In the analysis of Fibonacci landscape, the most important level to monitor actually is the 50% line and yet it is the most overlooked one. Just like any sport game, the middle of the playing field normally is the first line of defense and an indication that which side is controlling the game. If it is trading above the middle line we could technically view it as bullish and below as bearish .
Can the middle line predict anything? It depends on your definition of what is prediction. When we see Polar Bear from North Pole attacking the middle line with huge volume it is most likely that the middle line will be penetrated and we can predict that the Polar Bear is in control of the game. At what level the South Africa Bulldog will do the counter attack? We don't know. But the price will tell us when it is in control of the playing field (above middle line). If an expert geologist detected a big 6.0 strong thermal shock, she will predict that it will be followed by many more smaller scaled after shock and the after shock will weaken a high rise building if the foundation is weak or it is not designed as an earthquake resistance structure. Rather then using Fibonacci landscape to fortune telling, it will be more productive if it is used as a seismometer.
For educational purpose, we take Bintai as an example, instead of keeping our reference point fixed, we use a 20 day price channel as our playing field markers in order to capture the latest data into picture and slowly phase out old data. 20D high 1.47, 20D low 0.67 so the 20D middle line is 1.07 We don't know the North Polar Bear can penetrate the middle line 1.07 or not but the possibility is high that after shock event will further increase the downward momentum and slap the South African Bulldog. Just keep in mind that this 20D price channel cannot predict anything and it is just a marking tool to see which side is in control of the game and the job of a trader is to follow the strong side or the right side of the trend.
Can the middle line predict anything? It depends on your definition of what is prediction. When we see Polar Bear from North Pole attacking the middle line with huge volume it is most likely that the middle line will be penetrated and we can predict that the Polar Bear is in control of the game. At what level the South Africa Bulldog will do the counter attack? We don't know. But the price will tell us when it is in control of the playing field (above middle line). If an expert geologist detected a big 6.0 strong thermal shock, she will predict that it will be followed by many more smaller scaled after shock and the after shock will weaken a high rise building if the foundation is weak or it is not designed as an earthquake resistance structure. Rather then using Fibonacci landscape to fortune telling, it will be more productive if it is used as a seismometer.
For educational purpose, we take Bintai as an example, instead of keeping our reference point fixed, we use a 20 day price channel as our playing field markers in order to capture the latest data into picture and slowly phase out old data. 20D high 1.47, 20D low 0.67 so the 20D middle line is 1.07 We don't know the North Polar Bear can penetrate the middle line 1.07 or not but the possibility is high that after shock event will further increase the downward momentum and slap the South African Bulldog. Just keep in mind that this 20D price channel cannot predict anything and it is just a marking tool to see which side is in control of the game and the job of a trader is to follow the strong side or the right side of the trend.
Comment:
As a trader we need to quantify our trading decision as we don't have the supernatural powers to see at what Fibonacci level the price will make a turn. For educational purpose, we take Bintai as an example. We have calculated that the middle line is RM1.07 and the 20D high is RM1.47 so the next question is how do we quantify this playing field? We can make a simple quantitative statement such as IF the price is pushed below RM1.07 the playing field is control by polar bear and the downward momentum is stronger or else IF the price is pushed above RM1.27 (the middle line between 1.47 - 1.07 or we can call it quarterly line for educational purpose) with good volume I will take an exploratory bet to see how strong is the breakout. In this way, we don't trade with superstition but with highly quantifiable trading strategy.
Comment:
For educational purpose, our educational games plan will be similar to this. We take Bintai as an example to demonstrate our setup. IF Bintan break above the upper quarter line RM1.27 we will ENTER expolatory position. IF it breakdown the middle line RM1.07 we will EXIT our expolatory position. With this quantified statement, you can then work out your position size to see how much risk you are willing to take if the price breakdown the middle line. Trading is like a warfare. You don't goto the frontline based on supernatural Fibonacci prediction level. You need a war plan based on hard quantitative data.
Comment:
If you think the EXIT point RM1.07 is too far away, you can adjust it upward to RM1.17 which is the middle point between RM1.27 and RM1.07 or the Fibonacci 50% level between the quarter line and middle line. As a trader, we cannot fortune telling which way the market will move as most of the chart pattern analysis like candlest or ROC technical indicators are nothing more than a tools to measure the underlying momentum and momentum needs volume flow to generate further momentum. If we read careful the volume flow we can visually tell that the big volume still hiding and we don't know which way this big volume flow will push but possibility is high that it will bias more on downsides so be guided by the upper quarter line 1.27 and the middle line 1.07 and enjoy the game and not to form any unsubstantiated opinion. Vaccine business is a highly regulated medical industry and it is very capital intensive and requires super strong financial muscle to stay relevant.
Comment:
Bintai Kinden's two biggest shareholders sell shares before vaccine earnings kick in
www.theedgemarkets.c...dispose-shares-group
www.theedgemarkets.c...dispose-shares-group