for long-term growth forecast and intrinsic value given that the fundamental story does not change. Well the fundamental story did change... crazy unsustainable rises in the price of iron ore (a classic bubble & subsequent bust). From a market cap stand point BHP             is the biggest mining company in the world. Thanks to globalisation they are now internationally diversified as well. The latest mining hot spot next to Australia for iron ore is South America (and in the near future Africa) & surprise surpise BHP             had to foresight to get involved there. During the commodity price boom huge profits were made and BHP             did the smart thing and bought out its biggest competitor in South America, Samarco. Supply driven boom bust cycles are excellent opportunities for large multinationals to kill smaller competitors and buy up valuable competitors at a bargain. This is likely what happened in South America. To top it off, BHP             is now joint venture partners with Vale, which is the BIGGEST mining company in South America. They are now effectively a monopoly. The only risk would be political & government instability that will effect operations in South America (Unlikely). Iron ore is at RECORD LOWS due to over supply but demand stays strong as steel is needed for automobiles and construction both expected to rise in the future especially automobiles as China's middle class which is ENORMOUS along with other developing nations start demanding personal automobiles. They have also diversified into copper             (cheap a.t.m.), coal (on its way out due to global warming) & Potash (used in fertilisers ,excellent). Now is a chance to buy BHP             at its FAIR VALUE but it is NOT AT A DISCOUNT so be careful as there could be further down side so adjust your position size carefully and hold until copper             & iron prices recover resulting in higher revenue forecasts for BHP             resulting in higher share price. Sell when prices are unreasonably high. (CRITIQUING WOULD BE HELPFUL)
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