The follow up chart on yesterdays chart, zoomed out a bit, to understand the important supports at play here, and why the MA200 is not the support to look at, as the strongest possible support.
We see that the probable future MA200, is quite far above the squareroot-trend. A trend, which has stood since 2010, and has been tested again and again. There is no stronger support in BTC than this one.
We see that the MA200 is too far above this support. This means that the MA200 moving average is too fast, BTC has gotten a bit slower.
The MA300 on the other hand, will be in a few weeks to months EXACTLY at the Sqrt support! Those two supports will actually be exactly at the same price in the next months !!! At around 2400-2500 USD. This is extremely important! I don't think that BTC will be able to penetrate this support, and close below. Even if it would drop to say 1900-2200 USD, which would be below, the weekly candle would bounce back dramatically and close at least at MA300 and Sqrt support, so around 2400-2500 USD.
I think this will form the new accumulation floor in the period before the next halving, say until mid 2020 at the latest. In anticipation of the halving, we'll probably slowly start rising before that, in early 2020 is my estimate.
I am long until the weekly in BTC is on overbought, so till the mid 4000s. The weekly RSI also has to come up before the next drop, it was very oversold.>
When BTC hits the logarithmic resistance, I will go short.
The coming months will represent a huge opportunity, so good luck to everyone!
Comment
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I'd like to update more, but this market is so unvolatile at the moment, that every other market seems more action-packed. It's like a 2-3% move, and then nothing for days. Very low volume, typical for bearmarkets. But a stronger move will have to come at some point during the next weeks.
"I am long until the weekly in BTC is on overbought, so till the mid 4000s.
The weekly RSI also has to come up before the next drop, it was very oversold."
The daily RSI should be a good indicator as well, just as previous time :)
SebastianofMoon
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@malk, Thanks for the share, indeed, the daily RSI is also a very good indicator in this situation. So, there are really a number of indicators on different timeframes pointing towards your and my scenario.
mowgliasia
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Hello, thank you for sharing this chart.
DO you have a long term bitcoin projection since 2011 or so using your Sqrt support showing how price reacted to it?
Thank you!
SebastianofMoon
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@mowgliasia, Hi :) You're welcome, hope it helps! Yes, here is a longterm chart since the start in 2010:
mowgliasia
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@FlaviusTodorius67, Thank you sir! I agree with the four year growth cycles stimulated by the halvings. I really appreciate your idea and updates, just started following you!
SebastianofMoon
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@mowgliasia, Thanks for following me :) and you're welcome. I hope that I'm right, we'll only know in a few years if these longterm charts are valid, but there is a high likelihood they are. I hope you learn a lot about bitcoin and do achieve your personal goals with btc. I'll certainly continue posting ideas. Have a nice day!
Murmuration
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how do you calculate SQRT support?
SebastianofMoon
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@MustStopMurad, Quite primitively in tradingview: I calculate it by hand, and then connect the points with a curved line.
Murmuration
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@FlaviusTodorius67, so y=sqrt(price)?
SebastianofMoon
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@MustStopMurad, Don't forget that this is a logarithmic chart, so the base function is an exponential, so therefore: y= a*(e^x)^b; where x is the number of days from the starting point in 2010 (I set the price to zero back then, it was almost zero when it started, the offset on the y-axis is negligible), and y is the value at any given moment in USD. a and b are numerical parameters, which have weird values, based on the fitting of the curve (obtainable for example with Matlab)
The weekly RSI also has to come up before the next drop, it was very oversold."
The daily RSI should be a good indicator as well, just as previous time :)