Just an old idea, no need to hide it now ;)
Idea is that the price of Bitcoin and other mined tokens follows the supply trend.
As you can see the total number is always increasing, but in Bitcoin's case the rate halves every 4 years leading to an overall diminishing trend which should saturate at maximum supply (21 million tokens).
This is one of the reasons that I think BTC will never do the 100k dream, although it's still very speculative imo.
The main reason is the strong correlation between market price and network energy consumption (this is a fact).
Here the supply is estimated from market cap data (supply = mcap / price), so that's why there are intra-month fluctuations.
I tried to think of an explanation for why the price would be affected by the rate of production like this and I could only think that is due to miner trading activity: let's say a certain return is required per Bitcoin in a given bull/bear cycle. Because oversupply (bear / sell off phase) depresses the price, one must pump higher during periods of higher production (gains at 2011 peak > gains at 2013 peak > gains at 2017 peak) to ensure your roi per coin??? Maybe, idk tbh, but I imagine it's due to some shady shit...
Idea is that the price of Bitcoin and other mined tokens follows the supply trend.
As you can see the total number is always increasing, but in Bitcoin's case the rate halves every 4 years leading to an overall diminishing trend which should saturate at maximum supply (21 million tokens).
This is one of the reasons that I think BTC will never do the 100k dream, although it's still very speculative imo.
The main reason is the strong correlation between market price and network energy consumption (this is a fact).
Here the supply is estimated from market cap data (supply = mcap / price), so that's why there are intra-month fluctuations.
I tried to think of an explanation for why the price would be affected by the rate of production like this and I could only think that is due to miner trading activity: let's say a certain return is required per Bitcoin in a given bull/bear cycle. Because oversupply (bear / sell off phase) depresses the price, one must pump higher during periods of higher production (gains at 2011 peak > gains at 2013 peak > gains at 2017 peak) to ensure your roi per coin??? Maybe, idk tbh, but I imagine it's due to some shady shit...
Comment:
click for live chart
Comment:
Bitcoin price modelling using Facebook AI for forecasting from seasonally-dependent data.
medium.com/@sunnyday...prophet-b66efd0169a0
medium.com/@sunnyday...prophet-b66efd0169a0
Comment:
Updated an old chart. Click for live.
