Hello and welcome to my idea.
Since early 2018 I was following the progress of this gigantic bubble explosion in this idea:
I want to make a new clean idea now.
I have been following it closely and noting people psychological state.
Recently I check trading view homepage ideas mine are not in here, I am
pretty disapointed as I was trying to show that in these situations bears get
ridiculed and bulls "group up" on them to kick them while they are down.
I do have some content but I wanted more, so it is not only "a coincidence"
"a few bad apples". I have a great number of twitter screenshots on my PC
thought, shall these posts disappear... Also have trading view & other.
I believe Bitcoin 2019 bull market is very close to the end.
What we witnessed in 2018 was not a correction but the start
of a new trend to the downside.
While it was possible that BTC retraces to 0.382 only after hitting 3k,
0.786 was much more likely (~$13500). We got to 13000 today.
So I think the timing for this idea is perfect.
The global economy is completely insane, the FED decisions are very
questionnable, on top of that every one, completely uneducated people,
are getting into investing. The consequences are going to be disastrous.
The examples I am thinking of are:
- The mississippi bubble in the 18th century that resulted in decades of bad economy and then the french revolution ("Let them have cake" - Marie Antoinette)
- The US stock market bubble of 1929 which resulted in World War 2 ("The jews and Poles are parasites and the jews crashed the economy")
We are living at a time where instant gratification is the norm, people are more delusional than ever, and as I said, complete bubble, interest rates and bonds yields are at their lowest in human history, plus the financial world got invaded by complete amateurs.
This month, beyond meat IPO went up 300% in days. There are plenty of crazy examples.
Bitcoin is simply the graphical manifestation of the insanity that is going on.
Here is a recent idea about the Bitcoin bubble within a bubble that is going on.
And another.
We could go for an ABC as described here
Or 12345.
Bitcoin could ABC to 500$ then hoover in the 500-2000 range for a long while. It could become a currency like the other ones.
Why would it not get replaced by something better thought?
There are a few bubbles very similar to Bitcoin, but first I would like to focus on Sugar. In the eighties.
By "last time they said" I refer to what Bitcoin investors keep repeating,
that last time Bitcoin went down some people said it would keep going down and that did not happen.
Which makes absolutely no sense to anyone rational / capable of understanding probabilities / just
understand how bubbles work.
> Great accumulation bottom great entry
> 3.618 total extension, 0.618 wave 5 extension
> Up 650%
> Took exactly the same duration to return to baseline both times
> 0.786 retrace "Back to normal" or phase 6 in hyperwave terms (see bubble charts describing the "back to normal" phenomenon)
> Not completely clear accumulation, no high reward to risk entry (too many eager gambling buyers?)
> At 4.236, wave 5 between 0.618 and 0.786, I expect the top to be in that range
> Up 350% after going parabolic. Total when this is over should be around that number.
> We shall see how long to go down to 3000.
> Almost at 0.786, we probably (?) make it there?
Let's take a look at 2011-2013 "bubble". I do not like the word bubble, definitions are all bad. "Prices rise far above instrisic value". Who is to say what the intrisic value is? Demand and supply is what defines it. If bubbles "exist" as defined, then gold is permanently in a state of bubble, all fiat currencies too. Pretty much everything all the time. This is not a "back to normal", just want to look at extensions.
Mainstream media and all the people invested in it are (OBVIOUSLY for the people invested) saying this is "back to normal".
They are living in an echo chamber and telling every one how they think we are "back to normal", like we expected something else from people that bought...
I have explained how this was soon to fail and shown evidence after evidence. Facts and facts and facts, and even undeniable proof of what was going on, and have shown what always happened in history, just to be ignored or ridiculed. This time it's different.
Just got ridiculed because "it did not happen in the 2 weeks after that post was made". I am being nice, 2 weeks is more than most people attention span nowadays.
Scams can last a long time before dying, but the way things are, I doubt it will last much longer... Surely not 20 more years like Madoff's ponzi scheme.
The investors in this scam have turned insane by greed and the % move (most were probably not very smart to beging with), so this is why it is called "dumb money".
Completely ignoring facts and risk and logic...
A reason for the price to go up is "last time they said". Where some technology is mentionned and the fools that got trapped in this bubble believe that a great number of people were actually bearish on those technology (which is never the case).
I made a list of a few of what was supposed to be the "future" "just like last time they said" and just failed completely.
There are more failures than successes but we remember successes only, and people are not open minded enough and not interested in history (or too lazy or too greedy and in denial) to know that.
Besides, they always seem to mix the technology (Blockchain) which is certainly very interesting, and Bitcoin which is not very different than a ponzi scheme.
As a speculator I am trying to guess what a top could be. Momentum should slow in the 12000-14000 area and I would bet on the downside.
Price could get close to 15000, and the public go completely wild, whales would take this chance to sell their large stacks that can hardly be cashed out (we have seen sells of only 5000 spread over hours drop the price by 10%...).
It is actually not super interesting to trade for plenty of reasons, but I will anyway, for fun & education.
Since early 2018 I was following the progress of this gigantic bubble explosion in this idea:
I want to make a new clean idea now.
I have been following it closely and noting people psychological state.
Recently I check trading view homepage ideas mine are not in here, I am
pretty disapointed as I was trying to show that in these situations bears get
ridiculed and bulls "group up" on them to kick them while they are down.
I do have some content but I wanted more, so it is not only "a coincidence"
"a few bad apples". I have a great number of twitter screenshots on my PC
thought, shall these posts disappear... Also have trading view & other.
I believe Bitcoin 2019 bull market is very close to the end.
What we witnessed in 2018 was not a correction but the start
of a new trend to the downside.
While it was possible that BTC retraces to 0.382 only after hitting 3k,
0.786 was much more likely (~$13500). We got to 13000 today.
So I think the timing for this idea is perfect.
The global economy is completely insane, the FED decisions are very
questionnable, on top of that every one, completely uneducated people,
are getting into investing. The consequences are going to be disastrous.
