This is a quick reflection on Bitcoin's Fibonacci Channel's within its long term parabolic growth curve.
In the two previous cycles, the price touched the -0.382 Fibonacci retracement level before it rebounded. This marked the end of that market's bear cycle and that bottom gave way to the new bull cycle.
This time it hasn't done that (price touching the -0.382 Fib) so far. Maybe this is an indication that "this time it's different". Maybe it is something to be cautious with and reserve some capital for buying lower.
Maybe we will eventually touch this line much later on by trading sideways. In this scenario, Bitcoin's growth will delayed considerably to what most of us (including me) think but of course will not stop. After all the parabolic curve pattern will eventually turn asymptotic at some point in time. This means that the market cycles will last longer (longer bear markets and bull markets), which would in turn imply that BTC has reached the point of maturity and widespread adoption and dominance. The trend after that would be unknown (certainly not parabolic) but we are still many years before that happens.
Note how the angle of each Fibonacci Channel decreases in time (54, 27, 16, ...) making the slope decelerating, confirming the notion of the asymptotic behavior.
What is your opinion on that matter that few seem to talk about? Do you think that the asymptotic dynamics have already started affecting BTC and may delay its growth? As always all opinions are welcome on the comments section!
@SpartaBTC, If it touched the red line it will be a great buy opportunity indeed.
SpartaBTC
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@TradingShot, Yes, you're right, the main thing is not to go below the red line.
TradingShot
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@SpartaBTC, Even if it does, the long term uptrend isn't negated. The dangerous turn is to break 3K. This is were the fundamental idea of a parabolic rise will be invalidated. But I find no reason for this to happen.
Poukitoun
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@SpartaBTC, lol, your top white line is not even parallel to the other lines! If you drew them properly BTC would be on top of that channel!! Ps: don’t draw lines to suit your storyline ;)
SpartaBTC
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2014))
TheNotoriousBig
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TradingShot
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@TheNotoriousBig, It will take a full negative news reversal to offset the current strong fundamentals and hit 1000. Seems unrealistic at the moment. The sooner we realize that BTC has bottomed the greater return we will have in 1-2 years time.