I took a closer look at the difference between the BLX/M1 chart and the standard BLX one.
I specifically looked at the times the price of BTC definitively crossed its previous ath. The difference between those charts in previous bull runs is minimal. In terms of time difference its 7d and 28d respectively and an about 30% to 40% difference. BUT this time around we are actually still not at the actual ath (meaning in the M1 adjusted chart) while the classic BTC/USD price is way past its all time high. More than 300% of the USD gains are kinda fake. We would need to hit around 100k $ to have a true ath.
Previously I estimated the BTC price to top out at between 200k-280k, but if you take all that into account I could see BTC go to 350k$ (even when they stopped printing fiat today which they aren't).
@kramegruts hey👋...have to be honest didnt expect it to go that way..but I guess noone really did. I would say if we look at this chart we approx. topped out where the local 2019 top was, after that local top we retraced down about 50%, then retraced up 50% to the 0.618 fib level and than broke down approx. 70% (disgregarding pandemic crash) and broke the support. It would suggest that if we go up to 50k again but dont break, again break support at 30k also, it we would go down around the 20k level. But if we manage to break above 50k and hold there I think we are in for a wild ride up since we spent so much time suppressed. And regarding the money supply specifically, they announced they will start changing their balance sheet and rates earliest 2023, so that wont impact btc negatively this run. hope that helps, I'm still holding i just think the possible downside at this point with the sentiment beeing as bearish as it is is limited. just my opinion. good luck mate✌
kramegruts
⋅
Any thoughts on this now given the context of currently going on in the markets?
I would say if we look at this chart we approx. topped out where the local 2019 top was, after that local top we retraced down about 50%, then retraced up 50% to the 0.618 fib level and than broke down approx. 70% (disgregarding pandemic crash) and broke the support. It would suggest that if we go up to 50k again but dont break, again break support at 30k also, it we would go down around the 20k level. But if we manage to break above 50k and hold there I think we are in for a wild ride up since we spent so much time suppressed. And regarding the money supply specifically, they announced they will start changing their balance sheet and rates earliest 2023, so that wont impact btc negatively this run.
hope that helps, I'm still holding i just think the possible downside at this point with the sentiment beeing as bearish as it is is limited. just my opinion. good luck mate✌