The examples I am thinking of are:
- The mississippi bubble in the 18th century that resulted in decades of bad economy and then the french revolution ("Let them have cake" - Marie Antoinette)
- The US stock market bubble of 1929 which resulted in World War 2 ("The jews and Poles are parasites and the jews crashed the economy")
We are living at a time where instant gratification is the norm, people are more delusional than ever, and as I said, complete bubble, interest rates and bonds yields are at their lowest in human history, plus the financial world got invaded by complete amateurs.
This month, beyond meat IPO went up 300% in days. There are plenty of crazy examples.
Bitcoin is simply the graphical manifestation of the insanity that is going on.
Here is a recent idea about the Bitcoin bubble within a bubble that is going on.
And another.
We could go for an ABC as described here
Or 12345.
Bitcoin could ABC to 500$ then hoover in the 500-2000 range for a long while. It could become a currency like the other ones.
Why would it not get replaced by something better thought?
There are a few bubbles very similar to Bitcoin, but first I would like to focus on Sugar. In the eighties.
By "last time they said" I refer to what Bitcoin investors keep repeating,
that last time Bitcoin went down some people said it would keep going down and that did not happen.
Which makes absolutely no sense to anyone rational / capable of understanding probabilities / just
understand how bubbles work.
> 3.618 total extension, 0.618 wave 5 extension
> Up 650%
> Took exactly the same duration to return to baseline both times
> 0.786 retrace "Back to normal" or phase 6 in hyperwave terms (see bubble charts describing the "back to normal" phenomenon)
> At 4.236, wave 5 between 0.618 and 0.786, I expect the top to be in that range
> Up 350% after going parabolic. Total when this is over should be around that number.
> We shall see how long to go down to 3000.
> Almost at 0.786, we probably (?) make it there?
Let's take a look at 2011-2013 "bubble". I do not like the word bubble, definitions are all bad. "Prices rise far above instrisic value". Who is to say what the intrisic value is? Demand and supply is what defines it. If bubbles "exist" as defined, then gold is permanently in a state of bubble, all fiat currencies too. Pretty much everything all the time. This is not a "back to normal", just want to look at extensions.
Mainstream media and all the people invested in it are (OBVIOUSLY for the people invested) saying this is "back to normal".
They are living in an echo chamber and telling every one how they think we are "back to normal", like we expected something else from people that bought...
I have explained how this was soon to fail and shown evidence after evidence. Facts and facts and facts, and even undeniable proof of what was going on, and have shown what always happened in history, just to be ignored or ridiculed. This time it's different.
![[TOO LATE?] It's worse than wash trading. Ponzi collapse!](https://s3.tradingview.com/2/2WcTPMWy_big.png)
Just got ridiculed because "it did not happen in the 2 weeks after that post was made". I am being nice, 2 weeks is more than most people attention span nowadays.
Scams can last a long time before dying, but the way things are, I doubt it will last much longer... Surely not 20 more years like Madoff's ponzi scheme.
The investors in this scam have turned insane by greed and the % move (most were probably not very smart to beging with), so this is why it is called "dumb money".
Completely ignoring facts and risk and logic...
A reason for the price to go up is "last time they said". Where some technology is mentionned and the fools that got trapped in this bubble believe that a great number of people were actually bearish on those technology (which is never the case).
I made a list of a few of what was supposed to be the "future" "just like last time they said" and just failed completely.
There are more failures than successes but we remember successes only, and people are not open minded enough and not interested in history (or too lazy or too greedy and in denial) to know that.
Besides, they always seem to mix the technology (Blockchain) which is certainly very interesting, and Bitcoin which is not very different than a ponzi scheme.
As a speculator I am trying to guess what a top could be. Momentum should slow in the 12000-14000 area and I would bet on the downside.
Price could get close to 15000, and the public go completely wild, whales would take this chance to sell their large stacks that can hardly be cashed out (we have seen sells of only 5000 spread over hours drop the price by 10%...).
It is actually not super interesting to trade for plenty of reasons, but I will anyway, for fun & education.
Comment:
As this bull market is close to being over, I want to make a call about the next bull market:
- Will start from $500 or $1000. Or $1800 even, or something else. We will know more when we get closer.
- Should happen in 2021.
- Will be a complex correction.
- Bulls will call the move "sustainable", clear proof it is the start of a new massive bull market.
- Bulls will say that since there is no strong buying, it is the clear sign the market is in disbelief, and clear proof that a big bull market started
- We will "only" bounce ~150% (I don't really know how much, but less than the 2019 bubble).
- Bulls will ignore the fact that the price on the monthly chart made lower highs and lower lows and "are in for the long run"
- Once again, as I predicted in 2018, people will tell me I am angry for missing out on this new bull market I never saw coming
- I expect a bounce on ~2k and "wickoff theory", bulls in this market ALWAYS find reasons for the price to go up. But not necessarilly a 6 months or more bull market from there.
- Will start from $500 or $1000. Or $1800 even, or something else. We will know more when we get closer.
- Should happen in 2021.
- Will be a complex correction.
- Bulls will call the move "sustainable", clear proof it is the start of a new massive bull market.
- Bulls will say that since there is no strong buying, it is the clear sign the market is in disbelief, and clear proof that a big bull market started
- We will "only" bounce ~150% (I don't really know how much, but less than the 2019 bubble).
- Bulls will ignore the fact that the price on the monthly chart made lower highs and lower lows and "are in for the long run"
- Once again, as I predicted in 2018, people will tell me I am angry for missing out on this new bull market I never saw coming
- I expect a bounce on ~2k and "wickoff theory", bulls in this market ALWAYS find reasons for the price to go up. But not necessarilly a 6 months or more bull market from there.
Comment:
"You have to understand that we are making absolute massive progress and companies profit increases are never ending. Last time they said it was over during the 1793 bubble. And then they said it was over in the 1810s. And now, the ones that missed out the chance of their lives are saying the bubble market of the 1820s is the biggest of all bubbles and when it ends."
When (??? certainly they were people bearish - not too much data from that bubble ???) they were dismissed as scaremongers and accused of failing to understand the changes in the UK economy.
Canal Mania speculative frenzy did not end well...
