I will be quick on this one and will just state the fact. The Bollinger Band Width (BBW) on Bitcoin, which measures the degree of volatility on the market is testing the lowest ever reading, going all the way back to March 2016! That is on the Monthly chart, in order to account for all three BTC cycles.
As you see every time BBW hit a low (December 2012 and March 2016), Bitcoin was trading within the 0.1 - 0.2 Fibonacci retracement level (bottom to top of cycle). Is it a coincidence that as the BBW is testing now the 2016 low, Bitcoin's price is again within the 0.1 - 0.2 Fibonacci? In fact it got rejected on the 0.1 mark last month.
Will the 0.2 Fib hold as it has during the previous two Cycles and initiate the much anticipated Bull Run? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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@N0RMAN, As I said to the charming fella above, I published this chart on reddit more than 24 hours ago. If you've seen it somewhere it is probably copied off of me.
JBizzle54life
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That’s Dave the Waves chart bro, probably need to acknowledge that, as in say chart and analysis from Dave the Wave. Just saying.
TradingShot
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@JBizzle54life, Dave the who? I published this chart on reddit more than 24 hours ago. If you've seen it somewhere it is probably copied off of me. Maybe this brave wave could give me some acknowledgement instead.
cosmicnexus
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Hey TS... I guess if you're buying the BLX this may be true RE volatility right now... however regards BTC/USD (1D) it's really not cuz a 21% move in less than a month really is somewhat volatile! On the 1M BTC/USD chart it's still got massive swings in the last year (and your BLX chart actually shows this also). It has settled down a bit this last week though. The BBW on a 1M chart is going to be rather deceptive IMHO because BBW is so relative to the time frame. In other words, what it will show as lower volatility on a 1M chart may be a far cry from what the current situation actually is.
I do agree for other reasons though that it appears we are building towards another possible rally higher. If BTC can close over the +0.236 Fib line around 10,443 sometime here soon it will be a further indicator of strength and a continuation of a bullish trend. If it stalls there then it might take a wander down into the -0.236 area.
TradingShot
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@cosmicnexus, Hey Nex. Yes of course there is a big difference between 1D and 1M. For long-term investors even 1D can hide a lot of 'noise' like news that tend to create volatility and somewhat diverge the price from the actual cyclical trend. Of course small dips on 1M that may be necessary to confirm a bullish pattern and pave the way for a new rally, can be very substantial on the 1D chart. The 0.2 Fib for example currently sits at $8000!
Please behave and include the source!