History will often repeat itself. Not always in the exact same way but human psychology doesnt change.
Here Ive studied the 2014 bear market and added some structure to it. About 252 days after the first red weekly candle, volume starts picking up. A lot of times if you look at any kind of impulse move, even on the lower timeframes, you will see an impulse move in a certain direction, a reactionary move where volume is subsiding and then one or two moves in either direction, where volume picks up SLIGHTLY.
Once volume really starts going down to a snail pace, theres a big volume move either up or down. This is what Ive tried to categorize here. Obviously this is speculation but still interesting to compare the two bear market charts and try and find fractals.
Will this bear market be similar to the last one? Only time will tell. Till then, GL trading.
-Alex
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I put up another idea on WHY this weekly candle close is VERY IMPORTANT. Check it out.
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I have a story for you about the Great Warrior BITCOIN. Read about what Path he chooses.
Great chart.Thank you.
If there are similarities, can we expect that next step is to retest 5800$ (red box) before continuing down to gray box?
alexcph
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@Dagbit81, Could happen. Dont know how far up it will go. Remember this is pure speculation. But will be interesting if it actually pans out like that.
DongkyDevil
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Very good
alexcph
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@DongkyDevil, Check out my latest idea for updates on BTC price action. In a trade as well.
SnarkLife
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Hey Alex, interesting analysis and thank you for sharing the similarities. I have a question for you - how do you define the term "fractal"?
alexcph
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@SnarkLife, well the definition of fractals is when even the miniscule movements or patterns will be seen in the bigger one. Try googling fractal on google images and you will see what I mean. This also translates to price. Price movements on smaller timeframes usualle have the same behavior on higher timeframes. This isnt ALWAYS true depending on timeframe however. E.g. Look at high timeframe stocks. But in trading the word fractals is also used in the sense that price patterns repeat themselves, and therefore we can sometimes predict whats going to happen with a certain probability. Hope that answers your question!