This is an interesting way to look at Bitcoin's price. Before diving into the analysis, each green arrow represents when Bitcoin shorts have peaked. Each red arrow chart where Bitcoin shorts have hit the lower trendline. In terms of a pattern analysis, Bitcoin shorts appear to currently be in an ascending triangle. If that is the case, the presumption would be that shorts will head to the upper range and eventually see a break out.
Here is where things get interesting. A breakout of the ascending triangle gives us a measured move to just under 80,000 shorts. When I put that move in it creates an very large rising wedge. You can see where I've put theoretical arrows on the chart with an expected peak occurring in December 2019 (that would be the Bitcoin bottom). Hope this helps and please give a like if you find it interesting.
you may find 40k shorts is the limit on Bitfinex: maybe due to funding rates or other factors bringing a ceiling to margin shorts
DatCryptoBoi
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Yes, they love to short the bottom
Deabers
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It looks like you have drawn the shorts as an ascending triangle. But an ascending triangle has to follow a previous HH. so its more of a symmetrical triangle. In which case have some faith for April 2019. puts BTC in the 1200-1800 range everyone is talking about instead of this dreadfully low 800 range or 400 by your other charts.
Not saying it won't do this! and I think this is a really good chart comparison. but I just wanted to share to look out for that time as well for the first possible reversal.
Smoak
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@Deabers, Really good point. At first, I had it drawn from the August 18th low which might be the better placement. What intrigued me is that drawing it from the low gives it a measured move into the top of that potential wedge.
Deabers
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@Smoak, yeah I think one other thing I notice with crypto trends is that while 3 points forms a nice trendline. if it touches it more than 4. it becomes very weak. Usually on 5th or 6th touch it falls through.
voidarkterror
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By this logic, when/if BTC breaks this rising wedge in Feb/2020, moon will be real