Sounds far fetched but then again Bitcoin has shown us that every Top seemed unthinkable two years before it happened. This study is based solely on the Fibonacci retracement / extension structures and provide a key methodology on how to determine Cyclical Tops.
I have divided BTC's life-span into two Classes: Cycle 1 + Cycle 2 and Cycle A, B, C and D.
** Cycle 1 & 2 ** Cycle's 1 & 2 are based on the notion that BTC is running on extended Cycles than what most people think. That suggests that we are currently on Cycle 2 that hasn't made a Top yet. Each Cycle's bottom is on the 1.0 Fib, the 0.0 Fib is placed on the Cycle's first high, with the 0.382 Fib being on (or close enough) to the low after the first high. Using the -0.5 Fib extension, we have the Cycle's Top. So since Cycle 1 hasn't made a Top yet, but has clearly had its first High, applying the -0.5 Fib on it, gives us a Cycle Top marginally above $200000.
** Cycle A, B, C & D ** Cycle's A through D are based on the more traditional notion that BTC has had three Cycles so far and we are currently on the fourth. Those Cycles (with the exception of A) are marked by the Halving events, which is the differentiator. Each Cycle's pre-Halving bottom is on the 1.0 Fib, the 0.0 Fib is placed on the Cycle's pre-Halving High, with the 0.382 Fib being the level that offers support after the Halving. Using the -2.15 Fib extension, we have the Cycle's Top (again with the exception of A which has only had a Bull Phase and no Halving so this why the -2.15 Fib falls out of the model). So since Cycle D hasn't made a Top yet, but is past its Halving, applying the -2.15 Fib on it, gives us a Cycle Top well above $300000.
** Conclusion ** So combining the two principles, which so far has been remarkably consistent throughout Bitcoin's life span, we get a zone for the next Cyclical Top within $200000 - 300000! Does that sound too far fetched or you will be trusting the model and hold? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
P.S. For those who recognize the analysis, this is a repost of the idea below which I published on September 30 and got deleted. I am publishing it again in order to be used for future reference reasons:
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Beautiful, thank you. This model feels right. Top mid '22. Also expecting to go towards 8000 range, but this is also consistent with the model.
TradingShot
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@spazioetempo, Thanks Spazio. As for the timing, late '22 early '23 seems just about right to me. What do you make of the following study?
EZ89
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@TradingShot, Yes, indeed! Late '22, early '23 as you have calculated feels just right.
And I am currently experimenting with crazy Fib circles (remember I'm a sculptor) to predict the move downwards.
Maybe interesting, this is from the 20'ies: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unique_Forms_of_Continuity_in_Space
TradingShot
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@spazioetempo, That is actually a great tool. Thanks for bringing this up.
patrickfx
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lol how many times are u gonna repost this nonsense. u didnt predict the crash in march ;) also y'all predicted 20k end 2020, still not happening haha
TradingShot
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@patrickfx, Thank you for the kind attitude towards life. No I didn't predict the crash in March, as my superpowers of predicting pandemics that come every 100 years failed me. But thank you for bringing that up and reminding me that there are way more constructive things to do with my 2 minutes than replying to negative people on trading forums. All the best to you and I am very sure I will be seeing your, great and full of your colorful childhood memories, comments around a lot.
theellk
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@patrickfx, Patrick, I noticed you didnt predict the crash in March either. In fact, you havent presented any work to be reviewed, you appear to be offering nothing but negativity.
A very bizarre and unnecessary comment from a bystander, who would rather belittle others achievments from the sidelines than learn and share and be involved in intellectual discussion.
Real beta.
TradingShot
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@theellk, Well said. Fortunately people like him are the minority on TradingView. Most share their ideas and exchange comments in a constructive manner.
patrickfx
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@theellk, oh boy, kindergarten is open. ofcourse i didnt predict it, thats why i dont make these biased silly non argumented posts! but HE DOES so he can expect some disagreement, thats life. that ''fib'' and ''s2f'' already failed many times so no one will trade on it
theellk
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@patrickfx, Then I would suggest your time would be better spent counter trading him, than posting comments with no real substance under his charts.