As per the charts I've posted previously, I'm quite confident that the bottom is in based on the previous predictions having played out. I'm now looking for confirmation of that bottom, and I think a useful metric for this would be the MACD, which is largely a lagging indicator - as a lagging indicator it will also serve as confirmation.
This first chart, in the weekly time-frame, clearly shows the MACD in close proximity to the zero line. It is turning up, with the histogram contracting, and looks about to cross. Once the MACD crosses into positive territory, it is usually safe to say it is officially in bull territory. The next chart looks at the monthly MACD.
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On the monthly chart, the MACD is still solidly in bull territory [something for those who were calling the correction a bear market to consider], and is currently flattening out ready to move upward again. Where the weekly MACD [above chart] confirms the bottom by moving into positive territory, the monthly MACD would confirm the bottom by simply turning up. Something that may take a month or two to see finally confirmed.
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The last chart [back to the weekly] I find intriguing, and is further evidence in confirmation of the bottom imo. When bissecting the momentum of both the major and minor parabolas, as measured by the MACD, the level of the bissections are the same. Also suggests that this is a level to watch going forward....
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With the monthly chart in mind, where the MACD has remained in bull territory, it makes sense to say that that BTC was never really in a 'bear market'. It was rather in an extended correction [in the medium term] of a long term bull market.
13.8k to 6.5k is a 50% drop, that's a bear market.
However I do think it makes sense to look for recovery here. The elliot counts show it could still take a trip to 5k before the real bottom is in so I'm not getting fully committed yet.
christophercolumbus
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@mljones, not a bear market on the basis of the monthly MACD as charted above~~
christophercolumbus
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@mljones, when the MACD remains above the zero line it technically remains in a bull market.
FXtrai66
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we need to get to 19000 before the end of the week. Let's hope the bulls push. good luck to everyone
ierd
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Just experienced a repeat of March 2020? Or is it something else?
CryptoEesah
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great post, What indicator was the green lines on this?
13.8k to 6.5k is a 50% drop, that's a bear market.
However I do think it makes sense to look for recovery here. The elliot counts show it could still take a trip to 5k before the real bottom is in so I'm not getting fully committed yet.