---
"You have to understand that now that new media such as newpapers is available, as well as the modern stock market making it easy for the public to learn about companies as well as invest in them, AND the money going directly into the construction of railways connecting the whole world together and neabling a big boom in trading, the expansion and returns are near infinite".
When bishops and investors warned against avarice they were dismissed as scaremongers and accused of failing to understand the changes in the UK economy. Too old, and too conservative.
The railway bubble did not end well for alot of those that "invested" in it.
---
"You have to understand that it is a new financial world, now we run a global economy so it is normal if we get much bigger."
"If the orgy of 'unrestrained speculation' in the stock market does not stop, it will 'bring about a general depression involving the whole country'."
Investment banker Paul M Warburg was dismissed as a scaremonger and accused of failing to understand the changes in the US economy when he made this statement, in summer 1929.
Paul M Warburg was right... 90% crash and massive recession that led to WW2...
---
"You have to understand that the digitalisation and automation of things with the internet means the old economical models do not work anymore. We now can have infinite productivity."
"What we are seeing now is irrational exhuberance in the markets"
Ex-Fed and economist Alan Greenspan in the mid 90s.
"I am not going to predict the general stock market, what we do is look at the valuation of individual companies, but I will say that even thought I believe there is a revolution in the information technology, I think that people expect too much from it".
Billionaire investor Warren Buffet in 1999.
Alan Greenspan and Warren Buffet were dismissed as scaremongers and accused of failing to understand the changes in the US economy when they made these statement.
What followed was a crash of over 80% in the tech sector, a 100% crash of dot com IPOs, and a decade long recession that led to the 2008 MBS & housing market crash.
---
"You have to understand that fiat currencies are failing and the world economy is changing, this is why Bitcoin (a Fiat currency) is taking over. The old models do not work anymore because it is mathematically impossible for it to go to zero, and besides, last time they said."
When nobel prize winning economists & investment bankers & investors said that is was nothing more than a ponzi scheme, and/or a bubble waiting to pop, they were dismissed as scaremongers and accused of failing to understand the changes in the global economy...
---
"You have to understand that with renawable energies and (recycling) biotech we can literally NEVER run out of ressources. Bears simply have not understood this simple fact."
When Trader and investor MrRenev said in 2055 that these companies were way overvalued he was dismissed as a scaremonger and too old to understand the changes to the world economy...
Oh, scaremongering = SPREADING FUD!
When (??? certainly they were people bearish - not too much data from that bubble ???) they were dismissed as scaremongers and accused of failing to understand the changes in the UK economy.
Canal Mania speculative frenzy did not end well...
---
"You have to understand that now that new media such as newpapers is available, as well as the modern stock market making it easy for the public to learn about companies as well as invest in them, AND the money going directly into the construction of railways connecting the whole world together and neabling a big boom in trading, the expansion and returns are near infinite".
When bishops and investors warned against avarice they were dismissed as scaremongers and accused of failing to understand the changes in the UK economy. Too old, and too conservative.
The railway bubble did not end well for alot of those that "invested" in it.
---
"You have to understand that it is a new financial world, now we run a global economy so it is normal if we get much bigger."
"If the orgy of 'unrestrained speculation' in the stock market does not stop, it will 'bring about a general depression involving the whole country'."
Investment banker Paul M Warburg was dismissed as a scaremonger and accused of failing to understand the changes in the US economy when he made this statement, in summer 1929.
Paul M Warburg was right... 90% crash and massive recession that led to WW2...
---
"You have to understand that the digitalisation and automation of things with the internet means the old economical models do not work anymore. We now can have infinite productivity."
"What we are seeing now is irrational exhuberance in the markets"
Ex-Fed and economist Alan Greenspan in the mid 90s.
"I am not going to predict the general stock market, what we do is look at the valuation of individual companies, but I will say that even thought I believe there is a revolution in the information technology, I think that people expect too much from it".
Billionaire investor Warren Buffet in 1999.
Alan Greenspan and Warren Buffet were dismissed as scaremongers and accused of failing to understand the changes in the US economy when they made these statement.
What followed was a crash of over 80% in the tech sector, a 100% crash of dot com IPOs, and a decade long recession that led to the 2008 MBS & housing market crash.
---
"You have to understand that fiat currencies are failing and the world economy is changing, this is why Bitcoin (a Fiat currency) is taking over. The old models do not work anymore because it is mathematically impossible for it to go to zero, and besides, last time they said."
When nobel prize winning economists & investment bankers & investors said that is was nothing more than a ponzi scheme, and/or a bubble waiting to pop, they were dismissed as scaremongers and accused of failing to understand the changes in the global economy...
---
"You have to understand that with renawable energies and (recycling) biotech we can literally NEVER run out of ressources. Bears simply have not understood this simple fact."
When Trader and investor MrRenev said in 2055 that these companies were way overvalued he was dismissed as a scaremonger and too old to understand the changes to the world economy...
Oh, scaremongering = SPREADING FUD!
Comment:
Writing this here because I know otherwise I won't be able to find it.
Currencies have been publicly traded since 1200 or 1300, commodities & securities since 1600 something I think. Pretty much since the Tulip bubble(s).
Pretty much since the start of the modern civilized world and the end of mud-dwelling people of the middle ages that all threw their feces out of the window and all worked in the fields and a 1 chance in 5 to make it to adulthood...
Since then, around the world, we have kept repeating the big 3:
- This is a new paradigm and this time it's different.
- Last time they said, so do not sell (if you bought early you would have made...)
- Who shorted the market? How did the government let it happen?
For 400 years to appease the idiots (I do not mean to be insulting, the name these people were given is "dumb money" - ok I'll be honest I meant to be insulting :p) that got burned, governements have been making idiotic regulations and acts that prevent markets from working efficiently (keep in mind that before financial markets people were burning witches all day long and wiping their behinds with their hands - something like that).
The next bubble in the stock market (after the current one) will probably be (and if it is not the next one it will come later on - if civilisation has not collapsed until then) BIOTECH & RENEWABLES.
These things seem to have a lot of potential, not only prevents us from all dying (whether you are in denial about it or not), but can become pretty profitable, only the short term will not be...
There are so many great advancements.
