BITCOIN Fibonacci alignment shows a $200000 Cycle Top!

Sounds far fetched but then again Bitcoin has shown us that every Top seemed unthinkable two years before it happened. This study is based solely on the Fibonacci retracement / extension structures and provide a key methodology on how to determine Cyclical Tops.

I have divided BTC's life-span into two Classes: Cycle 1 + Cycle 2 and Cycle A, B, C and D.

** Cycle 1 & 2 **
Cycle's 1 & 2 are based on the notion that BTC is running on extended Cycles than what most people think. That suggests that we are currently on Cycle 2 that hasn't made a Top yet. Each Cycle's bottom is on the 1.0 Fib, the 0.0 Fib is placed on the Cycle's first high, with the 0.382 Fib being on (or close enough) to the low after the first high. Using the -0.5 Fib extension, we have the Cycle's Top. So since Cycle 1 hasn't made a Top yet, but has clearly had its first High, applying the -0.5 Fib on it, gives us a Cycle Top marginally above $200000.

** Cycle A, B, C & D **
Cycle's A through D are based on the more traditional notion that BTC has had three Cycles so far and we are currently on the fourth. Those Cycles (with the exception of A) are marked by the Halving events, which is the differentiator. Each Cycle's pre-Halving bottom is on the 1.0 Fib, the 0.0 Fib is placed on the Cycle's pre-Halving High, with the 0.382 Fib being the level that offers support after the Halving. Using the -2.15 Fib extension, we have the Cycle's Top (again with the exception of A which has only had a Bull Phase and no Halving so this why the -2.15 Fib falls out of the model). So since Cycle D hasn't made a Top yet, but is past its Halving, applying the -2.15 Fib on it, gives us a Cycle Top well above $300000.

** Conclusion **
So combining the two principles, which so far has been remarkably consistent throughout Bitcoin's life span, we get a zone for the next Cyclical Top within $200000 - 300000! Does that sound too far fetched or you will be trusting the model and hold? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!


P.S. For those who recognize the analysis, this is a repost of the idea below which I published on September 30 and got deleted. I am publishing it again in order to be used for future reference reasons:


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