Plenty of self proclaimed experts, or even "legends" calling to invest ("invest") in Bit-con.
Let me tell you I would not buy Bitcoin, even if I had a cristal ball.
If we assume Bitcoin is really going "to the moon" and keep being as exponentially bullish as the past, the best possible scenario would bring its marketcap to 2 trillion in 4 years (that is ALOT of money going into CrimeCoin).
Ok if I had a cristal ball telling me this would happen I would put some money in to be safe & pray my action does not change future events.
All these self proclaimed pro's and bosses are so full of it.
In my little calculation I took a winrate of 2/3, meaning your Win/Lose is 2.
That is pretty ambitious but I am comparing this to a super optimistic Bitcon route.
Plus on FX sites & copytrade sites you have plenty of guy that manage 1.5+ over thousands of trades (so RR1 & winrate 60% OR RR2 & winrate 43%).
If clowns selling signals and random people on FX sharing sites manage 1.5 and more, 2 is not that crazy to imagine.
The result with 1.5 is not as big as 2 but still big and comparable or better than Bitcoin 3000% (buying very bottom selling very top), with still a 0 risk of ruin.
And no frozen capital. etc...
The risk of ruin misses one thing thought: massive slippage. Well if you risk 2% with a 1 ATR SL, you'll never blow up. NatGas recently had a short squeeze, it went up 3 ATR in 1 hour and killed optionsellers.com.
EURCHF in 2015 had a slippage of 15-20 ATR in 1 hour. With 2% risk to lose all you'd need a slippage of 50 ATR! That doesn't even happen on penny stocks.
And retail traders are protected so you can't lose more than what you have with a broker.
Buying Bitcoin with all your money thought? Hah good luck with that one. So much can go wrong.
Let me show you how the risk of ruin is calculated.
(1-Edge)/(1+Edge)^U
With 66% winrate RR 1 the edge is 0.33 because 0.66666-0.3333 = 0.33333
With the 1.5's the edge is 60% winrate RR1 ==> 0.6-0.4 = 0.2 OR 40% WR RR2 ==> (0.40*2 - 0.6*1) = 0.8-0.6 = 0.2
I just found a 44% WR RR2 on a site visible to everyone, that edge is 0.88-0.56 = 0.32 so don't tell me it's not possible.
I don't think I am allowed to post links but it's really easy to find. FX sites with systems and verified trading history and stats...
U = the maximum number of risks that can be taken before the individual reaches their threshold for ruin
Ok here is one. Only 300 trades thought.
Trades: 331
Average Win: 214.39 pips / $68.85
Average Loss: -107.72 pips / -$38.58
Commissions: -$279.02
Longs Won: (65/167) 38%
Shorts Won: (83/164) 50%
Best Trade($): (Aug 10) 300.56
Worst Trade($): (Feb 14) -115.80
Avg. Trade Length: 1d
So, the risk of ruin (considering you're done at 50 losses > wins correct me if I am wrong) with such an example that has an edge of 0.333:
(1-0.3333)/(1+0.3333)^50 = very very small number.
Sites with calculators just give 0.
So why would anyone good at the game waste their time and money with this ponzi?
"Oh but the big funds never make huge % gains 3000 is massive" Ok smartass they're not allowed to have drawdowns of 10% so obviously they won't be all in Bitcoin.
If you're comparing all in PonziCoin to make 3000% then I think an example where one risks 2% per trade and has a RoR of 0.000000000000000000000000000000000 is actually very biased towards Bitcoin. To have a fair comparison we would have to get a risk of ruin higher and risk much more per trade. The positive outcome would be so much greater than 20,000%.
When you actually run the numbers, all these clowns that act like they know something are so full of it.
If they're so good and are risking everything on PonziCoin, then why not use their superior legendary mastery of markets to risk everything scalping/daytrading/swinging it and make MASSIVE returns? Risk would be the same but returns immensly greaters. Even if they go 20% in ponzicoin, that 20% capital would be better used trading with their master skillZ.