Some cool secondary effects would be being able to easilly terraform planets.
Idiots will be bullish at the top long term (wow, what visionaries!).
I can already predict the arguments
"YES! I repeat myself, this time it is different. This time the survival of our species is at stake" Yawn bla bla bla every time it is different.
"If you are a bear you are the devil, you want to profit from mass extinction"
"Since we recycle and use sun energy we have infinite returns at not cost"
BLAH. BLAH. BLAH. Going to be the same dumb nonsense as usual.
Tech stocks got Nasdaq, maybe biotech etc gets their own exchange? How about a worldwide exchange? Would be nice. And use an international currency (that is not Bitcoin).
To be early investors in this next bubble... Well I think it will be after the current stock market crashes, so no hurry.
You did not need to invest in the internet in 1970. 1990-1995 would have been early enough.
As usual, as long as we read financial news / follow on twitter etc (not CNBC lol), it will all be very clear, for years. We will hear of it very early. And people will ignore it for years, until it goes parabolic. Then we dump.
Currencies have been publicly traded since 1200 or 1300, commodities & securities since 1600 something I think. Pretty much since the Tulip bubble(s).
Pretty much since the start of the modern civilized world and the end of mud-dwelling people of the middle ages that all threw their feces out of the window and all worked in the fields and a 1 chance in 5 to make it to adulthood...
Since then, around the world, we have kept repeating the big 3:
- This is a new paradigm and this time it's different.
- Last time they said, so do not sell (if you bought early you would have made...)
- Who shorted the market? How did the government let it happen?
For 400 years to appease the idiots (I do not mean to be insulting, the name these people were given is "dumb money" - ok I'll be honest I meant to be insulting :p) that got burned, governements have been making idiotic regulations and acts that prevent markets from working efficiently (keep in mind that before financial markets people were burning witches all day long and wiping their behinds with their hands - something like that).
The next bubble in the stock market (after the current one) will probably be (and if it is not the next one it will come later on - if civilisation has not collapsed until then) BIOTECH & RENEWABLES.
These things seem to have a lot of potential, not only prevents us from all dying (whether you are in denial about it or not), but can become pretty profitable, only the short term will not be...
There are so many great advancements.
Some cool secondary effects would be being able to easilly terraform planets.
Idiots will be bullish at the top long term (wow, what visionaries!).
I can already predict the arguments
"YES! I repeat myself, this time it is different. This time the survival of our species is at stake" Yawn bla bla bla every time it is different.
"If you are a bear you are the devil, you want to profit from mass extinction"
"Since we recycle and use sun energy we have infinite returns at not cost"
BLAH. BLAH. BLAH. Going to be the same dumb nonsense as usual.
Tech stocks got Nasdaq, maybe biotech etc gets their own exchange? How about a worldwide exchange? Would be nice. And use an international currency (that is not Bitcoin).
To be early investors in this next bubble... Well I think it will be after the current stock market crashes, so no hurry.
You did not need to invest in the internet in 1970. 1990-1995 would have been early enough.
As usual, as long as we read financial news / follow on twitter etc (not CNBC lol), it will all be very clear, for years. We will hear of it very early. And people will ignore it for years, until it goes parabolic. Then we dump.
Comment:
And so it happened...
The 3 big places where there are short positions are Bitfinex, Bitmex, the CME.
CME are futures and it might all just be hedging or something, 2/3 of the volume are institutions andnever moves, Bitmex are derivatives for speculators (with high funding to force people to be active) and Bitfinex are spot. They represent a big part of short selling.
Maybe someone is moving his shorts to somewhere else? I doubt it thought...
We are back to December 17, 2017 levels...
The last bear whale gave up...
Every one is bullish...
Gamblers are celebrating their imaginary gains and showing off.
I am trading this, I still want a nice double top to go short.
No one makes money just guessing the vague general direction the price will move in the future. Well no one that is not a scammer.
It's last bubble peak all over again.
There is also more and more news of exchanges exit scamming.
Rince and repeat history will keep repeating itself for a long time...
The 3 big places where there are short positions are Bitfinex, Bitmex, the CME.
CME are futures and it might all just be hedging or something, 2/3 of the volume are institutions andnever moves, Bitmex are derivatives for speculators (with high funding to force people to be active) and Bitfinex are spot. They represent a big part of short selling.
Maybe someone is moving his shorts to somewhere else? I doubt it thought...
We are back to December 17, 2017 levels...
The last bear whale gave up...
Every one is bullish...
Gamblers are celebrating their imaginary gains and showing off.
I am trading this, I still want a nice double top to go short.
No one makes money just guessing the vague general direction the price will move in the future. Well no one that is not a scammer.
It's last bubble peak all over again.
There is also more and more news of exchanges exit scamming.
Rince and repeat history will keep repeating itself for a long time...
Comment:
Bitcoin weekly candle has closed, and I am worried. I want to get filled at 14k but I do not know if we will see that. My only hope is that people are dumb enough to buy now. Or I could scale in? Since I do not trade 10 currencies and a bunch of commodities and am desperate to get on the BTC train. Oh wait, I am not.
Comment:
Things seem too perfect... Makes me wonder if I see what I want to see or if I am objective...
But the thing is each time I doubt myself I end up having been right, I even cancelled trades because it seemed too obvious too perfect too easy I just missed an easy win.
The complacent way BTC baggies are acting leads me to believe we are probably here:
I have noticed crypto bagholders were complacent... and adding what I have seen since late 2018 we have this:
But the thing is each time I doubt myself I end up having been right, I even cancelled trades because it seemed too obvious too perfect too easy I just missed an easy win.
The complacent way BTC baggies are acting leads me to believe we are probably here:
I have noticed crypto bagholders were complacent... and adding what I have seen since late 2018 we have this:
Comment:
Apparently I did not invent anything, there is even a name for this: echo bubble.
Feelsbadman.
Well anyway everyone involved in crypto - a good 95% - is falling for this sucker rally/echo bubble so this makes me special. And also I called it since early 2018.
It feels weird that the rally lasts less long than accumulation...
Really looks like we are in distribution now.
One could argue that 2013 was the same, a very short rally.
