DON'T MISS! Proof Bitcoin/Crypto Nowhere Near Bottom! READ ALL!
Don't lose sight of the BIG BEARISH picture! So many people are calling the bottom right now, but the big picture analysis says that the bottom is NOT in.
BEARISH SIGNALS FROM THE MACD:
On the left and right, we have two different weekly Bitcoin charts. Each chart encompasses the entire recorded history of Bitcoin. Looking at the chart on the left, you can see that there are four vertical pink trendlines. Each one of those trendlines corresponds to a point on the MACD, where the signal line dropped below the zero line. As you can see, those signals produced 65-70% declines in the past. BTC just broke down below the weekly zero line a few weeks ago. So, based on the previous examples, we should expect a 65-70% decline from the point of the signal. That would put price somewhere in the mid to high 2000s.
BEARISH SIGNALS FROM THE RSI:
If we look at the weekly RSI on the bottom of the chart on the left, you can see that it's confirming that Bitcoin is in a clear bear market. You can see that when the RSI is above the 51 region, price is in a bull market. However, when the weekly RSI is below the 51 region, it corresponds to a bear market in price. So, the weekly RSI is signaling that Bitcoin remains in a bear market correction right now.
ELLIOTT WAVE BASIC OVERVIEW:
If we look at the chart on the right, we can see that BTC printed a massive five wave impulse. That five wave impulse began in 2010 and ended in 2017. Since then, BTC has been in a classic ABC correction. Now, there are some people out there who may disagree with the wave count, but the Gaussian Channel says otherwise. You can see that the wave counts are perfectly recorded in the Gaussian Channel, proving that we're currently in a series of corrective waves. Looking at the Gaussian Channel, you can see that there is a green up wave (wave 1) followed by a red wave (wave 2) followed by a green wave (wave 3) followed by a red wave (wave 4) followed by a green wave (wave 5). Then, we had the first corrective A wave, which was a red wave on the Gaussian Channel. Currently, we are in a green wave on the Gaussian Channel, which corresponds to the B wave of the ABC correction. However, the B wave has already completed, and we are currently in the C wave. You can see that the wave confirmation is delayed on the Gaussian Channel, but we can tell by the price action that the B wave has completed itself. So, that indicates that price will eventually complete this C wave. If it is a "flat" C wave, we can expect it to complete itself somewhere near the 3000 range. That is actually an interesting scenario, because it would put BTC right on the rising blue arch, WHICH IT NEVER TOUCHED! If you recall, I said so many times in the past that we were not in a true long-term bull market, because BTC never tested that rising blue arch. Now, there is a chance that the C wave is NOT going to be a "flat" C wave. In that scenario, I think we could see BTC fall to the 1200 range. In the worst case scenario, it could find support somewhere in wave 3, which would be between 1200 and 220.
ELLIOT WAVE FACTS AND COMPARISONS TO BITCOIN:
• The "Guideline of Equality" states that wave 5 is nearly equal to the height of wave 1. On the log chart to the right, we can see that is true.
• The "Guideline of Alternation within an Impulse" states that the forms for Wave 2 and Wave 4 will alternate. If Wave 2 is a sharp style of correction, Wave 4 will be a sideways style of correction. If Wave 2 is sideways, Wave 4 will be sharp. We can see that wave 2 was sharp and wave 4 was more sideways than wave 2. So, this is also true.
• This is HUGELY important, so pay attention! The "Guideline of Channeling" is a technique to project the potential end of waves within impulses. Although channeling can be used for corrective waves, it really boils down to the application of TRENDLINES and doesn't have any hard tendencies for corrective applications. As for impulse waves, Elliott noticed that channel lines often mark their boundaries with sometimes DRAMATIC PRECISION. That explains why BTC has respected the rising blue arc for it's entire existence! That blue arc IS the channel that Elliott described, expressed here in Bitcoin. What's important to understand, is that channeling is only really valid on the five wave impulse. Therefore, the channel could easily be broken to the downside in this ABC correction, and that would put BTC below 3000. So, the guideline of channeling also applies and is true to Bitcoin's historic Elliott Waves.
• The "Guideline of Scale" is a technique of looking at the market and that is often applied when creating channel projections. It simply states that one should use both an arithmetic scale chart and a log scale chart when looking at Elliott Waves. Clearly, that is true to this analysis of Bitcoin's Elliott Waves.
• About half of the first waves seen are part of the "basing process" and tend to be heavily corrected by Wave 2. In the case of Bitcoin, wave 2 corrected nearly 94% of wave 1, so that is true.
• Third waves tend to be strong and broad. They are typically unmistakable, as confidence in the direction of the new trend is clearly evident. Wave 3 usually generates the most volume and price movement. We can see that wave 3 was very strong and very broad. More importantly, we can see that wave 3 produced heavy volume and "the most price movement." Volume actually peaked during wave 4, but it was still very high during periods of wave 3. Also, wave 3 rose around 55,000%, which was the most powerful rise. So, these EW facts are also true.
