At the very beginning of 2018 we began covering Bitcoin price analysis on our YouTube channel. My approach to accumulation is Dollar Cost Averaging ( DCA ). I am a very big believer in the mental aspect of accumulation. This means that if I am utilizing DCA because I am extremely long on Bitcoin , I would like to DCA when the price is down - at least for short term. It is the essence of "Buy The Dip". It does create great trading potential, however I do not Buy The Dip because I want to trade.
There are 5 things that I use in technical analysis in finding the best possible area to accumulate in the short term. They are:
1. Key support & resistance areas found within the .618 - .786 channel on Fibonacci Retracement 2. Breakout targets on both the downside & upside utilizing traditional patterns like triangles and wedges 3. The confluence of 50EMA & 200EMA on daily charts with the above 2 indicators 4. The combination of slower momentum oscillators & faster moving - - i.e. RSI & Stoch RSI 5. Lastly - which some disagree with - is the historical data that we have on Bitcoin in terms of the flow and movements of BTC .
For the purpose of transparency, throughout the year I did not think that BTC would break below 5k. This is also why I mentioned on videos throughout the year that $3,500 - $5,500 area is an extremely great price to accumulate in my opinion.
The purpose of explaining all of this is because it is the foundation of what you see on the screen.
Long term there are some more things that play into the movement of Bitcoin:
Bitcoin thus far as followed a pattern of 3 Events:
1. Halving - The amount of brand new mined BTC is cut in half for miners. Also, the price earned for mining 1 BTC is also cut in half. 2. All Time High - 1 Year after the halving you see BTC reaching a new ATH 3. After ATH is reached, you see a consolidation and sell-off in BTC price. This is the correction phase.
Each cycle is highlighted on the chart. Both past and SPECULATIVE present. You will see a steady decrease in % gains each cycle. This is normal.
Important to note: You will also see the key area of .786 on the Fibonacci retracement (red lines) plays a crucial role in defining the bottom range.
None of this takes into account the synergistic position and momentum within the weekly RSI
Awesome! How do you zoom out on your graphs like this? What changes need to be adjusted to do so?
lordhavemercy1337
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another thing i noticed: last two ath were in dec. dec 2013, 2017, 2021? thats what my guess is
cheers
ultranova
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Sweet - I'm gonna look back at this and be like see? It was right there, all you had to do was just believe!
SwallowPremium
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What a great idea! It remains to wait for the price to fix, and we can enter the position)
TVcoin
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@cryptocapitalventure you should publish all charts on here. I’ve been following all YouTube vids, but really like to draw my lines next to your analysis! Keep on going :)
AlanLevitt
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No disagreement on the logarithmic regression bands, but why are you drawing the end of this cycle @May 2021 @90k?
You're right that there's going to be two peaks, but what's justifying the exact timings?
Patralis
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This aged like fine wine.
Crypto-Quantum-Fox
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Nailed it
Karlos95
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100k here we come
CryptoEngineering
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We will see how the month ends in 2 days. Good luck on your trade!