Feelsbadman.
Well anyway everyone involved in crypto - a good 95% - is falling for this sucker rally/echo bubble so this makes me special. And also I called it since early 2018.
It feels weird that the rally lasts less long than accumulation...
Really looks like we are in distribution now.
One could argue that 2013 was the same, a very short rally.
Comment:
Historical moment!
Shorts on Bitfinex have gone to zero!
Ok not literally zero but all time low.
NO ONE is shorting this.
I am getting pretty enthusiastic.
Also a big imbalance on Bitmex, 60/40 but Bitfinex is now at >80% bulls / < 20% bears.
They just have closed their site for an unannounced maintenance.
I do not really expect much from that but it could be an exit scam who knows.
People have been pointing and laughing at me for 6 months, because they forgot who told them to buy at 3k, over and over. I spent all of 2018 saying BTC would bottom at 3200 or 1800. And after it became clear 3k was it, I posted this:
I get it now! They are so incredibly stupid they did not manage to figure out the chart was inverted! WOW! Simply WOW!
Just insane...
I also had a long trade at 8000 tgt 13k with danger zones at 9700 11700:
Aaaaand I also had a buy at 10300 that should be closed green by now:
I only shorted BTC when the momentum slowed, and each time it slowed the price made another drop:
I am the one that missed out the least, without taking any stupid risk.
And they spent all this time insulting me XD
So this is why they kept ignoring anything I said and telling me I missed out and got burned and not realizing how stupid they look? They were not able to figure out a chart was inverted? Jeez.
Shorts on Bitfinex have gone to zero!
Ok not literally zero but all time low.
NO ONE is shorting this.
I am getting pretty enthusiastic.
Also a big imbalance on Bitmex, 60/40 but Bitfinex is now at >80% bulls / < 20% bears.
They just have closed their site for an unannounced maintenance.
I do not really expect much from that but it could be an exit scam who knows.
People have been pointing and laughing at me for 6 months, because they forgot who told them to buy at 3k, over and over. I spent all of 2018 saying BTC would bottom at 3200 or 1800. And after it became clear 3k was it, I posted this:
I get it now! They are so incredibly stupid they did not manage to figure out the chart was inverted! WOW! Simply WOW!
Just insane...
I also had a long trade at 8000 tgt 13k with danger zones at 9700 11700:
Aaaaand I also had a buy at 10300 that should be closed green by now:
I only shorted BTC when the momentum slowed, and each time it slowed the price made another drop:
I am the one that missed out the least, without taking any stupid risk.
And they spent all this time insulting me XD
So this is why they kept ignoring anything I said and telling me I missed out and got burned and not realizing how stupid they look? They were not able to figure out a chart was inverted? Jeez.
Comment:
I haven't heard from Enron bulls in a while... What's wrong? Hello? Where are you?
Enron went up 3000% and the delusional bears were so wrong for years.
Come on where are you? Woohoo please speak up. All I hear are crickets.
As we all know there are no famous bear that profited massively from Enron jump to zero, they all got decimated when ENRON went up 3000%.
I cannot believe some people were still bearish on ENRON when it went up 3000% LOL.
They just could not admit how wrong they were.
Oh how they got rekt. If I am too stupid to figure out how to manage trades, then obviously every one else is too!
I never see on tv famous bears that called ENRON a scam for years and profited massively from its crash. All I see are the ENRON millionaires. The wise investors that bought.
Why does TradingView not have ENRON chart? Looks like anamazing investment to me.
Strange that I do not hear much from the bulls on it. I wonder why.
Enron went up 3000% and the delusional bears were so wrong for years.
Come on where are you? Woohoo please speak up. All I hear are crickets.
As we all know there are no famous bear that profited massively from Enron jump to zero, they all got decimated when ENRON went up 3000%.
I cannot believe some people were still bearish on ENRON when it went up 3000% LOL.
They just could not admit how wrong they were.
Oh how they got rekt. If I am too stupid to figure out how to manage trades, then obviously every one else is too!
I never see on tv famous bears that called ENRON a scam for years and profited massively from its crash. All I see are the ENRON millionaires. The wise investors that bought.
Why does TradingView not have ENRON chart? Looks like anamazing investment to me.
Strange that I do not hear much from the bulls on it. I wonder why.
Comment:
WOW. ENRON CEO JUST GOT OUT OF JAIL AND IS BUILDING A CRYPTOCURRENCY BUSINESS.
CAN'T MAKE THIS UP.
CAN'T MAKE THIS UP.
Comment:
Several politicians have commented on ponzi currencies, all negatively as far as I know, but this is the first time I see a comment from the US president, he did not even wait to be re-elected.
"I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air. Unregulated Crypto Assets can facilitate unlawful behavior, including drug trade and other illegal activity....
....Similarly, Facebook Libra’s “virtual currency” will have little standing or dependability. If Facebook and other companies want to become a bank, they must seek a new Banking Charter and become subject to all Banking Regulations, just like other Banks, both National...
...and International. We have only one real currency in the USA, and it is stronger than ever, both dependable and reliable. It is by far the most dominant currency anywhere in the World, and it will always stay that way. It is called the United States Dollar!"
I am very happy to hear this.
"I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air. Unregulated Crypto Assets can facilitate unlawful behavior, including drug trade and other illegal activity....
....Similarly, Facebook Libra’s “virtual currency” will have little standing or dependability. If Facebook and other companies want to become a bank, they must seek a new Banking Charter and become subject to all Banking Regulations, just like other Banks, both National...
...and International. We have only one real currency in the USA, and it is stronger than ever, both dependable and reliable. It is by far the most dominant currency anywhere in the World, and it will always stay that way. It is called the United States Dollar!"
I am very happy to hear this.
Comment:
32 weeks since the bottom at $3200 and whoever bought there is up 200% or 3.5% a week and euphoric about it.
3.5% a week, the kind of numbers they laugh at...
I will make another update like this at 52 weeks.
I waste too much time for nothing on crypto I'd rather focus on currencies or just relax, I need to be making actual money and I am tired of wasting too much time on this ponzi for nothing. It is like a vice wasting my time.
