Testing/tracking elliot wave theory. Please do not trade off idea without S/L. Not financial advice.
Chart timeframe is on the weekly. You can take a look at my previous weekly btc or daily chart. The info is pretty much the same, however on this chart I am zooming out even further for you. The chart on the daily for my previous chart is wrong though, I did not use the full data given to me with that chart. On this BLX chart I have the full data. On the daily I had the bottom marked around 20k and weekly I have it marked around 12k. Regardless of where I have the bottom marked, I will claim both of those charts to be off since I do not have the full data. On this chart I have data going back to 2010 giving me a more accurate wave count. Wave 1-5 on the smaller cycle took us about 11 years. I am expecting wave 3 to go a bit longer, about 12 years. Currently we've finished wave 2 or we're finishing it. Either the bottom is in at -77% or we have one last leg down to 12k, being -81%. Wave 3 price target is 180k (no moonshot).
A long position from today's price your R/R ratio: 12.52
Possible upside: 636%
Possible downside: -50%
A long position from 12k your R/R ratio: 120.33
Possible upside: 1241%
Possible downside: -10% I'd like to say none, we might wick a bit lower, but personally I would claim this to be the bottom and not use any stop losses.
I will dive a bit deeper into this chart below so I don't make this chart too sloppy.
Chart timeframe is on the weekly. You can take a look at my previous weekly btc or daily chart. The info is pretty much the same, however on this chart I am zooming out even further for you. The chart on the daily for my previous chart is wrong though, I did not use the full data given to me with that chart. On this BLX chart I have the full data. On the daily I had the bottom marked around 20k and weekly I have it marked around 12k. Regardless of where I have the bottom marked, I will claim both of those charts to be off since I do not have the full data. On this chart I have data going back to 2010 giving me a more accurate wave count. Wave 1-5 on the smaller cycle took us about 11 years. I am expecting wave 3 to go a bit longer, about 12 years. Currently we've finished wave 2 or we're finishing it. Either the bottom is in at -77% or we have one last leg down to 12k, being -81%. Wave 3 price target is 180k (no moonshot).
A long position from today's price your R/R ratio: 12.52
Possible upside: 636%
Possible downside: -50%
A long position from 12k your R/R ratio: 120.33
Possible upside: 1241%
Possible downside: -10% I'd like to say none, we might wick a bit lower, but personally I would claim this to be the bottom and not use any stop losses.
I will dive a bit deeper into this chart below so I don't make this chart too sloppy.
Comment:
In halving we trust.
I also moved price targets to match where I think the top would be. On the chart below the wave 3 top is 250k and not 180k. I am using the miner's profitability during each halving event to calculate these price targets. According to today's profitability data. This data may change in the future due to mining difficulty, price of mining rigs or electricity cost.