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BTCUSD: If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario

BNC:BLX   BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin
Part 5: If Bitcoin Repeats History?

I remind you of July 2017 descending triangle that completely overshot the measured target by around 12%. This is for all the traders who claim descending triangles never break to the downside in bull markets at the top of the trend. Bare in mind this was at the top of a full-blown bull market, after reaching a new ATH and 3.2x from April 2017 low. This was otherwise half way through the 2017 bull market from a 2016 low of $150, so roughly 20x. This is yet another example in the repeating Bitcoin history series to show how they do break to the downside, especially after parabolic bull markets.

The extrapolated breakdown comes to a low of $5,350 (-43%) with a measured target on the Daily descending triangle of $6,875 (-27%). Note this is different to the Weekly descending triangle measured target of $6,410 (-32% see here), and is therefore dependent on BTC breaking out of the Weekly descending triangle to the upside, while remaining within the Daily triangle, which isn't a lot to ask for.

If Bitcoin Repeats History?

2012: Breakdown to $6,415 with 1 year consolidation (Part 4)
2014: Breakdown to $2,500 with 1.5 years consolidation (Part 3)
2017: Breakdown to $5,350 with 2 months consolidation (Part 2)
2018: Breakdown to $5,050 with 6 months consolidation (Part 1)
2019: Measured move to $6,410 to $6,875 (Part 2 & 5)

That's a range between $2,500 and $6,875, with anywhere between 2-18 months of consolidation.
Conclusion: Anything could happen. Look for clues.

If Bitcoin Repeats History Series

Part 1: Descending Triangle Looking Similar To 2018


Part 2: Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown


Part 3: A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low


Part 4: If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Extrapolating 2012 Breakdown

Sep 17
Comment: Correction: Part 4 is "If 2012 Descending Triangle Repeats? Extrapolating The Breakdown"
Sep 28
Comment: Part 6: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Monthly TD Sequential Red 1

Oct 09
Comment: Part 7: Another Bearish Indicator: 200 EMA & MA Bearcross

Oct 13
Comment: Part 8: Bitcoin's Full Moon Reversal 6 Month Pattern

Oct 21
Comment: Part 9: TD Sequential 9 Next Week To Decide Direction?

Oct 27
Comment: Part 10: Extrapolating the 50 & 200 Day MA bear crosses

Nov 24
Trade closed: target reached: Breakdown target of $6875 achieved.
Have not seen too many people with this thought. I completely agree. Between fundamentals and the charts it really seems we need a solid dump before continuing the bull run. So many times we had bull dumps before continuing to run parabolic. Many people think that if we dump to 6 -7k that is indication that we are not in a bull run, where as IMO that would be healthy and provide more momentum for a bigger breakout. Fake outs are common for bitcoin and market manipulation is higher than ever. Bakkt is just another reason to expect something crazy, but certainly not something to wipe genesis fundamentals from the table even with a huge dump. Nice details!
+1 Reply
@jlondonr, Well said, as long as the 200 Week MA is still rising, and the price is still above it, targeting these levels is still targeting a long-term bullish price still. Like $3,200 all over again.
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I think you're right
+1 Reply
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