So after releasing the last chart where we contemplated the possibility that BTC might enter a mini bearmarket, and that the real top will come in 2023 (lengthening cycle theory), now let's see how high bitcoin would go, if it would resume pumping already in the next days or at least this month.
We actually have a nice historical comparison, namely the 2011 rally. The monthly chart this cycle looks remarkably similar to the weekly chart in 2011.
Even the structure with the red candle before the rally started is somewhat similar.
And then after 5 straight weeklys, we had a sideways week in 2011. This is happening exactly with BTC, but it's already been longer.
If BTC would now continue a similar structure as in 2011, we would see the pump resume already very soon, the monthly candle in May must then be green and quite high. We would see the top in August at around 140k, because if it already pumps soon, I can't see it breaking through the upper band strongly.
That is why I actually hope for a longer sideways consolidation now, but I just wanted to show that this scenario here could also happen.
We have no way of knowing what BTC will exactly do, all we can do is ponder some different possibilities, and have a strategy for each single one.
So, ok, what would I do if BTC pumps to 140k by august? What would I do if BTC goes sideways or minibearmarket for 1 year and the real top in July 2023? What would I do if BTC went sideways for a few more months and then the top at 300k in December?
If one is prepared for all scenarios, then everything will be fine, either way. One should never bet on one scenario though, that is unwise and what destroys many traders. They want this one scenario, it must be like this, if not, then bad luck.
Anyways, we will hopefully soon find out which path BTC will take.
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This scenario has now become basically ruled out with the latest dump. My initial feeling was confirmed, see here:
what if the double bubble already happened for bitcoin? We had mini bull run in 2019, took a 60% nosedive in March 2020 very similar to 2013 and now rallied all the way to 65k which is the 1.618 fib rejection from 20k-3k. Like Im starting to see striking similarities saying this is the end of the bull market. ALT season is in full bloom, low cap alts are mooning. People getting defensive when you challenge their beliefs. On the technicals, bearish MACD crossover on the weekly. Bearish divergence yet to play out on weekly. Everytime the MACD on the weekly crossed, we entered a bear market. Only way to know for sure is if and when we retest the bull market support band. If it becomes resistance, I think the bull run is over.
CrashWhen
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@realisticDiamo79435, Also, everyone is expecting bitcoin to hit six figures even seven figures possibly this market cycle. Came to this realization sunday night, cashed out of crypto. Glad i sold my BTC at $59400, but missed the 4k ETH. I hope im wrong and Ill have to buy back higher, but Bitcoin on the longer timeframes is not screaming "ATH soon". In fact, looks like a rounded top on the daily
anonycoin
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100K is very realistic price we can get in the near time, & it is climax, the question is if it does correction at the max, how much correction it will be ? & how much bounce it will be ? That's the ultimate question
rara03p
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Interesting perspective thanks for sharing
watchtrend
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Good idea
CrashWhen
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I think it is very dependent on stimulus and stock market. If stock market corrects, I really don't see how bitcoin does not follow. And stock market correcting will depend on stimulus approval
Lemniscate
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@realisticDiamo79435, i disagree, because
1- of couse they will be a stimu;us, same game again and again for 40y+
2- no correlations
CrashWhen
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@Lemniscate, Agree on the stimulus, but timing is very important. 2) I disagree, I'm of the opinion that there is a correlation between BTC and the stock market. I disagree on the notion that Bitcoin is a good hedge. Look at March 2020, when the stock market crashed 30%, bitcoin crashed 60%
Lemniscate
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@realisticDiamo79435, look thr past 10 y not one episode 6 month ago in a out of the norm event
fondDiamond52535
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Glad to see your article today.
Many novice investors want only one foolproof conclusion, even though they know it will be impossible. I'm the one.. I felt my stupidity while reading your writing today. At the same time, I felt the frustration and difficulty that you must have felt. We need to recognise, keep an eye on and respond to all possibility. But I'm still at a loss. The scenario of decline and long correction is little frightening. cause my bet to was based on one scenario 😭