It take generally take 365-426days to find the bottom (I made a video about)
The 2014 bear market took 426days & and the 2018 bear market took 426days. This give an average of 395days.
The toughest part comes down to breaking the previous all time.
The 2014 bear market took 1188days to get a M candle close above the previous ATH & and the 2018 bear market took 1066days to get a M candle close above previous ATH. This gives an average of 1127days or 3.1YEARS.
A bull should only focus on one part: THE BOTTOM. This means, once bears get a confirmation of a cycle peak, they can stay bearish for 365-426days on the macro view.
Or if bull want to incorporate some indicators, they will have to flip bull at the retest of the M50ma/M50ema
Note: The white line is the M50ma, and no single candle has opened and closed below the 50ma
An importance key to note is that every bear market will end with a capitulation: we know all capitulation starts once bears breakout below the M21ema. (yellow line)
To summarize it.
To facilitate it for bulls to monitor a bear market progression and catch the bottom with 95% confidence level:
1- Breakout below M21ema
2-Avg 365-395days (or 12-13M)of a downtrend from previous cycle peak
3-Retest of the M50ma\ema
If all three conditions are met, then Moon Time, No Question Aske
The 2014 bear market took 426days & and the 2018 bear market took 426days. This give an average of 395days.
The toughest part comes down to breaking the previous all time.
The 2014 bear market took 1188days to get a M candle close above the previous ATH & and the 2018 bear market took 1066days to get a M candle close above previous ATH. This gives an average of 1127days or 3.1YEARS.
A bull should only focus on one part: THE BOTTOM. This means, once bears get a confirmation of a cycle peak, they can stay bearish for 365-426days on the macro view.
Or if bull want to incorporate some indicators, they will have to flip bull at the retest of the M50ma/M50ema
Note: The white line is the M50ma, and no single candle has opened and closed below the 50ma
An importance key to note is that every bear market will end with a capitulation: we know all capitulation starts once bears breakout below the M21ema. (yellow line)
To summarize it.
To facilitate it for bulls to monitor a bear market progression and catch the bottom with 95% confidence level:
1- Breakout below M21ema
2-Avg 365-395days (or 12-13M)of a downtrend from previous cycle peak
3-Retest of the M50ma\ema
If all three conditions are met, then Moon Time, No Question Aske
