hey guys welcome to a fresh update of Bitcoin. the pattern shown above am following this from almost a year and now looks like recent moves has confirmed this formation. the above analysis is completely based on elliot wave theory, and you'll be amazed that how precisely Bitcoin is following the elliot wave cycle from almost 10 years and didn't get any attention by the community. before moving forward have a look at this idea i've published on 17th may 19, and precisely predicted the rally towards 13500 and huge drop from there, and at that time bitcoin was floating around 7800 level
clearly prices followed the exact same pattern and we see a huge dump from 14000s level, congratulations if you've made some solid gains by following this chart:) clearly higher degree charts put more light on price directions.
starting with the beginning of this whole cycle when Bitcoin was just born and prices skyrocketed from 0$ to 32$ in just 11 months, those who joined the very first wave are miraculously so lucky or even so unlucky if they sell even on top, after that the first major sell off or the wave 2 was so deep and impactful as you can visualize in below chart.
from wave 2 prices start to follow the elliot wave principles, as wave 2 was a 38.2% retracement wave, the next wave 3 has got the highest probabilities for extension.
extended wave 3 Finishes exactly 100% of wave 1, which makes both waves of equal length and with the rule of alteration we get a flat corrective wave 4, where prices dont fall sharp and deeply and takes usually longer time to end, precisely followed all the steps by bitcoin.
finally wave 5 ends between 61.8% and 78.6% of wave 3, coz one of the key rules of ellot waves are that wave 3 could never be the shortest ones, so in case of equal length of wave 1 & 3 wave 5 has to be the shortest wave and thats exactly what happened. at the level of 20000$ bitcoin finally completes the 5 wave formation and move towards the major ABC correction which has to be bigger than the prior two corrective waves which exactly did not has happened. correction rally from 20000 to 3200 was the shortest correction in last 10 years, where prices fall by -82% and recovered in just 365 days almost half of wave 4. this is really a very suspicious wave which we're dealing right now. i've already predicted this wave as an X wave which usually creates an illusion of beginning of a bull market and ends as a bear trap. you can see all over the internet that sentiments for bitcoin are really big, even higher than 2017s rally. crypto freaks are screaming for 2000, 40000 or even 100000 targets, without any reasons, and here's the time we need to realise that something big is going very wrong and look for the alternatives, coz nothing is impossible.
i think that the next wave which i've indicated as a wave W in chart has started and most probably we won't see prices going higher above 14k for next two years. keep in mind that we're now moving towards the final wave of this major correction, and usually final corrective wave ends at the top of wave 3 or the bottom of wave 4. i think that the top of wave 3 around 1100 is the most likely bottom for this whole correction, coz we're getting 3 major levels here, top of wave 3, 61.8% of wave 5 and 23.6% of the whole 10 years formation, so most likely from this perspective bitcoin could eventually drop to 1100$ level in 2020 or 2021.
now let me be clear here that am not a bull or bear, as a chartist am completely neutral, screw the technology we're here to earn money, if you believe in tech than definitely you're on wrong place, better you ignore charts. and if you think that bitcoin is real money and fiat is scam than you're completely one sided, inflation has its own pros and cons and almost everyone has shown this system as an evil or corrupt, but this system has sustain for more than 100 years, so you just can't replace it's reliability from bitcoin in just few years. i do believe that we would have a better alternative than fiat in near future, but for now current banking system or governments won't allow for a parallel economy or currency, so definitely they wont allow bitcoin to be used as a money coz we already have a legal and more sustainable system, and Mr. President has already signaled this.
plz like and share our hard work thankyou:)
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meanwhile this complete narrative will change if prices recovers heavily and however we cross the 14k level, than buyers will start again to get in aggressively, but this pattern will be valid unless we cross the 20k level and make new all time high
Trade active
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just update the BLX chart now a strong indication or trend reversal has been caught by my custom indicator maybe there could be the beginning of the C wave which i predicted in this chart
Trade active
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just updated and released the 4th part of the trap series which shows more technical data that we are heading towards lower lows, check it out
Trade active
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looks like this is what gonna happen now, honestly didn't expect like this, but it is what it is now...
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Finally published the last part of the trap series, here you see that this prediction is getting to be a reality, most likely prices are now heading down towards 1100 level as expected in this idea
I'm very glad I just encountered your posts amidst the incessant noise of people publishing shitty charts and biased opinions on tradingview.
You, sir, whether you'll ultimately be proven right or wrong by history, are certainly one nice fellow to follow.
Husain_Arkghazi
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@pegonzi, thanks bro i really appreciate your response :)
MarcusAu
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I would say 2009-2013 is one huge Wave 1, not Wave 1, 2 and 3. 2015-2017 is an extended Wave 3, not Wave 5, 2019 to possibly 2022 is the final Wave 5, which could go up to 600 000 USD. My analysis is here:
Now talking about market emotions and fundamentals, more and more users are adopting bitcoin, it's getting more publication. There are still many doubters and naysayers and bears of bitcoin, which is actually a good thing, because the worst crash often happens when most people least expect it. At July 2019, I have observed that many people from the general public are still hesitating and holding their fiat money, they will start the crazy FOMO emotions when BTC breaks above 20000 in the end of this year or early 2020, pushing it to new ATHs.
Husain_Arkghazi
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@willim1066, thanks for sharing my friend but you are comparing bitstamp chart with BLX chart, BLX chart shows the price data from July 2010, whereas bitstamp charts is showing data from aug 2011 which creates the gap of whole wave 1 and wave 2, i recommend you to have a look at BLX chart you can clearly count waves there
MarcusAu
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@Husain_Zabir, yep I saw the BLX chart starting from 2010, my point is that 2009-2013 is the huge Wave 1. Considering BTC was very new and people's expectations on it were not as established as now, it's natural for BTC to crash significantly during the first 2 years of its existence, therefore the 2011 crash should not be identified as the Wave 2 correction. 2009-June 2011 is Wave 1 of Wave 1, Nov 2011-Mar 2013 is Wave 3 of Wave 1, July-Nov 2013 is Wave 5 of Wave 1.
Btw, don't you think if the June-Nov 2011 correction is indeed the Wave 2, its time length is too short? Of course corrections could take quite different time, but the Nov 2013- Jan 2015 correction is so much longer, they don't seem to be on the same timescale at all. This is also why I think June-Nov 2011 is better identified as a subwave.
just5
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@willim1066, I agree with you on the waves, but I think that the 5th wave will be shorter than yours, and the peak will be either at the end of this year or next
Husain_Arkghazi
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@just5, thanks for sharing bro, also consider the blx chart
MarcusAu
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@just5, 80000 by the end of 2019 looks too optimistic, I would say 20000-30000 by December 2019 is a more realistic goal. It looks like BTC will consolidate between 10000 and 12000 for a couple of weeks minimum, maybe more than a month.
Looking at the big picture, I do believe BTC's long term chart pattern is a bit similar to DJI and NASDAQ, which means Wave 5 should be at least similar length to Wave 3 and very possibly longer than Wave 3. Dec 2018-Dec 2019 seems way too short for the Wave 5 of such a grand cycle.
Cryptocomma
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Give me a chart and Ill draw you 10 potential Elliot wave set ups. Don't worry though, I'll end up going with the one that fits my emotional bias ;-)
Husain_Arkghazi
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@Cryptocomma, give me your face pic and i'll draw 10 types of jokers on it, and every joker will be different, but not better than your original one's;)
You, sir, whether you'll ultimately be proven right or wrong by history, are certainly one nice fellow to follow.