First off I want to say, don't take this as gospel. This is a chart to follow bitcoin and plot it's path using math and it's trend patterns to date.
The time sequences from a factor of 1.4, 1.5 and 1.6 are what the math shows me
1.4 Multiple being the trend from establishment (support) to trend end 1.44 Multiple is the breakthrough to the trend end
1.5 Multiple is the breakthrough to peak (Shaded area)
You follow chart this until it's voided
1.6 Multiple is from peak to peak (Long Green arrow) This math is using the second peak in November 2021
1.3 is the multiple using the first peak in April 2021 (shorter green line), which puts the second parabola and final top of the trend in July of 2031.
History might not repeat exactly but it does seem to follow the patterns fairly closely. Using math sequences we might be able to figure out approximate moves fairly closely.
For this chart to have present or very near timeline validity, the next few bars should push up against the blue line as resistance just as it did on the red line in 2014. So, Let's wait and see into December to see what happens.
The blue and red regression trend shows a similar pattern with three waves down until the final plunge of the trend line break through.
If accurate, this chart can help you navigate through the Bitcoin timeline, as it can help you see what stage it is in, or at least to get a better grasp of the moves.
Very thoughtful post. Has me pondering. Thanks for sharing. My only thoughts are whether this is consistent with halving cycles, and whether the final top idea will hold true. So long as Bitcoin becomes ever scarcer and the dollar ever less scarce, it's hard to imagine a final top of Bitcoin priced in dollars. There would be some major catalyst to cause this. While no one knows the future for certain, I remain convinced that Bitcoin will continue its logistic growth into perpetuity.
prefabsprout
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@spy_master, right. we arent ultimately acquiring crypto to sell it for dollars, we are acquiring it to spend it as crypto. at least that's the idea.
@spy_master, Very good response, I'm not claiming this as gospel, It's a long term chart view of historical comparisons and how they seem to repeat with longer time intervals and diminished returns. I do think the halvings will have less and less influence as time goes on. Ultimately we want bitcoin used as digital cash, we are a ways away from that as it takes educating the masses.
SwallowPremium
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It can give us a good profit once the trade activates!!!
WeAreSat0shi
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It has an validity, there shoild be a run up coming for a few bars and push against the okd trend as resistance. Ultimately the initial big move out of the bear market should come after april. lets see