• Fourth waves can be predictable in both depth and form because of the "guideline of alternation." They tend to differ with the previous wave 2 of the same degree. They often trend sideways, building a base for the final wave 5 to spring from. Looking at the chart, we can see that alternation did occur between waves 2 and 4. Wave 4 was much more subdued and sideways than wave 2, so that is also true.
• Fifth waves tend to be less dynamic and display slower speed of price change than the previous waves. They will usually be accompanied by lesser volume. We can see that is also true for BTC's fifth wave. it was a slow and steady rise, until the parabolic point at the end. Also, the volume of wave 5 produced lower peaks over time. So, that is also true to the EW standards.
INFO ON THE ABC CORRECTION:
• During Wave A, the public is convinced that this is just a correction of the previous trend and will rush in to capitalize on it, despite any technically damaging signals. This sets things up for the next wave to follow. That was clearly true, both in general sentiment in the crypto community and the following B wave.
• Wave B catches people in the wrong direction. It performs the task of enticing the suckers to jump into the market. This is where bear or bull traps happen. As a general rule, B Waves tend to show lower volume. We can see that the rise from 3150 to 13800 was on very low volume, so that clearly respects the EW standards. In time, it will likely be viewed as a great "sucker's rally."
• We are currently in wave C. Wave C tends to break the illusions of Wave A and Wave B. In a declining market, it can be devastating and fear takes over with broad participation. Wave c is nowhere near completion. If wave C is a flat, it would bottom around 3000. If it is a zig-zag, it could fall to 1200 or even below 1000. So, now you know what to expect.
VOLUME:
If we look at the volume on the chart on the right, you can see that it has been falling since 2015, while price has been rising. Rising price with falling volume is bearish, and (to the naysayers) that is a fact of technical analysis. Since that volume pattern has been playing out for nearly five years, it is definitely a longer-term bearish indicator. So, that also corresponds with the fact that we are in an ABC corrective wave. It also corresponds with the expectation of a 65-70% fall after the weekly MACD crossed below the zero line. It also corresponds with the fact that the weekly RSI is indicating that we are in a bear market.
NETWORK VALUE TO TRANSACTIONS (NVT):
Looking at the NVT (top indicator on the right chart) we can see that it is close to breaking a rising red trendline support. If that happens, I think it will signal a more powerful expansion lower. Also, the NVT is seeing overhead resistance from the signal line.
SMI INDICATOR:
The bottom indicator on the chart to the right is the SMI indicator. You can see that wave 2, wave 4, and corrective wave A all bottomed on the blue lateral trendline on the SMII. So, this indicator could show the bottom of the C wave as well. I will be watching this indicator, with others, to find the bottom of the C wave. Clearly, there is more room on the downside, and we are nowhere near bottom.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
BEARISH SIGNALS FROM THE MACD:
On the left and right, we have two different weekly Bitcoin charts. Each chart encompasses the entire recorded history of Bitcoin. Looking at the chart on the left, you can see that there are four vertical pink trendlines. Each one of those trendlines corresponds to a point on the MACD, where the signal line dropped below the zero line. As you can see, those signals produced 65-70% declines in the past. BTC just broke down below the weekly zero line a few weeks ago. So, based on the previous examples, we should expect a 65-70% decline from the point of the signal. That would put price somewhere in the mid to high 2000s.
BEARISH SIGNALS FROM THE RSI:
If we look at the weekly RSI on the bottom of the chart on the left, you can see that it's confirming that Bitcoin is in a clear bear market. You can see that when the RSI is above the 51 region, price is in a bull market. However, when the weekly RSI is below the 51 region, it corresponds to a bear market in price. So, the weekly RSI is signaling that Bitcoin remains in a bear market correction right now.
ELLIOTT WAVE BASIC OVERVIEW:
If we look at the chart on the right, we can see that BTC printed a massive five wave impulse. That five wave impulse began in 2010 and ended in 2017. Since then, BTC has been in a classic ABC correction. Now, there are some people out there who may disagree with the wave count, but the Gaussian Channel says otherwise. You can see that the wave counts are perfectly recorded in the Gaussian Channel, proving that we're currently in a series of corrective waves. Looking at the Gaussian Channel, you can see that there is a green up wave (wave 1) followed by a red wave (wave 2) followed by a green wave (wave 3) followed by a red wave (wave 4) followed by a green wave (wave 5). Then, we had the first corrective A wave, which was a red wave on the Gaussian Channel. Currently, we are in a green wave on the Gaussian Channel, which corresponds to the B wave of the ABC correction. However, the B wave has already completed, and we are currently in the C wave. You can see that the wave confirmation is delayed on the Gaussian Channel, but we can tell by the price action that the B wave has completed itself. So, that indicates that price will eventually complete this C wave. If it is a "flat" C wave, we can expect it to complete itself somewhere near the 3000 range. That is actually an interesting scenario, because it would put BTC right on the rising blue arch, WHICH IT NEVER TOUCHED! If you recall, I said so many times in the past that we were not in a true long-term bull market, because BTC never tested that rising blue arch. Now, there is a chance that the C wave is NOT going to be a "flat" C wave. In that scenario, I think we could see BTC fall to the 1200 range. In the worst case scenario, it could find support somewhere in wave 3, which would be between 1200 and 220.
