It's been a while since we looked at Bitcoin (BLX) on the monthly time frame, here we have some type of action never seen before for Bitcoin.
Starting August 2018, Bitcoin went negative for six (6) months straight, turning green only on February 2019.
March 2019 lead to Bitcoin breaking above EMA50 on the monthly time frame and is now trading shy above EMA10.
Bitcoin hasn't been above EMA10 on the monthly since Apr-Jul 2018. This is the first time in almost a year that Bitcoin is trading above this moving average, will it remain above it or go below?
The monthly chart looks pretty basic, it looks like a change of trend is starting to take place... A close above EMA10 with good volume can indicate that Bitcoin can continue growing more, but if instead if falls and closes below EMA10, a full retrace can start that can last several months.
Let's take a look at the indicators now:
MACD
The MACD histogram shows that the bottom is in, while the MACD line and signal are pointing to a long consolidation period before additional growth.
RSI
The RSI is now back on the bullish side after hitting an all-time low. There is plenty of room for a retrace and sideways action before massive growth.
Overall the view is good but there is one huge warning which negates the EMA10 challenge... There is no volume.
You would expect significant volume when challenging this type of resistance yet there isn't much. This goes in favor of a correction after one last potential jump/mini-jump.
This update goes in combination with the following analysis shared earlier today:
Bitcoin Still Trading Above EMA300, What Happens Next?
HI @alanmasters Thanks for all your charts and insights. To give you my idea, I think we will see a continued push to $5800-$6000 in the next week, then by the end of the Monthly candle close we will be back under the EMA10 at roughly $5000. In May we will continue to consolidate down to $4,000, setting a higher low. June-July will take us through $6,000 on the way to $8,000; August into September will consolidate again down to the $5500-$6000 range before one last push to $10,000+ by end of year. I think this will confirm the 5 wave impulse out of the Bear Market and we'll start to see lots of bullish momentum into 2020! What do you think?
AlanSantana
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@qsboarder747, That's a great analysis. I believe you have a solid view, we will see how it goes.
pkb6698
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I think the current is similar to the bottom of 2015. What do you think? Please give me a advice.