This is not financial advice.
All of the information I have to show is displayed on the chart. For some clarification to what I'm pointing my finger at - There is an odd coincidence between Peaks 1-2 and Peaks 3-4 that I raise an eyebrow too. They were both 32 weeks apart and had almost exactly half the % gain in comparison to each other. That's odd enough on its own, but to top it off they're both aligned with the halvings pretty perfectly.
Now if this were to repeat it would need to happen quickly, and most of the bullish scenarios would be drastically underestimating how Bitcoin is about to move. I am by no means claiming this is certainly going to happen though. I'm just looking at what the chart would imply is going to happen if history repeated. Even for BTC it's a stretch to think it would move that high that fast. We would see it at roughly $17-$18k by February 9th to match the 32 week bar and 112% - 56% - 28% difference.
I am keeping it in the cards regardless of my optimistic or pessimistic outlooks. I want to see us a week or two past that 32 week mark before I'd pull it.
All of the information I have to show is displayed on the chart. For some clarification to what I'm pointing my finger at - There is an odd coincidence between Peaks 1-2 and Peaks 3-4 that I raise an eyebrow too. They were both 32 weeks apart and had almost exactly half the % gain in comparison to each other. That's odd enough on its own, but to top it off they're both aligned with the halvings pretty perfectly.
Now if this were to repeat it would need to happen quickly, and most of the bullish scenarios would be drastically underestimating how Bitcoin is about to move. I am by no means claiming this is certainly going to happen though. I'm just looking at what the chart would imply is going to happen if history repeated. Even for BTC it's a stretch to think it would move that high that fast. We would see it at roughly $17-$18k by February 9th to match the 32 week bar and 112% - 56% - 28% difference.
I am keeping it in the cards regardless of my optimistic or pessimistic outlooks. I want to see us a week or two past that 32 week mark before I'd pull it.
IMO we are beginning to form peak 6 now. I don't know how long it'll actually take or where it stops but its just too perfectly aligned with the last two cycles. The last two sets of peaks had 32 weeks in-between them, but it will most likely take longer. Regardless, I think it's just a matter of 'are we getting some kind of notable Peak?' In which we can call Peak 6. Ideally this involves a weekly trend change. Anything over $14k before the halving and I'd be cemented in the idea we're once again repeating history.
In this case that we do get a peak 6. Afterward we can expect some consolidation. The current pattern is 7-10 weeks following peak 6 and in the area of 40% down. This consolidation would be the last good time to make a long term buy order. It should lead us into an all out bull market. From the low of that 7-10 week consolidation to the coming ATH it has previously taken about a year to a year & 1/2. I'm still working out my best estimates for an ATH, but I'll post it here when I do.