ELLIOT WAVE FACTS AND COMPARISONS TO BITCOIN:
• The "Guideline of Equality" states that wave 5 is nearly equal to the height of wave 1. On the log chart to the right, we can see that is true.
• The "Guideline of Alternation within an Impulse" states that the forms for Wave 2 and Wave 4 will alternate. If Wave 2 is a sharp style of correction, Wave 4 will be a sideways style of correction. If Wave 2 is sideways, Wave 4 will be sharp. We can see that wave 2 was sharp and wave 4 was more sideways than wave 2. So, this is also true.
• This is HUGELY important, so pay attention! The "Guideline of Channeling" is a technique to project the potential end of waves within impulses. Although channeling can be used for corrective waves, it really boils down to the application of TRENDLINES and doesn't have any hard tendencies for corrective applications. As for impulse waves, Elliott noticed that channel lines often mark their boundaries with sometimes DRAMATIC PRECISION. That explains why BTC has respected the rising blue arc for it's entire existence! That blue arc IS the channel that Elliott described, expressed here in Bitcoin. What's important to understand, is that channeling is only really valid on the five wave impulse. Therefore, the channel could easily be broken to the downside in this ABC correction, and that would put BTC below 3000. So, the guideline of channeling also applies and is true to Bitcoin's historic Elliott Waves.
• The "Guideline of Scale" is a technique of looking at the market and that is often applied when creating channel projections. It simply states that one should use both an arithmetic scale chart and a log scale chart when looking at Elliott Waves. Clearly, that is true to this analysis of Bitcoin's Elliott Waves.
• About half of the first waves seen are part of the "basing process" and tend to be heavily corrected by Wave 2. In the case of Bitcoin, wave 2 corrected nearly 94% of wave 1, so that is true.
• Third waves tend to be strong and broad. They are typically unmistakable, as confidence in the direction of the new trend is clearly evident. Wave 3 usually generates the most volume and price movement. We can see that wave 3 was very strong and very broad. More importantly, we can see that wave 3 produced heavy volume and "the most price movement." Volume actually peaked during wave 4, but it was still very high during periods of wave 3. Also, wave 3 rose around 55,000%, which was the most powerful rise. So, these EW facts are also true.
• Fourth waves can be predictable in both depth and form because of the "guideline of alternation." They tend to differ with the previous wave 2 of the same degree. They often trend sideways, building a base for the final wave 5 to spring from. Looking at the chart, we can see that alternation did occur between waves 2 and 4. Wave 4 was much more subdued and sideways than wave 2, so that is also true.
• Fifth waves tend to be less dynamic and display slower speed of price change than the previous waves. They will usually be accompanied by lesser volume. We can see that is also true for BTC's fifth wave. it was a slow and steady rise, until the parabolic point at the end. Also, the volume of wave 5 produced lower peaks over time. So, that is also true to the EW standards.
INFO ON THE ABC CORRECTION:
• During Wave A, the public is convinced that this is just a correction of the previous trend and will rush in to capitalize on it, despite any technically damaging signals. This sets things up for the next wave to follow. That was clearly true, both in general sentiment in the crypto community and the following B wave.
• Wave B catches people in the wrong direction. It performs the task of enticing the suckers to jump into the market. This is where bear or bull traps happen. As a general rule, B Waves tend to show lower volume. We can see that the rise from 3150 to 13800 was on very low volume, so that clearly respects the EW standards. In time, it will likely be viewed as a great "sucker's rally."
• We are currently in wave C. Wave C tends to break the illusions of Wave A and Wave B. In a declining market, it can be devastating and fear takes over with broad participation. Wave c is nowhere near completion. If wave C is a flat, it would bottom around 3000. If it is a zig-zag, it could fall to 1200 or even below 1000. So, now you know what to expect.
VOLUME:
If we look at the volume on the chart on the right, you can see that it has been falling since 2015, while price has been rising. Rising price with falling volume is bearish, and (to the naysayers) that is a fact of technical analysis. Since that volume pattern has been playing out for nearly five years, it is definitely a longer-term bearish indicator. So, that also corresponds with the fact that we are in an ABC corrective wave. It also corresponds with the expectation of a 65-70% fall after the weekly MACD crossed below the zero line. It also corresponds with the fact that the weekly RSI is indicating that we are in a bear market.
NETWORK VALUE TO TRANSACTIONS (NVT):
Looking at the NVT (top indicator on the right chart) we can see that it is close to breaking a rising red trendline support. If that happens, I think it will signal a more powerful expansion lower. Also, the NVT is seeing overhead resistance from the signal line.
SMI INDICATOR:
The bottom indicator on the chart to the right is the SMI indicator. You can see that wave 2, wave 4, and corrective wave A all bottomed on the blue lateral trendline on the SMII. So, this indicator could show the bottom of the C wave as well. I will be watching this indicator, with others, to find the bottom of the C wave. Clearly, there is more room on the downside, and we are nowhere near bottom.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
