I am a BTC bull, but I see far too many overly optimistic price projections on tradingview. They seem to draw an exponential channel, instead of the current one, that is curved.
While of course it can be that BTC goes out of the current channel, and bursts through the upper resistance, thus reverting back to its original exponential trend, I like to be more conservative. Because as of now, there is still no reason to believe that BTC will do so, only because it has pumped now already 6 months earlier than 4 years ago.
This could just mean that we also reach the peak 6 months earlier.
The fundamental price drivers will remain the halvings and mainstream adoption.
We can also clearly see that the factors between the subsequent peaks is diminishing every time. From x38 to x16 and now probably to around x6 and so on.
It cannot just continue to do the same increases again and again, then we would have prices of 100 million USD by 2025 or some insane stuff like that. That is not very scientific but sensationalist, and we should remain realistic here, even if that means being more conservative. Conservative with 1.3 million in 2030 LOL. Try telling that someone in the stockmarket hehehe!
Anyways, there is indeed the chance that BTC leaves this channel and creates a faster rising one, but the future datapoints are not here yet, so we must use the past points for extrapolation.
But no matter what happens, I am convinced that BTC mainstream adoption WILL happen. It's not an "if" question, but a "when" question.
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It will get interesting now, how fast btc will be in making new all-time highs. It might take a little longer than on this chart, maybe by the end of 2021, and maybe "only" 100k instead of 120k. But then again, it might also surprise us, and indeed reach ATH in July. It all depends now on the growth dynamics of the next months.
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I decided to start a youtube channel, mostly for fun. Here is my first video:
Update: I don't think that this longterm chart is valid any more. Bitcoin should have hit at least 100k in the last cycle, it didn't, which imho implies that there is a new dynamic at work behind BTC's longterm growth. Thus, I think we cannot take the longterm logarithmic growth model for granted any more. It might still happen, but the odds have become less likely.
This is not a chart, this is a retelling from a cryptocurrency almanac. Man, I don't know how you did it, but you're freaking Marty McFly.
Giovi6969
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Not a fan of logarithmic long term projections at all.
But for some psychological reason, if Btc does start a bull run from around here, i am almost certain new comers and hodlers will target the million for this.
First a large correction from around the 180k$ to the 27k$.
Then another parabolic growth targetting the million, with everyone and his mother mining Satoshis on their phones with factory preinstalled Btc mining app.
Utopia never hurts nobody.
Hyperbitcoinization would be on its way.
SebastianofMoon
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@Giorgioversace, Thanks for commenting! Well, I wouldn't have anything against your scenario. It would be fun indeed. In that case it would take far shorter time to reach the million. Either way, then long route or the fast route, it is going to be a fun ride :)
bits2sats
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@FlaviusTodorius67, Did you take into account fiat debasement? Keep in mind the money supply growth of Federal Reserve dropped massively in the last bull market (QE 3 had ended and QT just started). Now rates are being cut again, with almost certainty of another QE. I would say a better measure of Bitcoin price is against Gold which has had a relatively predictable supply growth.
drdanishhaider
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@FlaviusTodorius67, Your chart is correct. coming decade is only building phase and it will slowly get adopted. Nothibg happens overnight
ShareTheVive
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well, this chart was made on 2019 and you seem to be right on track... same goes for your 2018 BLX chart!
AthenticWhale1
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Once in a lifetime opportunity. Great chart.
SebastianofMoon
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@AthenticWhale1, Thanks a lot :) Yes, Bitcoin is really an amazing opportunity for everyone intelligent and tech savvy enough to understand the absolutely disruptive potential of bitcoin.
ReallyMe
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Good analysis. I wish you were right. What I am currently thinking... The road to Heaven leads through Hell. And we haven't been there yet. ;-)
BearFuck
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@ReallyMe, If you invest 1% of capital in Bitcoin and Hell happens you will loss just 0.5-0.9% of your capital. But if you win and x100 happens ($1 000 000 per BTC) you will double your capital.