What price and when will the next ATH be? That is the question in every BTC holder/ trader/ investor right?
Well I have looked into the 'what price' parameter on numerous studies such as this recent one below:
Today I am gonna be looking at the 'when' factor. But in contrast to a few more conservative analyses I have done in the past such as the one below, I will be pursuing on this one a different approach:
I have classified Bitcoin's Cycle's by measuring the time from the previous to the next Bottom and then looking at when the next ATH (All Time High)/ Market High is by taking a Fibonacci extension.
* On the 1st Cycle (blue), we see that the Bottom to Bottom measurement (actually had to use the first date given) of July 2010 to Nov 2011 gives a 2.5 Fib extension on the next Market High (December 2013).
* On the 2nd Cycle (orange), the Bottom to Bottom measurement of Nov 2011 to Jan 2015 gives a few week shy of 2.0 Fib on the next Market High (December 2017).
* The 3rd Cycle (green) has a Bottom to Bottom measurement of Jan 2015 to Dec 2018. If it follows the previous (orange) Cycle and tops shy of the 2.0 Fib extension, then the next Market High is projected to be around November 2022. If it follows the first (blue) Cycle and tops on the 2.5 Fib, expect a Market High around October 2024.
Which one do you think it will be? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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@TradingShot, you had published a very famous chart called the Bitcoin Golden bull ratio chart that clearly indicates a bull cycle top on Sept 28, 2021.tgat chart seems still valid, don't you think?
SebastianofMoon
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Excellent analysis as always Tradingshot.
I am still unsure if the cycles are actually slowing down, in that case yes, late 2022 for ATH is very realistic, even early 2023.
But it could also be that btc just doesn't care, and does a regular 4 year cycle, thus giving us ATH in late 2021. It will soon be decided,
but either way, it will be a nice ride :)
TradingShot
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@FlaviusTodorius67, Thanks Flavius! I was gonna insert the standard 4 year cycle into the equation but I thought since it doesn't gel with the lengthening cycles theory, I shouldn't. You might be right and if you ask me I hope so! The sooner the ATH the better for me!
SebastianofMoon
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@TradingShot, Hehe yes, I also wouldn't mind a sooner ATH ;) 2-3 more years seems like an eternity in bitcoin land, lol !
TradingShot
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@FlaviusTodorius67, So true! We've waited long enough!
DukeDinhd6
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Just 2 more big 6 months candle that's all
TradingShot
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@DukeDinhd6, 300k in early 2022? I can't say that I 'm looking forward to it!
shimmeringpath
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It will be late 2023 or early 2024 for next ATH . I agree with the theory we are in a lengthening Bitcoin cycle . I am absolutely not expecting 100k in 2021 , and as for a return to 20k I think it will happen in late next year of 2021 or possibly early 2022 but definitely not in 2020 .
Earlier is fine too!