In trading cryptocurrency practice, the questions arise such as: - how to predict how long the crisis or euphoria phase from the arrival of money will be? - when to expect the next collapse? - what to do between explicit margin calls? - what information to rely on and how to weed out irrelevant?
Observing the market and its reaction to the news in the background, including the preparation of the collapse, you can notice that the news alternates: good - bad - good - bad - ... If the news does not carry the size of the apocalypse, they are usually grouped to enhance the impact. The spread of information in society or the growth of a population with certain information can be schematically represented by a logistic curve.
At first, few people are interested in a certain instrument. Investors are afraid of buying it, and its price fluctuates around the origin. At this time, the elite, single-handedly possessing important information, begin to buy it, the price rises slightly. In the next step, the information is shared with a small group of insiders. Individual purchases develop into active buying. The price of the instrument starts growing rapidly. The crowd is perplexed and cannot understand what is the reason. At the third stage, news comes out and investors, fearing don't catch the last train out of town, buy this instrument. At the same time, the “elite” and “confidants” happily sell to them at the maximum price (with joy, because at this time the “elite” has new information that the "elite" took into account, a new logistic curve begins in another instrument or the same, but in reverse, sales begin). The third stage ends when the whole society knows about what's happening. They discuss it on public transport, everyone who could have already made a decision and bought it. There is no one else to sell.
The most important thing is to determine at what stage the price of the asset is now, which you paid attention to, and about which you received some information. To buy some kind of cryptocurrency and remain a holder for the rest of your life is an unattractive prospect. If you buy a cryptocurrency, then either with the ability to receive superprofits, or with the possibility of project growth in the long term, or both. You should decide if there is a bet on the value growth. I will not show complex mathematical calculations, so as not to scare away the reader. Elliott waves can be recognized and applied.
The main thing is not to get into the crowd at stage 3. In fact, if from every possible angle(financial newspapers, news sites, on TV) there is a discussion of an idea, it is no longer news, this crowds of investors are being misled, and this idea should not be used as a defining one for your actions (unless with a different direction, just the opposite).
@EXCAVO Master EXCAVO, your treatise "Logistic curve – explain everything" in my opinion ranks up there with some of the greatest practical wisdom to the art of crypto trading. I highly respect your erudition and sagacity that you share with crypto-traders. I have followed you since your trading view inception and you have always been humble and understanding of neophytes. Crypto trading is much richer because of you, and the crypto world will have grown from your love and support of it.
Nice write up - thanks. In way I suppose this is just the philology of crowds at work.
The prospect of holding a crypto currency for an extended period of time might seem attractive form what return you could expect. On the other hand it is terrifying knowing 90% of the coins out there will no longer exist in the years ahead.
"At first, few people are interested in a certain instrument. Investors are afraid of buying it, and its price fluctuates around the origin. At this time, the elite, single-highhandedly possessing important information, begin to buy it, the price rises slightly. In the next step, the information is shared with a small group of insiders. Individual purchases develop into active buying."
Outside Crypto there is one industry I'm seeing this behaviour repeatably. Volume pouring into a stock that has not seen it for years. I'll write it off as an anomaly. But then I'll find another and in the same sector with mystery volume from no where. What is this sector?! Biotech. Scroll through the Nasdaq, you'll see lots of small Biotech business with huge volume coming in. I think the technology that was applied to develop the Covid RNA vaccine is about to find its way into treatments for virus born diseases.
impermanence404
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@without_worries, hey since you wrote this " I think the technology that was applied to develop the Covid RNA vaccine is about to find its way into treatments for virus born diseases." can I join your Information group?
without_worries
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@impermanence404, I don't think we're taking new members at the moment and is around $500 a month last a I checked.
I salute you.