How are you HODL'rs holding up? Are you buying? Getting a divorce lol... She'll be back in a year or two as we already know.
Here is my prediction on this run. No one has anticipated such a run as we have had and it has been difficult for many amazing analysts to keep a high % of correct analysis albeit, some are gaining notoriety as they had predicted bearish price action and have even labeled this the bear market. Yet, how do we define a crypto bear market? Well the most noted determining factor is about an 80% pullback in the price of Bitcoin and around 90% for most alts. Yet, here we are with only a 60% pullback on Bitcoin and most alts have already done the 90% retracement or more for the less fortunate coins.
So where does that leave us? In my humbled option I believe we have not completed this run and entered a bear market as most are assuming. I do hold weight to the ideals that each run will extend longer as more consumers enter the market and raise the overall market cap, along with the law of diminishing returns this is something we should all take into consideration. That said, If you just look at this run starting from the bottom of the 2018 Bear market and apply a simple Elliott Wave 1-5 you will see that we have completed waves 1-3 and are currently playing out an Extended Flat correction for wave 4. If this plays to be true, based on the correction of wave C in wave 4 the price can fall down to two different fib retracements of waves A&B, those targets being the 1.236 and the 1.618 fibs. Since we have already passed the 1.236 it is likely we retrace to the 1.618 before heading into another impulse wave and completing the 5th wave before we see the typical 80% pullback. It is important to also note that we are currently at the 200 weekly SMA which has previously held as the market bottom in every bitcoin retracement in history.
A lot of factors played into the fact that we have had a different run than your typical run we have either all experienced or studied on the charts. You'll hear many reasons, some require a tinfoil hat and others are the more obvious reasons.... Yet, if you ask me, it was due to the few bitcoin futures ETF's that were approved. If you want to further investigate this, go back to 2017 and put the first bitcoin futures product released on the CME on the date and price of BTC, then move further down the line and place each one that has been approved since and I bet you will start seeing the trend. You can use this information in the future by staying up on the products being released on crypto assets. Just a hunch but, if you see something that has had a nice run and is being approved for a futures product, You may want to consider looking for ways to make profits on the way down.
I hope you enjoyed the idea and information. If you have, let me know in the comments, ask questions, lets discuss... we are all in this together, lets play like a team should!
Have a green week!
SAVVY
Below I have a link for you to read more in depth about Elliot Wave's and the fibs related to them to better your understanding of the chart I have posted.
I hope with all of the doom and gloom this will provide some clarity and set your mind at ease... and remember, Sell the hype and buy when the streets are soaked in blood... Now is the opposite of the time to panic sell at a loss.
Moon boy theory. Looks to me like btc has just completed distribution phase and is in a mark down phase, followed by a lengthy accumulation phase. No quick recovery.
Savvythe1
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@tomaskurt, A theory based on detailed technical analysis would lack the definition of Moon Boy theory. Do you have a chart to provide details on your thoughts and areas where we will see the price action go? As to me, This is my plan until it proves to be different and as I stated in the post it is important to plan for both ways.
ro.goudreau
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There's still months and months left to the bear market, Bitcoin is going under 10K for sure.
Savvythe1
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@Ro.goudreau, One thing I know as a 4 year professional trader and someone who has been in markets for 15 year is that when people start calling for 100% for sure large bearish moves we are likely to go the other way.. Respectfully. The other thing I know for 100% fact is that my prediction nor yours should be held with 100% certainty. You plan with technical and fundamental analysis to gain a statistical edge against the market and other participants. With this analysis I have a plan B and a plan C. You are welcome to check out our F B Group Crypto Kinfolk and check our prior analysis. We proudly hold an 82.9% accuracy in our trade history and offer actual trade set ups there and our discord for alt coins. Come check us out and keep in mind that it is always smart to have a plan for both directions. You as an investor get to enjoy free analysis from certified CMT's who have spent countless hours studying, taking the losses while learning, paying for certifications and international licenses and come on these free platforms to help others grow as we know how difficult these markets can be as a beginner and as someone with experience.
ro.goudreau
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@Savvythe1, Lol, keep hoping, all markets will go down, Bitcoin is not different.
Savvythe1
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@Ro.goudreau, Re-read friend, there is no hope. It is a plan based on statistical analysis. I also have another plan if certain levels are broken as should you if the market goes up. I've drawn one up for you. BTC1 just filled the gap. Here is where I would expect the bounce.