Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's get right to it! In front of you, I have the comparison charts of the current market situation (on top) to the 2015 bottoming pattern (on bottom.) Yesterday, price abruptly fell to the 50 EMA (in orange.) After yesterday's analysis, I compared that retracement to the 50 EMA, to the 2015 bottoming fractal that I have been following. What I found was very interesting.
As you can see, on the 2015 chart (on the bottom,) toward the end of the triangle (in black) and after the descending head and shoulders patter (in red) price had two pumps to the upside, it hit the top of the downtrend channel, and then fell sharply to the 50 EMA, exactly as it just did yesterday. Now that I have noticed that, perhaps we wont see the rally to the top of the channel (in blue) that I have been expecting. Perhaps we will just get those two pumps, and price will start to fall below the 50 EMA, continuing to mirror exactly what happened at the bottom in 2015, aside from the rally to the top of the channel. So, even if price breaks down below the 50 EMA, it will still be following the 2015 bottoming fractal, and it will still be bullish price movement. Admittedly, I would be more comfortable if we saw a pullback to the 50 after a rally to the top of the channel, but the fractal doesn't have to be exact. It just needs to maintain the general movement patterns, and by pulling back to the 50 EMA after two pumps, it's doing exactly that.
In the coming days, we will see if price holds or loses the 50 EMA. Either way, I see it as a bullish outcome, and I stand by my call that the market has bottomed, based on this incredibly accurate fractal that I have discovered.
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I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
I am unfollowing all the traders I know on twitter who panicked and reversed their positions. It seems rash, illogical, and like bad trading. Because everyone was calling for the bears I half expected you would, too - but you actually said with humility you might have to swallow your pride about your bull predictions, but why don't we just wait and see? Very nice - some of the only level-headed crypto thinking I've seen all week
iBeardy
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So nobody is mentioning here the perfect bearflag?
lol..
dptene
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@RedBeard_0x, That's a bear flag on h1, this chart is on the daily timeframe. In my experience, flags on h1 are not very reliable, the flag formation works best on h4 and daily imo. I wouldn't read too much into a h1 flag.
dptene
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@RedBeard_0x, Nvm my previous comment, good point. The flag is actually present on H4 and D1 too.
tommix
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I see like 0 similarities.
jollygreen
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I don't see it either. After that 50% November drop from 6k, BTC should have bounced to around 5.9K if it was matching the 2015 fractal. Those triangles aren't congruent. Sorry buddy.
tommix
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CANT SEE A THING IN THIS MESS.
cryptohop
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and if we follow that fractal we have more down.
MagicPoopCannon
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@cryptohop, yes, but it never drops below the low of 2015. That's why I've called it the "2015 Bottoming Fractal." This isn't meant to be used for a day trade. This is an indication that the bear market has ended (for educational purposes.)
cryptohop
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@MagicPoopCannon, Im not doubting your analysis. I think we've bottomed as well. Im just looking for more discount buy zones.