It's time for another view at the longterm picture, and for that, we must zoom out again to the monthly timeframe.
It is apparent that this structure here is a bit different from the last bearmarkets. The subsequent bullmarket could therefore also be different.
I think that BTC cycles are getting longer. One must think of BTC as a physical pendulum. The more mass it acquires, the more people are in it if you will, the more inertia it has, and the slower it reacts to changes.
Therefore, I think that the next ATH might be as late as 2024 (latest possible date), but I don't see it make new ATHs before 2022, that is for me the earliest possible date for prices well above 20k.
I still am convinced that another shakeout will occur, this would also fit the theory that BTC is currently coupled to the stock market. Stocks will probably see a brutal sell-off sometime in 2019, and that could co-incide with the BTC low.
If it goes to the 2k area, it should bounce strongly.
So for me, everything significantly below 3k is a very strong buy and longterm hold. Halving 2020 WILL come, and WILL drive up the price again, I am absolutely certain of that.
Look at daily transactions, they are rising again, and will make new ATHs too. Rising Tx, rising users, plus halving will drive up price. This is like a law of nature, hehe. Since I am a physicist, I tend to see BTC as a physical system, with certain laws. And for me, these are laws, which will push BTC up again, no matter what.
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It is really not a strong sign that BTC isn't really bouncing, even though the low at 3200 touched the weekly MA200. This should be bouncing like hell, up into the high 5000s, but no. This increases the likelihood for more bearish scenarios. Meaning 1200 USD as target for the low, also bearmarket lasting longer.
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If this here bounces up to the 5000s, as drawn in this chart, we could get lucky and have the bottom at 1800. The higher this bounce goes, the better the chance to avoid the long bearmarket till mid 2020. Let's watch how high it will go.
I am certain however, that this here is a bounce and not a real reversal.
@sean56, Thanks, the chart is looking good. That would mean a target of about 5500?
s9xbt
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@FlaviusTodorius67, just pointing out the dates of price action from last year compared to what i think may happen this year.. after today's pump it is looking good so far
ReallyMe
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I'll tell you something (just my personal opinion): We're still far far away from the bottom. All parabolic assumptions everybody's making don't cut it. Bitcoin will continue to decline all year 2019 and a large part of 2020.
SebastianofMoon
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@ReallyMe, Yeah, there is a good chance for that, I have that scenario also in mind. The nice thing is, that we'll soon know which way BTC will take :)
The following chart is very good, and I always keep it in mind as a possible scenario:
This would basically be a repeat of the 2011 fractal, and it could really happen, yes.
s9xbt
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I share your same idea i didn't go that far out on mine but i think it will be quite accurate..
s9xbt
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@sean56,
SebastianofMoon
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@sean56, I absolutely agree! Thanks for the good analysis, I will add it to the list of charts which I'll keep a close eye on :) 1800 looks like a very realistic target.
regression_to_logic
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Good work, thanks for sharing!
Your previous work brought me here, good ideas in both, I think. I remeber well, when Gold had fallen during the 2008 sell-off, before that no one thought this would be possible.
So I do think this time some in the Krypto-Markets could be surprised if their "alternative asset" is doing niagara being coupled to the stock market.
But what are people supposed to do, if margin calls are popping up again, they even will sell their grandma then. Or at least BTC;-)
lmk your thoughts on this