I probably quit crypto after summer vacation, will just make occasional posts.
Or at least I will try.
I really want to focus on more interesting things, my currencies metals energy, and if really I want to diversify and look at more "concrete" things that I can talk about to "casuals" it would be much more productive if I looked at stocks.
If this ponzi could have a quick death it would help me waste less time...
But that won't happen. If crypto get banned maybe they are banned from trading view. I would not mind. Really sucking the productivity out of all of us, just like it sucks electricity for no reason. What a cancer.
Any recovering addict wants to quit crypto with me?
Might be easier if we make a group.
3.5% a week, the kind of numbers they laugh at...
I will make another update like this at 52 weeks.
I waste too much time for nothing on crypto I'd rather focus on currencies or just relax, I need to be making actual money and I am tired of wasting too much time on this ponzi for nothing. It is like a vice wasting my time.
I probably quit crypto after summer vacation, will just make occasional posts.
Or at least I will try.
I really want to focus on more interesting things, my currencies metals energy, and if really I want to diversify and look at more "concrete" things that I can talk about to "casuals" it would be much more productive if I looked at stocks.
If this ponzi could have a quick death it would help me waste less time...
But that won't happen. If crypto get banned maybe they are banned from trading view. I would not mind. Really sucking the productivity out of all of us, just like it sucks electricity for no reason. What a cancer.
Any recovering addict wants to quit crypto with me?
Might be easier if we make a group.
Comment:
If you bought Bitcoin (BTC) 3 years ago for $750 you now made 1.5% a week or ~6.5% a month
If you bought Bitcoin (BTC) in 2014 for $400 you made 1.14% a week or ~5% a month
If you bought Bitcoin (BTC) in 2012 for $5 you made 1.93% a week or ~8.5% a month
If you bought Bitcoin at "the bottom" at $6000 in June 2018 you made 0.8% a week or ~3.5% a month
If you bought Bitcoin at "the dip" in Dec 2017 at $15000 you made -0.55% a week or ~-2.5% a month
If you bought Bitcoin at $7000 10 weeks ago you made 3% a week & hope to beat 2012
From bottom to top in the 2011-2013 period Bitcoin did 6.125% a week or 29% a month
From bottom to top in the 2015-2017 period Bitcoin did 3.2% a week or 14.5% a month
From bottom to top in 2019 Bitcoin did 4.4% a week or 20% a month
From 2015 bottom to june 2016 top Bitcoin went up ~ 370% same as 2019 and made 1.8% a week or 8% a month
If you bought Bitcoin (BTC) in 2014 for $400 you made 1.14% a week or ~5% a month
If you bought Bitcoin (BTC) in 2012 for $5 you made 1.93% a week or ~8.5% a month
If you bought Bitcoin at "the bottom" at $6000 in June 2018 you made 0.8% a week or ~3.5% a month
If you bought Bitcoin at "the dip" in Dec 2017 at $15000 you made -0.55% a week or ~-2.5% a month
If you bought Bitcoin at $7000 10 weeks ago you made 3% a week & hope to beat 2012
From bottom to top in the 2011-2013 period Bitcoin did 6.125% a week or 29% a month
From bottom to top in the 2015-2017 period Bitcoin did 3.2% a week or 14.5% a month
From bottom to top in 2019 Bitcoin did 4.4% a week or 20% a month
From 2015 bottom to june 2016 top Bitcoin went up ~ 370% same as 2019 and made 1.8% a week or 8% a month
Comment:
The year is 2035.
Collectors are willing to pay thousands of dollars for Satoshi original wallets keys.
Collectors are willing to pay thousands of dollars for Satoshi original wallets keys.
Comment:
The Bitcoin 2019 bubble has stopped going up at 13900 (4.236 extension), and the price has been in distribution for 6 weeks.
There might be a double top, which would be interesting to short, or not, but in either case this looks like 14k was the top of this echo bubble.
Paradigms usually last 10 years and at the end of that period the majority thinks it will continue forever.
Bitcoin has been in the same paradigm for 10 years... Well it started trading in 2010 so maybe 9 years. 9 years of price go up many % and "last time they said".
A paradigm of bears being wrong and the price going up, but soon I think we will find out that I was right when I made this call in 2018, the BTC mega bull paradigm is over we will see a new bubble that will make a lower high, and then go down & down & down.
In 2018 people were silent but in 2019 during the bubble (that I predicted) there were hordes of bulls calling me (and other public bears) an idiot, celebrating, even thought we made a lower high.
Soon over... It's always the same story...
A new paradigm for BTC could be that it starts behaving like FX (with ups and downs frequently rather than straight up bull markets over and over with fomo idiots getting excited) and becomes a currency but it is trash I think it just goes to zero.
Perhaps BTC trully shifts when the stock market does.
I gave up on speculating on BTC short term. It is too slow for me and I have to split money between my main FX accounts and Bitmex, plus it takes time to TA and it's just annoying to wait forever.
With FX I got 20 times as many opportunities... At least 10 times but probably 20.
No brainer.
I will continue to look at BTC on the weekly chart, and laugh, as all the little BTC "investors" haters are going to act as victims and whine "you are evil if you laugh at the misfortune of your fellow man" but it's too late for them, the hundreds of clowns that commented hate in our comments. No excuse now <3
I think just looking at the chart once a month is enough. 99% of the time nothing new happens so...
There might be a double top, which would be interesting to short, or not, but in either case this looks like 14k was the top of this echo bubble.
Paradigms usually last 10 years and at the end of that period the majority thinks it will continue forever.
Bitcoin has been in the same paradigm for 10 years... Well it started trading in 2010 so maybe 9 years. 9 years of price go up many % and "last time they said".
A paradigm of bears being wrong and the price going up, but soon I think we will find out that I was right when I made this call in 2018, the BTC mega bull paradigm is over we will see a new bubble that will make a lower high, and then go down & down & down.
In 2018 people were silent but in 2019 during the bubble (that I predicted) there were hordes of bulls calling me (and other public bears) an idiot, celebrating, even thought we made a lower high.
Soon over... It's always the same story...
