1/28/26 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
BIRK
birk go furrrr?
- from writing about
ONON and 
DECK and keeping BIRK on the watchlist... i can tell you these are the only shoes and slippers that i enjoy wearing. that's saying something.
- visibility toward > double digit top line and > 30% EBITDA margins puts it as a rule of 40 type. which is usually reserved for other sectors
- vertically integrated model, great brand, unique value prop. can it be copied? yuh, it all can, but you don't see discounts on birks like you do other brands which tells you something
- so when i look at that fcf yield >6% growing DD... could in the consumer get rekt environment become 7-8%? sure ofc. that's lower and this thing is leveraged too (more debt > cash) so net debt means equity could get hurt more. but i think anything in the 20s is pretty obvious buy and it's already a long-term hold here as is.
- so i'm going small, trialing a lot of things in this market. afraid to go full risk on ahead of a hard landing (hello gold...)
- so let's see, but we're now in this stock being tested in my PnL in small single digit amount (like sub 2% for context) and i'd like to grow it.
V
BIRKbirk go furrrr?
- from writing about
ONON and DECK and keeping BIRK on the watchlist... i can tell you these are the only shoes and slippers that i enjoy wearing. that's saying something.- visibility toward > double digit top line and > 30% EBITDA margins puts it as a rule of 40 type. which is usually reserved for other sectors
- vertically integrated model, great brand, unique value prop. can it be copied? yuh, it all can, but you don't see discounts on birks like you do other brands which tells you something
- so when i look at that fcf yield >6% growing DD... could in the consumer get rekt environment become 7-8%? sure ofc. that's lower and this thing is leveraged too (more debt > cash) so net debt means equity could get hurt more. but i think anything in the 20s is pretty obvious buy and it's already a long-term hold here as is.
- so i'm going small, trialing a lot of things in this market. afraid to go full risk on ahead of a hard landing (hello gold...)
- so let's see, but we're now in this stock being tested in my PnL in small single digit amount (like sub 2% for context) and i'd like to grow it.
V
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.