Why don't they do this? Because they're trash and full of it. That's why.
Yet hundreds of thousands of sheep follow them and cheer (as well as clowns chasing 50 to 1 risk rewards), why? Because they are brainlets that cannot add 2 numbers.
"Investing" in Bitcoin is the stupidest thing anyone could do, regardless of it going up or not.
Aren't these wannabee hedge funds down 80% too? Gee that's really good. Typical funds that return consistently 15% a year while having a drawdown limit of 5%, what would they return with a limit at 80%? Funds have tried in the past to hold and wait for recessions to buy like Warren Buffet, but their clients won't let them. What if these guys had cryptards as clients? No limits! Wait 5 years for the crash, then buy with leverage risk it all.
Who is the best trader/manager, the guy returning 15% a year but with 5 possible drawdown, or the guy returning 25% but potential drawdown is 15%? Or the guy returning 300% but potential drawdown is 90% (lol...)
People are just so awful at maths.... Clowns. No wonder wall street is afraid mathematicians and algo's are dominating the business, how good kids are at maths at school has severly deteriorated the past decades, and now people that have the ability to add 2 numbers are playing against mathematically illiterate brainlets.
Also, stock market has also gone up 10000% if you used the right leverage/borrowed money...
And don't the FXscamLFidiotsTOsellAcourseTO totally legit traders selling courses all claim they made 5000% returns a year or more? "23 yo 1.5 millionaire that started 2 years ago with 8 grans" that is a 18750% return in 2 years.
If you compare 2 things then you should consider an equal risk... So obvious... "I can make way more jumping off a plane with no parachute that working as a bouncer for a bar" Uh then compare jumping off a plane to working as a bouncer for a crimelord then...
My brain hurts hearing or reading these cryptoers...
Anyone (looking to actively trade) serious about this. Just... write it down and calculate it all. Otherwise just go to the casino at least they have flashy neons and drinks.
Let me tell you I would not buy Bitcoin, even if I had a cristal ball.
If we assume Bitcoin is really going "to the moon" and keep being as exponentially bullish as the past, the best possible scenario would bring its marketcap to 2 trillion in 4 years (that is ALOT of money going into CrimeCoin).
Ok if I had a cristal ball telling me this would happen I would put some money in to be safe & pray my action does not change future events.
All these self proclaimed pro's and bosses are so full of it.
In my little calculation I took a winrate of 2/3, meaning your Win/Lose is 2.
That is pretty ambitious but I am comparing this to a super optimistic Bitcon route.
Plus on FX sites & copytrade sites you have plenty of guy that manage 1.5+ over thousands of trades (so RR1 & winrate 60% OR RR2 & winrate 43%).
If clowns selling signals and random people on FX sharing sites manage 1.5 and more, 2 is not that crazy to imagine.
The result with 1.5 is not as big as 2 but still big and comparable or better than Bitcoin 3000% (buying very bottom selling very top), with still a 0 risk of ruin.
And no frozen capital. etc...
The risk of ruin misses one thing thought: massive slippage. Well if you risk 2% with a 1 ATR SL, you'll never blow up. NatGas recently had a short squeeze, it went up 3 ATR in 1 hour and killed optionsellers.com.
EURCHF in 2015 had a slippage of 15-20 ATR in 1 hour. With 2% risk to lose all you'd need a slippage of 50 ATR! That doesn't even happen on penny stocks.
And retail traders are protected so you can't lose more than what you have with a broker.
Buying Bitcoin with all your money thought? Hah good luck with that one. So much can go wrong.
Let me show you how the risk of ruin is calculated.