A new paradigm for BTC could be that it starts behaving like FX (with ups and downs frequently rather than straight up bull markets over and over with fomo idiots getting excited) and becomes a currency but it is trash I think it just goes to zero.
Perhaps BTC trully shifts when the stock market does.
I gave up on speculating on BTC short term. It is too slow for me and I have to split money between my main FX accounts and Bitmex, plus it takes time to TA and it's just annoying to wait forever.
With FX I got 20 times as many opportunities... At least 10 times but probably 20.
No brainer.
I will continue to look at BTC on the weekly chart, and laugh, as all the little BTC "investors" haters are going to act as victims and whine "you are evil if you laugh at the misfortune of your fellow man" but it's too late for them, the hundreds of clowns that commented hate in our comments. No excuse now <3
I think just looking at the chart once a month is enough. 99% of the time nothing new happens so...
Comment:
Calling it now 2019 top will be a double top.
20K top was a H&S, 14K will be a double top imo.
1100 was a double top.
20K top was a H&S, 14K will be a double top imo.
1100 was a double top.
Comment:
Here is a recent comparative chart I posted a few time, that very very few BTC die hards cared about.
Well interestingly, since last week/2 weeks, the Yuan has been getting hammered, and both Bitcoin and Tether ponzis have been - ahem brace yourselves - TRADING AT A 1-2% DISCOUNT.
HERE
GOES
YOUR
"SAFE
HAVEN"
Lmao I can't believe anyone called this 50% drop in 1 hour ponzi scheme a safe haven :D
They're still going to argue, and look dumb, what can we do :p
Well interestingly, since last week/2 weeks, the Yuan has been getting hammered, and both Bitcoin and Tether ponzis have been - ahem brace yourselves - TRADING AT A 1-2% DISCOUNT.
HERE
GOES
YOUR
"SAFE
HAVEN"
Lmao I can't believe anyone called this 50% drop in 1 hour ponzi scheme a safe haven :D
They're still going to argue, and look dumb, what can we do :p
Comment:
> We know since the dawn of time that wealthy / very wealthy people are very frugal aka "cheap", they do not gamble ever, they are known in current times to walk half a mile to not have to pay a 50 cent fee even as multi millionaires.
> Bitcoin believers clowns, now that BTC went mainstream and every gambler on the planet bought (over 5% of the entire planet), are still waiting for the wealthy to buy their bags.
They are going to wait a long time (><).
> Bitcoin believers clowns, now that BTC went mainstream and every gambler on the planet bought (over 5% of the entire planet), are still waiting for the wealthy to buy their bags.
They are going to wait a long time (><).
Comment:
Things moved slowly as expected.
I think in the next 3 weeks or at most by november, the price will move very fast, likely to the downside.
Best scenario for traders is BTC retesting the TL at around 14k in september, high risk reward AND high probability short then.
I think in the next 3 weeks or at most by november, the price will move very fast, likely to the downside.
Best scenario for traders is BTC retesting the TL at around 14k in september, high risk reward AND high probability short then.
Comment:
Unsurprisingly the echo bubble is behaving just like the 2017-2018 one...
What a joke.
What a joke.
Comment:
I can totally see something like this happening:
Step 1
Step 2
Step 3
Step 1
Step 2
Step 3
Comment:
Comparing Bitcoin to a bubble of the past, this pattern is possible, doesn't seem very far fetched:
Actually this might be the most similar one:
Actually this might be the most similar one:
Comment:
Looks alot like Nikkei tbh... Interesting...
Comment:
Bakkt was a failure and the price dropped...
Likely going to be a few days before downwards continuation, and a few weeks before returning to $3000-$5000.
The 2019 BTC bubble burst. Complacency/Denial lasted 3 months (end of june to end of september).
The very strong titanium $9000 support was lost...
Same story over and over...
Likely going to be a few days before downwards continuation, and a few weeks before returning to $3000-$5000.
The 2019 BTC bubble burst. Complacency/Denial lasted 3 months (end of june to end of september).
The very strong titanium $9000 support was lost...
Same story over and over...
Comment:
I really think that unfortunately 1000 will be the bottom for a while...
It will be a very long while until we see 3 digits :(
It will be a very long while until we see 3 digits :(
Comment:
Ponzi coin bounce in the 3-4k area Dec 2019
Ponzi coin reaches 1000-1800 by Q1 2021
Ponzi coin reaches 1000-1800 by Q1 2021
Comment:
BTC dumps have been happening in 3.
This is what we can expect:
This is what we can expect:
Comment:
Bitcoin will hit 3k in 2 months.
Bitcoin will hit the ground in less than 3 years.
Brace yourselves for "Investing is for sneaky cowards it rewards the weak hands and punishes honest workers with strong hands".
Bitcoin will hit the ground in less than 3 years.
Brace yourselves for "Investing is for sneaky cowards it rewards the weak hands and punishes honest workers with strong hands".
Comment:
I found out thanks to the magic of twitter about the "founding father of securities fraud".
One day I'll make a website where I keep all of this (ostrich bubble, japan rabbit bubble, tulips, mississipi, canal, railway, silk trees, bitcoin obviously, and plenty others I can't remember right now), but for now, it will be in this idea.
We never hear of the suckers that get scammed. Only the 15 years old that bought excrements and got lucky.
One day I'll make a website where I keep all of this (ostrich bubble, japan rabbit bubble, tulips, mississipi, canal, railway, silk trees, bitcoin obviously, and plenty others I can't remember right now), but for now, it will be in this idea.
We never hear of the suckers that get scammed. Only the 15 years old that bought excrements and got lucky.
Comment:
A postulate:
Comment:
Let's look at some charts.
Today Bakkt volume was 70 BTC by the way.
Today Bakkt volume was 70 BTC by the way.
Comment:
At the Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique of Lyon, France (Group of analysis and economical theory), they took a group of a few dozen students and made them trade an imaginary asset.
This is what the price looked like:
This is one of their papers:
ideas.repec.org/p/ha...halshs-00768434.html
This is incredible, I love it.
"Efficient markets they said" HAHAHA!
UUuuh but muf fundamental value. New tech.
Oh, and this time too, it was different.
