Hi and thanks for visiting, glad you're taking the time to read my analysis.
If you are familiar with my previous analysis, you know I pointed out that there are a lot of similarities between the 2013 and 2021 bull runs. If you're not familiar with it, I suggest you go and have a look at it here:
Now I found even more similarities : The time it took for the 2013 mid-cycle high to be broken was pretty long, 30 weeks (7 months) to be precise. Now look at the 2021 cycle, the 30th candle after the mid-cycle high is the one that broke above it.
In 2013, after breaking above that mid-cycle high, it took only 3 weeks to reach the 2013 ATH, reaching the 2.272 fib extension.
Does that mean that we will see the same now in 2021? To be honest, I doubt that we'll move up that fast, the 2.272 fib extension is around the 200k USD mark, and I don't think we'll reach that by the end of November.
So, keeping that in mind, I think it's more realistic to see a price around 100k by the end of the year, and potentially reaching that 200k level in Q2 of 2022.
For what it's worth, I'm not a financial advisor and this analysis/projection is just my view of what I think is possible. If you want to put money on the line, better do your own research.
So, what do you think? Where do you think bitcoin will take us by the end of the year and what do you think is going to be the cycle top? I'm looking forward to your comments and as always, if you liked this idea, a 👍🏽 would be appreciated.
for it to get to 200k that means more than three trillion dollars needs to flow into btc by december. then start slaughtering your piggy banks.
Nico.Muselle
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@christian_pilz, that is a common misconception. Depending on the liquidity of the market, we'll need between 20-30% of that to reach those levels. When liquidity is low, which is the case currently, price can jump up much faster.
christian_pilz
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@Nico.Muselle, but then you have to pack a good parachute at least when everyone starts to sell their coins to make a profit.
Nico.Muselle
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@christian_pilz, true, that's why I said that I don't expect us to reach those levels by the end of November, rather somewhere in Q2 of 2022. There are 2 things in play here ... you have those people that were really early, and that might take some profits at let's say 100k ... Then you have institutions for whom the asset is becoming more interesting as price goes up ... Interesting times ahead if you ask me :)
christian_pilz
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@Nico.Muselle, That's exactly why I think 2013 won't be repeated like this. We now have professional institutions and funds in the game and we have certain regulations that counteract the demand. The general volume of the last wave cycle since mid-july is relatively low. I also think that there is less institutional interest in retail prices. But Bitcoin is just Bitcoin.
suvny21
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great analysis for community, much appreciate
Nico.Muselle
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@santana2331, you're welcome. It's my pleasure and I hope you find it useful.
I really like analyzes of cycles in BTC because I'm looking for currencies in which there is deflation, especially for trading, keep us informed, great work
then start slaughtering your piggy banks.