(1-Edge)/(1+Edge)^U
With 66% winrate RR 1 the edge is 0.33 because 0.66666-0.3333 = 0.33333
With the 1.5's the edge is 60% winrate RR1 ==> 0.6-0.4 = 0.2 OR 40% WR RR2 ==> (0.40*2 - 0.6*1) = 0.8-0.6 = 0.2
I just found a 44% WR RR2 on a site visible to everyone, that edge is 0.88-0.56 = 0.32 so don't tell me it's not possible.
I don't think I am allowed to post links but it's really easy to find. FX sites with systems and verified trading history and stats...
U = the maximum number of risks that can be taken before the individual reaches their threshold for ruin
Ok here is one. Only 300 trades thought.
Trades: 331
Average Win: 214.39 pips / $68.85
Average Loss: -107.72 pips / -$38.58
Commissions: -$279.02
Longs Won: (65/167) 38%
Shorts Won: (83/164) 50%
Best Trade($): (Aug 10) 300.56
Worst Trade($): (Feb 14) -115.80
Avg. Trade Length: 1d
So, the risk of ruin (considering you're done at 50 losses > wins correct me if I am wrong) with such an example that has an edge of 0.333:
(1-0.3333)/(1+0.3333)^50 = very very small number.
Sites with calculators just give 0.
So why would anyone good at the game waste their time and money with this ponzi?
"Oh but the big funds never make huge % gains 3000 is massive" Ok smartass they're not allowed to have drawdowns of 10% so obviously they won't be all in Bitcoin.
If you're comparing all in PonziCoin to make 3000% then I think an example where one risks 2% per trade and has a RoR of 0.000000000000000000000000000000000 is actually very biased towards Bitcoin. To have a fair comparison we would have to get a risk of ruin higher and risk much more per trade. The positive outcome would be so much greater than 20,000%.
When you actually run the numbers, all these clowns that act like they know something are so full of it.
If they're so good and are risking everything on PonziCoin, then why not use their superior legendary mastery of markets to risk everything scalping/daytrading/swinging it and make MASSIVE returns? Risk would be the same but returns immensly greaters. Even if they go 20% in ponzicoin, that 20% capital would be better used trading with their master skillZ.
Why don't they do this? Because they're trash and full of it. That's why.
Yet hundreds of thousands of sheep follow them and cheer (as well as clowns chasing 50 to 1 risk rewards), why? Because they are brainlets that cannot add 2 numbers.
"Investing" in Bitcoin is the stupidest thing anyone could do, regardless of it going up or not.
Aren't these wannabee hedge funds down 80% too? Gee that's really good. Typical funds that return consistently 15% a year while having a drawdown limit of 5%, what would they return with a limit at 80%? Funds have tried in the past to hold and wait for recessions to buy like Warren Buffet, but their clients won't let them. What if these guys had cryptards as clients? No limits! Wait 5 years for the crash, then buy with leverage risk it all.
Who is the best trader/manager, the guy returning 15% a year but with 5 possible drawdown, or the guy returning 25% but potential drawdown is 15%? Or the guy returning 300% but potential drawdown is 90% (lol...)
People are just so awful at maths.... Clowns. No wonder wall street is afraid mathematicians and algo's are dominating the business, how good kids are at maths at school has severly deteriorated the past decades, and now people that have the ability to add 2 numbers are playing against mathematically illiterate brainlets.
Also, stock market has also gone up 10000% if you used the right leverage/borrowed money...
And don't the FXscamLFidiotsTOsellAcourseTO totally legit traders selling courses all claim they made 5000% returns a year or more? "23 yo 1.5 millionaire that started 2 years ago with 8 grans" that is a 18750% return in 2 years.
If you compare 2 things then you should consider an equal risk... So obvious... "I can make way more jumping off a plane with no parachute that working as a bouncer for a bar" Uh then compare jumping off a plane to working as a bouncer for a crimelord then...
My brain hurts hearing or reading these cryptoers...
Anyone (looking to actively trade) serious about this. Just... write it down and calculate it all. Otherwise just go to the casino at least they have flashy neons and drinks.