A quote from the article:
" Short-term bonus contracts increase price deviations but only when markets include a higher share of male traders. At the individual level, the introduction of bonus contracts increases the trading activity of males, probably due to their higher competitiveness."
More study is required.. Honestly I think males are more crazy, delusional. Definitely more delusional. "I am awesome I can't be wrong I am strong I am smart I am this I am that". No you're not xd
Just a ginormous ego, which makes it easy for someone that knows what they are doing and understands probabilities to extract money from them.
There are so many braindead mma fighters and rappers that are b*** deep in Bitcoin and persuaded they're geniusses xddddd
The rekt will be amazing :D They're probably going to grunt and hit a wall "grrr grrr".
This is what the price looked like:
This is one of their papers:
ideas.repec.org/p/ha...halshs-00768434.html
This is incredible, I love it.
"Efficient markets they said" HAHAHA!
UUuuh but muf fundamental value. New tech.
Oh, and this time too, it was different.
A quote from the article:
" Short-term bonus contracts increase price deviations but only when markets include a higher share of male traders. At the individual level, the introduction of bonus contracts increases the trading activity of males, probably due to their higher competitiveness."
More study is required.. Honestly I think males are more crazy, delusional. Definitely more delusional. "I am awesome I can't be wrong I am strong I am smart I am this I am that". No you're not xd
Just a ginormous ego, which makes it easy for someone that knows what they are doing and understands probabilities to extract money from them.
There are so many braindead mma fighters and rappers that are b*** deep in Bitcoin and persuaded they're geniusses xddddd
The rekt will be amazing :D They're probably going to grunt and hit a wall "grrr grrr".
Comment:
As scammy as ever.
Same old, same old...
And so on.
It does not always work
But it often does, especially under the right circumstances.
I think it does always work with trendlines until now.
Similar situation to the scam pump of late october 2018...
Same old, same old...
And so on.
It does not always work
But it often does, especially under the right circumstances.
I think it does always work with trendlines until now.
Similar situation to the scam pump of late october 2018...
Comment:
A single anonymous market manipulator caused bitcoin to top $20,000 two years ago, study shows
“Almost the entire price impact can be attributed to this one large player,” finance professors John Griffin and Amin Shams wrote.
Ponzi scheme...
There are no institutions in (they would dump if they hadn't already), bagholders are complete gamblers and are just how to call them ... "not sophisticated" let's just say they have no business speculating. They won't sell.
But I mean... This should have some impact logically. Let's see what happens next.
"Unsophisticated" bagholders will hold even after it is proven btc was one big ponzi scheme, but will they all? It's hard to think that all these people would be stupid enough. 50% people have an IQ below 100 but 98% think they are above 100.
Price has to fall eventually. What if sure there are no new buyers but old ones keep "averaging" in this ponzi every paycheck? XD It's just so ridiculous.
Wash trading exchanges, trans-fee etc, might see this news as the signal to exit scam.
Well anyway it was important to update this post with that, let's see what happens next.
www.cnbc.com/2019/11...itcoin-to-20000.html
“Almost the entire price impact can be attributed to this one large player,” finance professors John Griffin and Amin Shams wrote.
Ponzi scheme...
There are no institutions in (they would dump if they hadn't already), bagholders are complete gamblers and are just how to call them ... "not sophisticated" let's just say they have no business speculating. They won't sell.
But I mean... This should have some impact logically. Let's see what happens next.
"Unsophisticated" bagholders will hold even after it is proven btc was one big ponzi scheme, but will they all? It's hard to think that all these people would be stupid enough. 50% people have an IQ below 100 but 98% think they are above 100.
Price has to fall eventually. What if sure there are no new buyers but old ones keep "averaging" in this ponzi every paycheck? XD It's just so ridiculous.
Wash trading exchanges, trans-fee etc, might see this news as the signal to exit scam.
Well anyway it was important to update this post with that, let's see what happens next.
www.cnbc.com/2019/11...itcoin-to-20000.html
The mathematical illiterates zero predispositions after seing something vaguely happen 3 months with a delta of 3 months 2-3 times all started swearing on their lives Bitcoin would explodes with consensus 2018. It failed once and they dropped it completely. I have not heard a word ONCE.
Textbook public lack of understanding of probabilities. The majority was born without the natural ability, hard to believe but ok let's accept it, not their fault, but it can be learned. Don't tell me they have not heard once in their lives not to trust their immediate instinct and probability basics.
Those are not honest mistakes. They CHOOSE to dream. They CHOOSE to make their minds based on annecdotes.
Now, the price has dropped about 25% yesterday.
Bitcoin has had many 25% drops followed by and ABC.
And a handful of eaxactly similar looking sharp drops followed by ABC.
Of course, on top of that we have the lower time frames ones, and elliot wave theory, and a sample size of MILLIONS of similar situation supporting us, as well as 0.786 "back to normal" retrace, as well as the Tether situation, as well as all the Bitcoin being sent from BFX to Coinbase at the moment, as well as the 8884 BTC that were sent to Coinbase 2 days ago, as well as now is an extension of a over 4.236 just like 2013, as well as market sentiment, as well as bubble theory based on a few dozen examples of accumulation => weak uptrend => strong uptrend => parabolic => Crash we made all these steps and what follows is bear market.
And many more reasons.
According to probabilities...
Bitcoin investors think "this time will be different" because "let me tell you the annecdote of this 1 time where something kinda similar happened" and "last time they said Bitcoin was dead and it went up".
I wonder what the best method is? Thorough examination of every aspect and use of very strong odds in each aspect, or "bah last time they said" "I got a good gut feeling".
Similar examples I can think of, that started like this, are:
- 1/3-midway in a bull market (maybe?)
- 2/3-midway in a bull market
- 1/3-midway in a bear market
- At the top of a bull market
- At the bottom of a bear market
Here the sample size is pretty low, but if we get a nice ABC we can probably trust what usually happens after an impulsive move and the top is an ABC (check sugar).
IF we go back up in an ABC, we can expect another price drop after that ABC.
IF we do not go up like this, then we will see.
According to sentiment it looks like we are close to the top, but this market is always irrational so...